The monthly Timmer market report

Jurrien Timmer – Taking stock of the markets

Stay up-to-date with the markets as Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer weighs in on the latest developments.

Revisiting the secular context

July 2019

Will investors experience an extended business cycle? Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, examines the implications of recent Fed interest rate cuts and changing P/E ratios on the global business cycle.

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What’s the price of uncertainty?

June 2019

Jurrien feels that the price of a prolonged period of uncertainty is a lower P/E multiple. However, investors seem to be concerned more with yield and cash flow and less with what price they have to pay for each dollar of earnings.

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Both sides of the buyback debate

June 2019

With the topic of share buybacks taking up more and more of the conversation these days, Jurrien says it’s worth trying to quantify their impact on the stock market.

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After the comeback

May 2019

What’s next after the V-shaped reversal? Jurrien believes the four lenses of earnings, liquidity, valuation and sentiment remain moderately constructive for risk assets.

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An improving narrative?

April 2019

Against a backdrop of a sentiment extreme in December, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, sees 3 reasons why the stock market’s narrative could be about to improve.

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Context is everything

March 2019

Jurrien looks at the “mini-bears” of 1994, 1998 and 2011 and notes that in all three cases, the stock market corrected and the central bank pivoted within the context of continued economic growth. However, he cautions that no two corrections are alike: Context is everything.

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Anatomy of a Drawdown

February 2019

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, calls 2018 “the year of the reset”. He talks about why 2019 is looking better for him.

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Outlook 2019: Solving the math puzzle

January 2019

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, feels that following the 23% decline in valuations, investors are better compensated for an uncertain future.

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