FidelityConnects: Jurrien Timmer – The global macro view June 8, 2026

 

 

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<b>Subtitles are AI Generated</b>

 

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Hello, and welcome to Fidelity Connects.

 

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I'm Pamela Ritchie. Stocks are bouncing back today, playing out

 

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a chapter in the debate about how much of a hold the so-called left tail

 

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has upon markets.

 

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How will the new Fed chair navigate rate expectations that fit along

 

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with that story and what sort of reaction will the monthly CPI report generate

 

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this week in markets?

 

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Earnings and IPOs lend great strength to the right tail with a

 

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bullish tone extending now, if tripping last Friday.

 

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A big question for our next guest is whether an overall broadening is

 

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visible in equities as massive new AI firms come

 

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to market. Joining us here today is Fidelity Director of Global

 

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Macro, Jurrien Timmer.

 

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A warm welcome to you, Jurrien. How are you?

 

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I'm well, thank you. I'm a few days away from embarking on my

 

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three-week long Asia tour so

 

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kind of moving west. I'm on the west coast today and then Wednesday night fly

 

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to Seoul, Korea, and then go from there.

 

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So getting excited for that.

 

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We're really excited to speak with you before that.

 

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I'll always note that you have been biking for many years.

 

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You got bikes behind you there. I'll just mention before we jump off here that

 

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we're taking a moment to highlight

 

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... I'm just gonna get the prompter to scroll there for a second ...

 

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to highlight to our advisors the Fidelity Canada Strava

 

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Challenge. You can see it up there on the screen.

 

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Strava is a free mobile app that lets you track your workouts

 

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and log your fitness activity.

 

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This month, so in June, Fidelity Canada has launched the 300-minute

 

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challenge. Since launching, that was last week, we already

 

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have more than 3,000 participants, including portfolio manager David Tulk.

 

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If you'd like to take part and stay active this month you can certainly join

 

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the Fidelity Canada Club and complete the challenge, earn

 

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a digital Strava finisher's badge.

 

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To get started you can just scan the QR code, it's right there on your screen,

 

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or download the Strava app from your phone's app store, and

 

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join the Fidelity Canada Club.

 

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I already signed up too.

 

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Did you already sign up?

 

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You can start logging your activity.

 

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So Jurrien, we've got David Tulk, lots of people in there.

 

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We'll see how everyone adds up their points over the course of the next

 

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little bit. That's great.

 

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Back to the markets, let's talk a little bit about how we should be

 

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interpreting what happened on Friday.

 

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Markets are back to good form. Here they are today, this is the equity story.

 

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What should we be watching for broadly?

 

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Let's go to slide 1, the heat map, which

 

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nobody will be able to read but I'll just kind of point you to the things

 

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that are on the move, if you will.

 

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This remains a tale of two tails, or a market

 

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that is being dominated by both an extreme right

 

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tail, if you look at the green parts on that

 

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map you can see it.

 

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Earnings are growing at over 20%.

 

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Margins are rising by the week,

 

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basically. Credit spreads are at the lows, very low, benign

 

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levels.

 

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That's the right tail. A market that is seeing earnings

 

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explode higher the way it is almost can't help but

 

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go up. The

 

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right tail has to do with earnings and, of course, AI and all of that stuff

 

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that we all know.

 

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The left tail has to do with valuation, valuations come under pressure,

 

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and we've talked about this many times, when the risk-free asset

 

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becomes competitive and is rising in yield, meaning

 

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it's getting cheaper.

 

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About two-thirds on the way down in that table you can see that

 

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the market is now expecting Fed rate hikes

 

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in part because of that very robust payroll report on

 

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Friday which comes in addition to purchasing manager

 

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surveys going up and, obviously, the ongoing stress in

 

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the Strait of Hormuz.

 

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We see real rates go up, nominal yields go up,

 

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expectations for the Fed to raise rates.

 

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That tail kind of came out and bit

 

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us, basically, on Friday.

 

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Today it's back to the right tail.

 

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I was discussing with a few colleagues last week that

 

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if there's one thing that really surprised me among all the

 

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things that are sort of unusual these days, which there are many of, is

 

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that over the last year the bond market has been so

 

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incredibly calm. Remember a year ago with the tariff tantrum

 

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we thought foreign investors were going to flee and no one was going to be left

 

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to buy Treasuries and this and that.

 

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Here we are at 4.5, we're at 4.53, and it's just

 

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eerily quiet. I don't want to dare say it but it's almost as

 

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if the market is being manipulated by the Treasury

 

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Department. I have no firsthand knowledge of that but it's

 

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a little odd. It's the left and the right till, the right tail,

 

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of course, has been dominating purely because the left tail

 

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requires the 10-year yield to go significantly above 4.5

 

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into what I call the danger zone.

 

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As long as it doesn't do that the right tail can dominate.

 

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Last Friday we got some cold water thrown on

 

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us, especially in light of all of the enthusiasm

 

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about the big IPOs that are coming.

 

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It just shows you that when trades get crowded

 

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and there's a lot of enthusiasm that it

 

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doesn't take much to spoil the party.

 

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As we're seeing they're very sort of temporary shakeouts.

 

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We continue to navigate those two tails and the key is

 

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to have a portfolio that can withstand both of them acting up at the

 

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same time if that someday happens.

 

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Let's begin just a bit further with the left tail, the discussion of

 

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rates. The jobs report was blow the lights out

 

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higher than anyone thought in terms of ads, unemployment rates stayed the

 

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same, which is very low.

 

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Then you had PCE, which I wouldn't mind getting your thoughts on, but we're

 

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also looking towards this week of another inflation print, CPI

 

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coming out. It's just a lot in this area that seems to be confirming

 

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over and over again, which is exactly what led to the jitters.

 

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What are you seeing in those reports that maybe some we can ignore and some

 

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we really can't.

 

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Let's go to slide 10.

 

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The inflation story I think is pretty

 

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important and the markets are not really focused

 

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on it. Here's the PCE

 

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and the core PCE.

 

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The Fed generally looks at the core PCE but I'm wondering if that

 

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is sort of an outdated concept because

 

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most people have to buy food at the grocery store and put gas in their car

 

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so I don't know that the distinction between core and headline is

 

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as meaningful as it used to be because

 

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the inflation actually is coming from where it hurts.

 

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You see that the inflation is hooking back up.

 

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It went from half a per cent to 7%,

 

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came back down but it never even went below the Fed's

 

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target of 2%.

 

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Now it's above it and rising.

 

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If you look at the bottom panel you see that every single month of the

 

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last five years the inflation rate has come in above the

 

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Fed's target. I mean, that's a pretty daunting statistic.

 

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Meanwhile, you look at the TIPS breakevens and it's like, well, there's

 

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nothing to see here.

 

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If we take that a step further we go to slide 11 and we

 

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compare that to the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index which

 

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are the black bars there. There is clearly a

 

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disconnect between what the market is expecting from inflation and what

 

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the commodity markets are actually doing.

 

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The only explanations I have for that is that the market believes in

 

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mean reversion. Maybe inflation is running at

 

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3 1/2 but the Fed's on the job, inflation always mean reverts

 

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back down to 2 and it will this time as well,

 

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a more negative implication or interpretation

 

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would be that the bond market is cynically assuming

 

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that even if the BCOM Spot Index is correct

 

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it will lead to demand destruction and that will bring inflation back down.

 

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That would be a very bad way for inflation to come down.

 

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That brings us back to the Strait of Hormuz, which is slide 7, still

 

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very little good is happening there.

 

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The rockets were flaring again last night.

 

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You see the the spot, the WTI, you see

 

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the 12-month forward is that 75, that's not crazy high

 

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but it's as high as it's been since this conflict started four months

 

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ago. There is really no resolution in sight.

 

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If you look at the bottom there, that is the inventory level

 

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at Cushing, that's getting depleted towards sort of

 

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the kind of levels where you start to worry.

 

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When the conflict started the market assumed this would be over in two weeks

 

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and it's now been four months. At some point I would imagine

 

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that the physical markets, the oil markets and the distillates

 

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and refined products, are going to get chaotic

 

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because oil is fungible but it's not that fungible.

 

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You have to move it around.

 

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This remains a risk.

 

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That drives that left tail because the longer this happens the more embedded

 

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the inflation data become.

 

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At some point the bond market has to pay attention

 

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via the Fed model.

 

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So far the bond yield has gone up from 3+ to 4.5 entirely

 

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because real rates have gone up. The inflation expectations still

 

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are at 2.5%.

 

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If that were to ever change you could easily see 5%

 

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on the bond.

 

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I can tell you that the stock market would definitely take notice if that were

 

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to happen. So far that the right tail is winning and that's

 

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because earnings are booming.

 

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It does seem to be that there is a third discussion in here

 

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rather than just a resolution or not in terms of the market impact.

 

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That is just sort of nobody's a winner or a loser.

 

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There's still sort of risk and there's still some squirmishes going back and

 

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forth, maybe some rockets, it doesn't fully resolve.

 

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As a result oil stays high-ish.

 

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How is that gonna work out?

 

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I agree. We spoke to an oil expert last

 

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week in our meeting among my colleagues and I.

 

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If there is not a totally clear resolution and

 

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sort of like the US calls it a win

 

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and they withdraw but Iran still kind of controls

 

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the flow and extracts a toll or this or that,

 

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will shipping actually return to normal under those circumstances?

 

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If you're a legitimate oil

 

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shipment company and you need to get insurance and you need to pass

 

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through the Strait of Hormuz, how comfortable are you going to be that that's

 

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going to all go seamlessly?

 

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Maybe the traffic goes up from where it is now, which

 

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is near zero, but it only goes halfway to normal.

 

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You can see how bottlenecks and friction

 

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will remain, or could remain, in the oil markets and that could keep

 

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oil prices elevated.

 

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That's the last thing we need when inflation did

 

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round trip from 7 back to 3 but it didn't go beyond that.

 

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Meanwhile, the 5-year inflation rate is at 4.3% and

 

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rising. It's definitely a worry that without a

 

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clean resolution in one way or the other that that area will

 

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always kind of have a mark on it, if you will.

 

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Yeah, and just be more expensive, ultimately, for everyone involved.

 

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Just to go back to TIPS for a second, the discussion and the data and the

 

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way that you invest in those to help you protect against inflation, ultimately,

 

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would you say that it's

 

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reflecting all that you need to know?

 

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I mean, they're often used, as you do, as a data point.

 

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There are skeptics that go too far on whether all data points are useful or not

 

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but I just wonder how you address some of that skepticism these days.

 

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We go back to slide 11. It's something I'm actually doing a

 

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deep dive on.

 

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I'm going to have a 13-hour flight to Korea soon so maybe I'll

 

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play with it there.

 

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It's interesting, the TIPS market is kind of a curious market.

 

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I wonder if the breakevens,

 

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which is the implied expected inflation rate, if there

 

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really is a signal there in the same way that I used to

 

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think that the oil strip carried a signal in terms of

 

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being a contango or backward dated, it

 

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appears that there really isn't a signal.

 

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It's just a mathematical algorithm based on storage cost

 

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and convenience yields and those types of things.

 

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With the TIPS, that breakeven is a residual between the

 

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10-year Treasury yield, which is at 4.5, and the real

 

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yield, which is the yield that you get when you buy TIPS.

 

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When you buy TIPS you get a real yield and that real yield for the 5-year is

 

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currently 1.5%.

 

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For the 10-year it'll be over 2%.

 

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The inflation breakeven is just the residual of the two.

 

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It's not so much perhaps that the market is taking a

 

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view on inflation and saying therefore the 5-year breakeven should

 

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be this or that, it's just the nominals are trading

 

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at X and that's because of real yields, of term

 

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premia and expectations for the Fed and all kinds of other things.

 

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The TIPS market is yielding right now about 2% real which is actually

 

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pretty good.

 

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Maybe those are the things we need to look at.

 

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You can be right on TIPS in terms of saying the TIPS market is

 

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underappreciating the inflation threat or over

 

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appreciating it and you could still be wrong on owning them because they are

 

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bonds and they're long duration bonds. It's kind of a

 

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curious market and I do wanna learn more about

 

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whether the signal that we all look at, we're all looking at those TIPS

 

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breakevens, whether there actually is a signal or not.

 

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That's fascinating. I don't wish you the 13-hour

 

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flight but we'll be excited for whatever research issues from that very long

 

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flight. Tell us a little bit about when we see the sell-offs, for instance,

 

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Friday, and the sell buttons are hit

 

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what people are buying back into and how different it is from what it

 

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was, I don't know, four months ago.

 

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This is actually really cool. If we go

 

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to slide 2 I show the cap-weighted S&P, the equal-weighted S&P

 

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and then breadth in the pink there.

 

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You can clearly see that the cap-weighted S&P fell a lot more than the

 

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equal-weighted on Friday. It went down 2.6% and the equal-weighed went

 

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down 1.4%.

 

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That tells you this is a mega-cap growth trade.

 

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If you think mega-cap growth you're thinking of AI.

 

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If we go to slide 3, Goldman Sachs

 

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has all these equity baskets that are very, very useful.

 

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They have an AI basket, which is the blue line, and

 

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they have a S&P ex AI basket, which is the pink one.

 

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That basket actually was unchanged on Friday even though the

 

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S&Ps went down 2.6%.

 

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It tells you that this is all

 

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AI.

 

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The market is now more AI than not AI in terms of

 

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its market cap.

 

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It's really the dominating trade and not just in the US.

 

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If you go to the MSCI Emerging Market Index

 

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it's South Korea and Taiwan which are the two big

 

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semiconductor companies and it's like 40% of the

 

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index. EM has been on fire but it's

 

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not really a hedge anymore because it's the same trade as the S&P.

 

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You have to go to Europe and Japan to really get diversification.

 

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The ex AI index is not even back to the pre-Iran

 

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conflict highs.

 

17:46.131 --> 17:50.235

What this chart tells me is that if

 

17:50.235 --> 17:54.506

and when the froth comes off the AI trade, and I'm

 

17:54.506 --> 17:59.178

not indicating that it's all froth, he earnings are, of course, there, the

 

17:59.178 --> 18:03.215

market will go down just because it's a cap-weighted market and it's

 

18:03.215 --> 18:07.286

very concentrated but there'll be stocks that will

 

18:07.286 --> 18:11.490

be going up. It's just how do you harvest that

 

18:11.490 --> 18:15.761

if you're in a highly concentrated, cap-heavy

 

18:15.761 --> 18:19.164

market. That's one of the challenges.

 

18:19.164 --> 18:23.735

For instance, if we go to slide 6,

 

18:23.735 --> 18:29.108

this is the S&P Semiconductor Index,

 

18:29.108 --> 18:31.376

you can see just vertical that's been.

 

18:31.376 --> 18:35.481

The earnings are growing so fast that even with

 

18:35.481 --> 18:40.018

this vertical liftoff the semiconductors are trading at

 

18:40.018 --> 18:43.055

25 times earnings, expected earnings.

 

18:43.055 --> 18:46.458

This is not a bubble market, it's a boom market.

 

18:46.458 --> 18:51.430

Maybe someday it will become a bubble market but not today.

 

18:51.430 --> 18:55.434

Again, the SpaceX IPO that, obviously, is what

 

18:55.434 --> 18:58.170

everyone's talking about.

 

18:58.170 --> 19:02.341

We'll just have to see how that gets processed and whether it will

 

19:02.341 --> 19:06.345

end up being a buy the rumor, sell the news event or

 

19:06.345 --> 19:09.915

it will only validate the boom that we're in.

 

19:09.915 --> 19:11.750

It's so fascinating this week.

 

19:11.750 --> 19:15.854

I feel like you're taking us through sort of the cusp moment that we'll look

 

19:15.854 --> 19:19.424

back ... there were lots of history being written, it feels like, this week in

 

19:19.424 --> 19:21.760

particular. Tell us about gold.

 

19:21.760 --> 19:26.031

You mentioned in your notes that it's moving away from the global

 

19:26.031 --> 19:30.235

liquidity story which is interesting because it's often used as

 

19:30.235 --> 19:34.239

that hold of value as liquidity takes off

 

19:34.239 --> 19:37.276

and money supply has its own narrative and story.

 

19:37.276 --> 19:40.312

Tell us what you're seeing there.

 

19:40.312 --> 19:43.649

That was pretty telling on Friday.

 

19:43.649 --> 19:48.554

Let's go to slide 15 which is my higher frequency

 

19:48.554 --> 19:51.290

periodic table.

 

19:51.290 --> 19:56.228

You will notice who's on the top. It's EM, S&P, Mag-7, global

 

19:56.228 --> 20:00.465

equities, ex US equities, that's obviously

 

20:00.465 --> 20:02.167

been driving the bus.

 

20:02.167 --> 20:06.371

You look at the bottom, it's long Treasuries, it's Chinese stocks, it's Bitcoin

 

20:06.371 --> 20:10.375

and it's gold. Especially Friday was a pretty damning

 

20:10.375 --> 20:14.379

day for Bitcoin.

 

20:14.379 --> 20:15.113

Bitcoin and gold.

 

20:15.113 --> 20:19.284

Yeah, yeah. They've tended to take turns. You can see to the left of the last

 

20:19.284 --> 20:23.422

column on the right that it's gold on top, Bitcoin on bottom or

 

20:23.422 --> 20:27.392

some variation of that. They're both being lumped together and I think

 

20:27.426 --> 20:30.095

they're right now being seen as sources of liquidity.

 

20:30.095 --> 20:34.099

Maybe the SpaceX and the AI

 

20:34.099 --> 20:38.103

trade in general have just sucked all the air out of the room and it's like,

 

20:38.103 --> 20:42.074

well, you know, Bitcoin and gold are yesterday's news.

 

20:42.074 --> 20:46.178

If we look at slide 16, this

 

20:46.178 --> 20:50.382

is the little scrawling chart that I show of how my

 

20:50.382 --> 20:52.217

diversifiers are moving.

 

20:52.217 --> 20:56.054

It's the correlation against stocks from left to right and the correlation

 

20:56.054 --> 20:59.024

against bonds from bottom to top.

 

20:59.024 --> 21:03.195

In the yellow oval are what I consider to be the true diversifiers,

 

21:03.195 --> 21:07.199

commodities, CTA managed futures,

 

21:07.199 --> 21:11.436

the US dollar, T-bills, market neutral, they're all either

 

21:11.436 --> 21:16.675

uncorrelated to both stocks and bonds or they're even negatively correlated.

 

21:16.675 --> 21:20.979

Then look at gold and Bitcoin and they're kind of more in the upper right.

 

21:20.979 --> 21:25.417

They've become a little bit more correlated which tells me that

 

21:25.417 --> 21:30.389

as stocks and bonds have become correlated and bonds get sold for

 

21:30.389 --> 21:34.526

various reasons, and there's a need for cash in the Middle

 

21:34.526 --> 21:38.630

East because oil is not moving, that maybe Treasuries and gold

 

21:38.630 --> 21:42.467

have become sources of liquidity for those countries.

 

21:42.467 --> 21:45.971

That takes kind of the oomph out of the rally and then people move on and they

 

21:45.971 --> 21:47.973

go jump on the next train.

 

21:47.973 --> 21:52.778

The result is on slide 17 that gold

 

21:52.778 --> 21:57.049

is coming down further. It's not quite at the lows that we saw

 

21:57.049 --> 22:00.952

earlier this year but it's still kind of ...

 

22:00.952 --> 22:04.956

I think the message here, the way it's deviating from the global

 

22:04.956 --> 22:08.994

money supply is that it's being used as a source

 

22:08.994 --> 22:13.198

of liquidity for those countries or investors

 

22:13.198 --> 22:16.101

that need to raise cash.

 

22:16.101 --> 22:20.238

Then we go to Bitcoin, if we go to slide 19,

 

22:20.238 --> 22:24.343

I was very excited about

 

22:24.343 --> 22:28.714

Bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and

 

22:28.714 --> 22:32.651

I guess I was just too complacent because all of a sudden it actually went

 

22:32.651 --> 22:35.854

down last Friday and tested the lows.

 

22:35.854 --> 22:40.225

It actually overtook the lows slightly, very, very short-lived

 

22:40.225 --> 22:42.494

but it went to 59,000.

 

22:42.494 --> 22:46.465

The good news for us technicians is that that

 

22:46.465 --> 22:51.103

means that we now have a bullish divergence in the bottom of the chart there.

 

22:51.103 --> 22:55.941

That actually is a very nice thing to hang your hat

 

22:55.941 --> 23:00.045

on. As disappointed as I am that it didn't hold the

 

23:00.045 --> 23:04.249

rallies earlier I'm happy to get a second look at

 

23:04.249 --> 23:08.887

levels that I think make a lot of sense from an accumulation point of view.

 

23:08.887 --> 23:13.058

That's fascinating. Is there something to come back to on the Fed

 

23:13.058 --> 23:16.061

model? I mean, we're sort of going back to the inflation story here but they're

 

23:16.061 --> 23:20.732

all a little bit linked.

 

23:20.732 --> 23:23.869

This is really when they're all correlated, as you were mentioning before, and

 

23:23.869 --> 23:27.806

they go down together, this brings us

 

23:27.806 --> 23:29.608

to the discussion of allocation.

 

23:29.608 --> 23:32.744

It's still what you're saying. Do you want to just round out that last chart

 

23:32.744 --> 23:35.213

with the allocation story?

 

23:35.213 --> 23:38.016

Let's go to slide 8.

 

23:38.016 --> 23:42.120

The Fed model is an indicator that became very

 

23:42.120 --> 23:44.856

popular in the 1980s.

 

23:44.856 --> 23:48.894

The top panel shows the P/E on bonds, so the inverse of the yield,

 

23:48.894 --> 23:50.862

versus the P/E on stocks.

 

23:50.862 --> 23:55.834

You can see where the shading is red, that's

 

23:55.834 --> 24:00.439

the period where stocks and bonds are positively correlated.

 

24:00.439 --> 24:04.509

Blue is negatively correlated and that blue zone, not coincidentally,

 

24:04.509 --> 24:08.780

is the period of kind of deflationary concerns, financial

 

24:08.780 --> 24:13.618

repression, QE, zero interest rate policy, et cetera.

 

24:13.618 --> 24:17.622

We're back in the red  which is what happens when the risk-free yield goes

 

24:17.622 --> 24:21.560

up and becomes competitive with the risky yield,

 

24:21.560 --> 24:24.362

the yield on equities, as it is now.

 

24:24.362 --> 24:27.799

In the bottom it's just the difference between those two P/Es.

 

24:27.799 --> 24:31.870

You can see 1987, the crash of '87,

 

24:31.870 --> 24:35.974

was very much the result of the Fed model because the stock

 

24:35.974 --> 24:40.045

market completely ignored a rise in bond yields which

 

24:40.045 --> 24:44.082

actually went to 10% back then, seems so hard to believe

 

24:44.082 --> 24:48.119

now. Finally, that left tail came

 

24:48.119 --> 24:51.089

out and bit the stock market.

 

24:51.089 --> 24:55.126

We saw an even bigger version of that in the late '90s during the dot-com

 

24:55.126 --> 24:56.261

bubble.

 

24:56.261 --> 24:58.997

We're not near those levels now.

 

24:58.997 --> 25:03.468

We're much more modest but that doesn't mean that it's not going to

 

25:03.468 --> 25:07.973

have an effect. When stocks or bonds are positively correlated and

 

25:08.006 --> 25:12.744

rising bond yields, if that is what we end up getting, it's

 

25:12.744 --> 25:16.915

not gonna destroy the stock market rally or even end it but

 

25:16.915 --> 25:21.052

it's gonna put downward pressure on valuation and then earnings have to do

 

25:21.052 --> 25:23.855

all the heavy lifting, which they are doing right now.

 

25:23.855 --> 25:26.324

It becomes more of a two-way street.

 

25:26.324 --> 25:30.295

From a diversification perspective, that's where I

 

25:30.295 --> 25:34.332

got my 60/20/20 from, I want some bonds but I

 

25:34.332 --> 25:36.301

don't want a lot of bonds.

 

25:36.301 --> 25:40.338

That's where these other diversifiers come in.

 

25:40.338 --> 25:45.010

Should we end off with what this week is going to represent in terms of these

 

25:45.010 --> 25:47.979

.. you want to call them mega unicorns but that doesn't make sense because

 

25:47.979 --> 25:52.450

that's worth peanuts in comparison to what these things are worth.

 

25:52.450 --> 25:54.185

Just tell us a little bit about ...

 

25:54.185 --> 25:57.556

we've talked about money perhaps shifting around to make sure to position to

 

25:57.556 --> 26:01.560

get in, in the history of

 

26:01.560 --> 26:07.632

what you've watched in the markets where does this fit?

 

26:07.632 --> 26:10.168

We're going to get these giga IPOs.

 

26:10.168 --> 26:14.639

I think they're being well managed in terms of

 

26:14.639 --> 26:18.643

... these three companies, OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX together

 

26:18.643 --> 26:22.113

could be worth $4 to $5 trillion.

 

26:22.113 --> 26:26.151

At first glance it's like, oh my God, $4 trillion is going to come

 

26:26.151 --> 26:29.955

into the market. That, of course, is not what's happening.

 

26:29.955 --> 26:34.492

A fraction of that will actually be the float coming

 

26:34.492 --> 26:36.227

into the markets.

 

26:36.227 --> 26:40.732

It might be 300 to 400 billion, which will still be

 

26:40.732 --> 26:44.703

a lot. It will be historically among the highest

 

26:44.703 --> 26:49.174

ever with the two major periods

 

26:49.174 --> 26:53.144

of IPOs being 2021, just a few years ago when we

 

26:53.144 --> 26:58.583

had the meme stock frenzy, and 2000, 1999.

 

26:58.583 --> 27:02.621

It will compete with those periods but

 

27:02.621 --> 27:06.658

I think they're being managed well enough that the float will be

 

27:06.658 --> 27:10.729

relatively small. I believe there's not a fast track into

 

27:10.729 --> 27:14.733

the S&P so you may not get a lot of the

 

27:14.733 --> 27:18.737

arbitrage of, okay, the stock is going to go in therefore we're going to bid it

 

27:18.737 --> 27:20.238

up. We'll see.

 

27:20.238 --> 27:24.476

It'll probably create some volatility around that but hopefully it's

 

27:24.476 --> 27:28.747

managed well. SpaceX is allowing

 

27:28.747 --> 27:33.284

I think up to 30% of the IPO to go to retail investors

 

27:33.284 --> 27:37.489

so it'll be a good barometer of the actual enthusiasm and

 

27:37.489 --> 27:39.724

what people are willing to pay for it.

 

27:39.724 --> 27:42.994

Certainly, I have a lot of friends who are asking me should I get into the

 

27:42.994 --> 27:47.332

SpaceX IPO? It's like, okay, you know, that's reminiscent

 

27:47.332 --> 27:51.670

of some other periods but we'll see.

 

27:51.670 --> 27:53.672

It's certainly something new.

 

27:53.672 --> 27:57.776

We've never really done space to this degree before.

 

27:57.776 --> 28:01.746

If you hear Elon Musk talk about all the things

 

28:01.746 --> 28:05.316

that we're going to do in space it's a whole new frontier.

 

28:05.316 --> 28:08.353

Maybe it's all hype but maybe it's not.

 

28:08.353 --> 28:12.357

It will be really interesting to watch.

 

28:12.357 --> 28:16.027

It's always exciting when big events bring other investors into the market who

 

28:16.027 --> 28:19.464

just suddenly are hearing about something and it perks interest in investing

 

28:19.464 --> 28:21.900

more broadly anyway.

 

28:21.900 --> 28:25.970

In all your travels coming up will you have time to carve out to

 

28:25.970 --> 28:30.108

watch some football games, the Dutch team,

 

28:30.108 --> 28:31.109

the Netherlands?

 

28:31.910 --> 28:35.980

I hope so. I'll be 13 hours later than all

 

28:35.980 --> 28:40.018

of you folks. For the next few weeks unfortunately I will not be

 

28:40.018 --> 28:43.988

on the show because it would be in the middle of the night for me.

 

28:43.988 --> 28:48.426

I'm gonna take lots of pictures and eat lots of good food and

 

28:48.426 --> 28:52.530

try to pace myself because three weeks is gonna be a long time to be on

 

28:52.530 --> 28:56.534

road. So far I've checked ... all the big city hotels have

 

28:56.534 --> 29:00.472

lap pools so I'm going to try to get my swim in every night before bed so

 

29:00.472 --> 29:01.139

I can relax.

 

29:01.139 --> 29:04.976

And put it into the app, as we were talking about earlier.

 

29:04.976 --> 29:05.944

Exactly.

 

29:06.644 --> 29:10.115

Jurrien Timmer, safe travels, enjoy, and thank you for joining us here today.

 

29:10.115 --> 29:12.751

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29:12.751 --> 29:17.055

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