Jurrien Timmer – Taking stock of the markets
Stay up-to-date with the markets as Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer weighs in on the latest developments.
After the comeback
What’s next after the V-shaped reversal? Jurrien believes the four lenses of earnings, liquidity, valuation and sentiment remain moderately constructive for risk assets.
An improving narrative?
Against a backdrop of a sentiment extreme in December, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, sees 3 reasons why the stock market’s narrative could be about to improve.
Context is everything
Jurrien looks at the “mini-bears” of 1994, 1998 and 2011 and notes that in all three cases, the stock market corrected and the central bank pivoted within the context of continued economic growth. However, he cautions that no two corrections are alike: Context is everything.
Anatomy of a Drawdown
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, calls 2018 “the year of the reset”. He talks about why 2019 is looking better for him.
Outlook 2019: Solving the math puzzle
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, feels that following the 23% decline in valuations, investors are better compensated for an uncertain future.
Lessons from the Sixties
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, says the 5-year correlation between stocks and bond yields peaked in 2015 and has come down steadily since. Will it flip to negative like it did during the mid-1960s? Jurrien believes that a lower correlation between stocks and yields will have implications for investors.
Purgatory lies at the intersection of “E” & “r”
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, says that as scary as market volatility has been of late, he believes this is exactly what the market should be doing based on the inescapable math of the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. We are at the intersection of “E” (earnings growth) and “r” (cost of capital) – which he calls “market purgatory”.
Mind the gap
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, asks if the U.S. Federal Reserve policy is “easier” than most thought it was. He concludes that the Fed is probably further below neutral than anyone thought – which supports his view that a sell signal from an inverted yield curve over the next 12 to18 months likely will prove premature.