Rotation, risk and returns: Q4 ETF trends
What’s really driving ETF performance as we head into the final months of 2026?
With market momentum accelerating, Fidelity ETF Strategist Mark Verrilli takes a closer look at where investor capital is flowing and identifies sectors where he sees growth potential. He also gives his take on how higher interest rates, a risk-on environment and market concentration are influencing returns. Discover the key signals and trends that could impact your positions and gains into year-end.
Transcript
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<b>Subtitles are AI Generated</b>
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Hello and welcome to The Upside, I'm Nicole Dungy.
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Canada's ETF market is experiencing historic growth as investors seek
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investment options that offer greater transparency and diversification.
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Mutual funds may still dominate the market.
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However, more investors are moving beyond simply using ETFs
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as low-cost index trackers and instead are deploying them for portfolio
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construction and tactical asset allocation.
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In doing so, how should investors consider asset allocation,
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momentum, and active management when shaping their ETF strategies?
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And what risks and market themes should they consider?
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To talk about what does well in this environment, we have ETF strategist, Mark
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Borelli. Mark, great to have you here today.
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Thanks, Nicole. Of course.
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Why don't we start off with your role?
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So as an ETF strategist for Fidelity Canada, can you walk us through your
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day to day, how you interact with the team and our internal partners?
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Yeah, so I'd say that our role is really at the intersection of a lot of
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client-facing and product teams here at Fidelity.
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So we work closely with our portfolio management teams that design and trade
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on our ETFs. We work closely with capital markets teams to see
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what's going on in the landscape of the ETF industry, closely monitoring flows
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because that's often a leading indicator of investor preferences.
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And then we're trying to take some of the key takeaways from those two teams
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and present them to our sales teams for strategy purposes and
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also talking to our advisor clients about what products we think
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are going to be most relevant over the next couple of months, couple of years,
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and just providing portfolio construction ideas for their portfolios.
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So really we're sitting in the middle of a lot of different teams here at
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Fidelity. We get pulled in a lot directions, whether it's working with advisor
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sales or working with our institutional teams.
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But the idea behind this role is to really...
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Help everyone at Fidelity understand what's going on with ETFs and where we
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think things are going next.
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Okay, so you touched on flows there.
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Why don't we dig into that? International was obviously a big theme last year.
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Can you kind of give us an overview of what flows look like year to date and
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where we're seeing some trends? Sure thing.
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So ETF flows continue to be enormous on a net basis.
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We've seen over $90 billion so
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far this year into equity flows.
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Half of that has been international and global.
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So that train continues to run where a lot of investor preferences seem
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to be pointing away from the US.
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In my mind, any investor who's owned the US market has been
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rewarded greatly over the past 10 years.
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I think the flows for the last year and a half will tell us that investors are
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starting to broaden their horizons when it comes to geographic diversification
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of their academics.
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A couple of other areas that I think are really important to talk about with
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ETF flows are asset allocation has been a rapidly growing category.
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Asset allocation meaning many asset classes in different products into
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one packaged simple solution.
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So, a lot of investors have been looking for simplicity and diversification
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with asset allocation really growing.
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And then finally, another area of extreme growth with ETFs has been
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inverse products and alternatives.
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You know, we're seeing another bad year fixed income performance.
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This is going to be our third bad year in the last five years now.
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So, I think a lot advisors and investors are looking for
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alternative solutions to help diversify and broaden their portfolio.
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Because that safety net that fixed income has traditionally provided has been
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absent the past few years, particularly in 2022.
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So alternatives and inverse products and outcome oriented solutions are
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certainly on the rise as well.
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Okay, I want to definitely touch on the multi-asset strategies
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shortly, but before we do, we've seen big milestones in the Canadian
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asset management space, but specifically relating to ETFs.
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For example, ETFs have gone from 13% of the asset management
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industry in 2021 to almost doubling to about 25%
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as of July 2026.
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Said another way roughly $1.04 sits in an ETF
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currently. And looking at the charts, that growth isn't slowing, it's
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accelerating. Can you touch on why we're seeing this rise in popularity with
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ETFs and kind of what's driving these flows?
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We'll get into the growth engine of ETFs, but first I wanted to just talk a
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little bit about the lines becoming increasingly blurred between ETF
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and mutual fund. I think there's a lot of gaps in investor education
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when it comes to the two vehicles.
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People still automatically associate ETF with passive and mutual
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funds with active, and that's not necessarily the case.
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You can get a wide range of management styles in both.
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So to me, the conversation should not necessarily be.
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ETF versus fund, but it's certainly one that comes up a lot in my day to day
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role and within the industry.
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You can have an actively managed ETF that is more expensive than a
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passively managed mutual fund.
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So there is a little bit of a difference between management style and vehicle.
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That being said, mutual funds are still attracting a lot of flows on a gross
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basis, but not on a net basis.
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They're seeing a lot redemptions as well.
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They've had four more decades of opportunity to gather
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at UM. Which means a lot of the people that own those units are
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also in an older demographic.
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And naturally they're going to have a higher redemption rate, right?
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They're starting to spend some of their money in retirement.
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So it's a little bit different. But with ETFs, you know, going back to what
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your question asked, like what's really driving the growth, I like to call it
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the three P's, perception, price, performance, the three Ps.
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Perception being what we talked about where a lot investors automatically
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associate ETF with low cost, transparency.
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And so on. I think that has more to do with management style than the vehicle,
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but perception is playing a huge role. There's so much advertising around ETFs
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now. If you're watching, you know, football game, a hockey game, a basketball
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game, like you're bound to get some commercials on ETFs.
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Robo advisors are obviously becoming a lot more popular.
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DIY investing is becoming a little more popular and these platforms were built
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on ETF's, right?
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Like the Wealthsimples of the world, the Quest trades of the word.
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You know, your TD direct, like a lot of these platforms are really built around
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ETFs. So that's certainly contributing to the perception around
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needing to use this vehicle.
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And their TPs, price and performance.
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Well, you can have a wide range of management styles and ETFs, you know a lot
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of the assets still do sit in passive products.
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Factor is certainly a rapidly growing category and that's what we do here at
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Fidelity with a lot our ETFs and those two categories tend to be less expensive
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than your traditional actively managed portfolios.
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With more pressure coming around reducing costs in advisors' portfolios.
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Those management styles through an ETF vehicle are certainly becoming more
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popular. And then finally, performance.
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You know, I kind of alluded to it earlier, you've been rewarded for just owning
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the market, essentially in the U.S.
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Since the great financial crisis.
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We're starting to see more broadening within markets, you know,
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more broadending with leadership in the US, more broad ending with different
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regions contributing excessively to returns over the past couple of
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years. So with that, performance is really changing amongst
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products, product providers, and management styles.
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So I think we're starting to see a lot more newer categories of ETFs become
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popular because performance has been really strong in areas like factor,
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or even areas like active and alternative.
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So putting it all together, you know, industry perception, lower
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cost typically, and strong performance across, you now,
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an innovative suite of products, all contributing to increased flows and
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ETFs.
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To build off that conversation, why don't we kind of dive into the overall
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differences between passive and factory TFs that we do at Fidelity Canada?
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Sure.
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So I'll start off by saying every ETF follows
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some sort of rule in order to figure out how much
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weight each stock is going to be within the underlying index.
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For most ETFs that are passively managed, that rule is just
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market cap. The bigger the stock in the investment universe, the
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bigger the weight will be in your portfolio.
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Factor ETFs, I think, just ask the question, is this the most efficient
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way to build portfolio.
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Organising by something other than market cap can not lead to better client
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outcomes. With factor investing, we think it can.
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So factors will look at characteristics like valuation or quality
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of your balance sheet or your momentum in recent performance
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or perhaps your volatility profile.
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And we think that creating an index or an ETF that organises
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by these characteristics can lead to stronger risk adjusted returns.
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So using value as a really simple example, a value ETF would say, you know
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what, Let's look at. Valuations of companies and companies that appear to be
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cheaper will be given more weight in the portfolio.
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And in the long run, we think that could lead to better performance.
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So while both follow rules, I would argue that there's
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a thesis behind investing with factors for every stock chosen
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in a portfolio, whereas a passive strategy is just give
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me the market and the market is by biggest company, his biggest weight.
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Again, that's been a great strategy for.
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You know, most of the last 10 years, but with markets broadening and
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leadership changing over the past six months, I think that we might start
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to see some shifts towards other types of management styles.
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Right.
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Let's double click onto the value piece.
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So fidelity value factor, can we compare that to other
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competitor value factors and kind of where the differences lie?
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Sure, so there's a lot of companies out there that do factor investing.
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Fidelity is not the only one. In fact, the research was really pioneered in the
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70s by two guys, Eugene Tham and Kenneth French, the Tham, a French factor
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model, really built on having betas to
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different characteristics like value.
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Their broad definition would use price to tangible book as a measure
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of value. Tangible book meaning, you know, what are my hard assets worth in my
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business? The challenge with using tangible book value
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is you would never invest in a sector like tech, because tech companies don't
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necessarily have a lot of tangible assets.
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They have a lot of intangible assets within their balance sheet.
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This is a great year to use an example, especially in Canada.
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Software really got hurt in Canada at the beginning of the year because
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the market started to price these companies down, thinking that AI
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would eventually just take over software.
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There wouldn't be a need for it anymore.
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These stocks get crushed.
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Valuations come down substantially.
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If you're looking at only tangible book value, you're not going to invest in
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these companies. But with us at Fidelity, we take a more sophisticated
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approach to the characteristics we use to measure value.
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We look at all three financial statements, we look at measures from the past,
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the present, and the future.
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So when an opportunity arises like this in tech, we can take advantage
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of that within our Canadian value ETF as an example.
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So I'd like to say... We augment the academic research
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done by family and French with fundamental research done here at Fidelity.
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Can we lean into what our portfolio managers have done really well for 40 or
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50 years? Can we try and quantify that approach in order to improve
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on, you know, the traditional family and french factor model?
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Okay.
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And I guess just one last piece on that, what that leads to
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in our process there with factors is it leads to no underlying biases.
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Is that correct?
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Yeah, that's a good point to bring up.
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When you're buying a factor product at Fidelity, we're trying to give you that
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peer factor exposure.
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So this year, values become a bigger conversation because of
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increasing market concentration in the US, right, AI has dominated returns,
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big tech has dominated the returns, and those stocks are now a huge part of the
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index. Some people look at that as a potential area of risk.
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So how do we get away from that area of market concentration?
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Wall. Something like an equal weight index has come up a lot in my
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conversations with advisors.
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The challenge with using something like equal weight, where you're giving equal
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weight to every stock in the S&P 500, is you're going to bring down
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your quality, meaning you're gonna have more companies with worse balance
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sheets. You're gonna be bringing down your market cap.
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Your size is going to become significantly smaller because the index is so
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skewed towards large megacap companies and you're going to
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be decreasing your momentum.
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So you're taking a bet against what's worked well recently.
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With our factor approach, we're trying to give you pure exposure, meaning we're
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only trying to reduce valuation risk with the value ETF.
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We're not trying to bet against size or bet against momentum or bet again
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quality. So we take steps behind the scenes when we're designing these products
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to make sure that those things stay neutral or just betting on valuations.
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I think that's potentially a more prudent approach to try and be more targeted
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with your outcomes. Rather than just buying a broad-based product
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for the sake of it.
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Can you give us a snapshot of the
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market landscape today, I guess, what are the key themes and trends that are
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shaping the environment right now, and then we can kind of dive into a few
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different overlying product ideas that come from that.
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Sure. We talked about the US already.
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AI is certainly dominating the theme here in the US
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market. In Canada and international markets, it's a little bit different.
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What I'll say off the top is all three regions have experienced pretty
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substantial returns so far this year.
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Double digit returns in the 10% to 14% neighbourhood.
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I think most investors would be pretty happy with that if they could get that
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every year, but they've done so in very different ways.
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In Canada, we're really benefiting from higher commodity prices.
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The price of gold rose substantially last year.
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We're seeing the price of oil reach year-long highs because
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of the war in Iran.
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And although that could be bad for inflation, it's good for Canadian
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oil companies, right? So we're seeing pretty strong growth.
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Performance out of the commodity producers.
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We've also seen a large recovery from banks in Canada.
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I think the narrative going into the year in Canada was that we could be on the
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doorstep of a possible recession.
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I think that narrative has changed substantially over the last seven months,
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and that's really been reflected in improving performance of banks here in
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Canada in international markets.
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Again, it's a little bit of a different story.
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It's not necessarily commodities, it's not necessarily AI.
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It's more or less recovering.
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Of old economy sectors in Europe and reform in
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Japan. So with all of the conversations around
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tariffs in the U.S.
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Potentially threatening to leave NATO, we saw countries in Europe start to
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invest a lot more in defence and infrastructure and how it really helped boost
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performance in those sectors.
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And in Japan, we've seen a lot of reforms around corporate governance,
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we see a lot more share buybacks, we have seen increasing dividends.
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So that has really helped boost performance in that.
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Region, which is a huge part of the EFI universe.
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So strong performance in Canada, strong performance the US, strong performance
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in EFI or international markets, but all doing so in very different ways.
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Okay.
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Interesting. So I guess, touching on the US story,
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obviously US markets have been very strong this year.
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For investors that might want to take some risk off the table in terms of
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concentration risk within the AI sector and just to make seven,
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can we touch on the value factor and specifically how that might be able
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to diversify a client's portfolio?
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Sure. So we already talked a bit about value and how the idea is to reduce
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valuation risk.
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Valuation risk meaning the valuations of the hyperscalers
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has gotten substantially higher over the past year and a half or two years
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as we've seen really strong performance from anything attached to that theme
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of AI. So when I speak with a lot of advisors in my role
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in day-to-day, they're increasingly concerned that the performance
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of their portfolios is becoming really dependent on just a handful of stocks.
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So when they say they want to reduce valuation risk or reduce concentration
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risk, it really means can I own things that are different from
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the same five or 10 stocks?
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And that's the whole idea with something like our US value ETF
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is to try and provide a portfolio that looks a lot different from your
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typical US equity portfolio.
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It's picking stocks based on valuation characteristics, meaning do we think
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the fundamentals are trading cheaper than their intrinsic value, or do we
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really think the stock is potentially going?
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This allows you to invest in sectors that look a lot different from a typical
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US equity portfolio, which is heavy in AI and heavy in tech, and instead to
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be heavy in other areas like real estate, utilities, materials.
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This provides a great layer of diversification.
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I think that word is thrown around a lot in our industry.
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I think diversification is a lot different now than it was even just
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five years ago.
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Concentration in tech is rising in a lot of markets, not just the US, but we're
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seeing it internationally.
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Taiwan and Korea are great examples where three stocks have been responsible
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for three quarters of the emerging market returns in the last year.
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Diversifying regionally does not necessarily mean you're diversifying your
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portfolio because he still might have a lot of bets on AI.
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So I think that factor diversification is becoming an increasingly more
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important topic. Our US value factor is one way to help
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diversify the typical portfolio that's been reliant on just a
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handful of stocks. And we think that's a really exciting opportunity over
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the next six to 12 months.
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Whether or not it leads market performance is a totally different question.
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None of us really have a crystal ball. But we think the idea of diversifying
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through different factors is really important.
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In order to create, you know, well-constructed portfolios.
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Right. Okay.
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Before we dive into multi-asset ETFs, touching on that diversification
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piece, why don't we – you mentioned oil prices impacting inflation.
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Can you just kind of give us an overview of what's going on
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with rates on both sides of the border, specifically in North America?
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Yeah, so we're taping this episode in mid-September.
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So we've had a central bank decision in Canada.
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We're waiting on the US central bank decision, which I think is kind
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of the more exciting topic to talk about today.
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Only a couple of weeks ago, it was kind of a coin flip if there
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would be a hike in the US in September.
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When I looked this morning, it was about 95% probability.
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So, interest rates are probably going up in the US.
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By the time this episode comes out, they'll probably have already gone up in
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US, which impacts the short end of the curve, meaning
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things like what you're borrowing from the bank on a
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short-term basis, credit card rates, that sort of thing.
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Those interest rates probably are going to go up and lockstep.
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On the long end of curve, we've already seen a lot of increases in interest
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rates in the U.S. Market in particular.
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You know, the 30-year... Curve is at multi-decade highs in the
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U.S. This is increasingly becoming a concern for the U S administration
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because they have to roll over a lot of debt over the next couple of years
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and they don't want to have to rollover that debt at a higher rate.
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I think frivolous spending has been a big factor contributing to
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higher interest rates.
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The war in Iran possibly leading to more inflation risk is certainly
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contributing to a higher interest rates, that's leaking into.
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Other areas around the world as well.
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But I think the U.S. Market in particular has seen some pretty negative
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impacts on rising rates compared to other major developed
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economies. So that's something that we're keeping an eye on.
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It's something our quantitative team talks a lot about.
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And I think it's something can help contribute to wanting to own something
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like value in this environment because when interest rates are
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going up, when inflation and sticky.
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You know, valuations can come under pressure, right?
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You know, think about it from this lens. If you're a company and you're
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borrowing money to build a new data centre and that borrowed money
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is becoming more expensive, well, the market is going to
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say, you know what? Maybe we shouldn't be giving them such a generous valuation
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going forward. So valuations come under a pressure that can create
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a really good environment if you're less exposed to valuation risk.
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And the last thing that we're really watching on it more.
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Macro level spending, CapEx has obviously gone up
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substantially with this AI data centre build out and
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infrastructure build out.
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Questioning the sustainability of these practises I think is on a lot of
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investors' minds.
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We're starting to see Meg 7 companies issue bonds, which is pretty rare for
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them. They're starting burn through these massive piles of
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cash that they've amassed over the past decade of selling a lot of their
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product. It's definitely not a problem right now.
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They have a lot of cash. They've been extremely successful companies.
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But if we don't see the return from some of these projects in
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AI in the near term, then perhaps we'll have to rethink how much money they're
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spending. So that's certainly something that we're watching closely.
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Okay.
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If we take a look at the top 10 selling ETFs, three of those
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are multi-asset strategies, including our own Fidelity All-in-One's.
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Can you give us an overview, number one, of the sweep, but then also what's
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driving investors to these one-ticket solutions?
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And to even expand on that, I believe it's five of the top 12 selling ETFs
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are asset allocation.
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So if you look at the top selling products in Canada, like asset allocation is
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definitely there. Fidelity All-in-ones would be three of those five products.
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So with our All-In-One suite, the idea is you're really buying diversification,
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and I mean that in a few ways.
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Regional diversification. Exposure to Canada, U.S., and international markets.
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Factor diversification... Which again, I think is increasingly more important
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as markets become more concentrated.
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So buying momentum, low volatility, value, and high quality
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across those regions and asset allocation, diversification,
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as is implied by the name of the category, meaning you're buying equities,
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you're buy bonds, you're a little bit of alternative exposure as well.
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So the idea here is simplicity and diversification a
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one ticket solution. Investors can own just this product.
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As they're, you know, mainstaying their portfolio and be well diversified.
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So no matter what leads the markets over the next 12 months, hopefully they
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have something that's participating and hopefully they'll have something that's
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helping provide some defence if things don't go as well.
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So I think the all-in-ones are a really great solution for people who are
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starting out investing or if you're thinking about, you now, a registered plan
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or a smaller account where it might not make sense to have a lot of complexity
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within your portfolio.
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I think that a lot of investors in Canada would really agree with that notion
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of simplicity and diversification becoming increasingly important.
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We talked about earlier some of the structural changes in the industry, DIY
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becoming a lot more accessible,
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robo-advisory companies becoming a little more accessible.
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Even within the advisor industry, there's been a big shift towards
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ETS because of some the structural changes that make.
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ETFs more accessible for certain dealers.
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A lot of advisors are moving to discretionary platforms.
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A lot advisors are moving to model portfolios and with their smaller accounts
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they wanna do something that's a little bit more simple.
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So all of these things point towards asset allocation ETFs continuing to
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become more popular.
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In fact, when we look at the past seven years, there's never been a negative
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month of net inflows for asset allocation, ETFs,
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which cannot be said about any other ETF category.
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So it's very sticky money.
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When investors buy them, they stay in them.
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I think that makes them very attractive for both investors and advisors.
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The end of the day, the name of the game is really stay in the market.
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We can talk a lot about where we think things are going.
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We're probably gonna be wrong on a lot of those things.
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That's just how it goes with investing.
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With asset allocation ETFs, because you're participating in a wide range of
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markets, makes it a little bit easier to stay in game.
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00:24:54,526 --> 00:24:56,027
I think, that's really important for investors.
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00:24:56,027 --> 00:24:58,663
Yep, for sure. I just want to touch on one piece there.
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You mentioned alternatives as a piece of the portfolio.
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Can you kind of give the audience an overview of what that means, specifically
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00:25:05,303 --> 00:25:09,374
it's crypto exposure, but why did that get included in the portfolios
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and what does it do?
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00:25:10,809 --> 00:25:14,546
So alternatives can mean a lot of different things in investing, which I think
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can be a bit of a point of frustration for the average investor.
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It's really important to do your research when you're investing on alternatives
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because there's a lot of different you can do with derivatives,
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with commodities, with margin, whatever it may be that
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really changes the investor experience.
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For us in the all-in-ones alternative exposure, as you mentioned, is crypto
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through a Bitcoin ETF offering.
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The reason why we included crypto is because we just wanted something that
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behaved differently from equities and fixed income.
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If you ever study portfolio management 101, you'll know
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that if you have assets with lower correlation to one another,
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it helps improve your risk adjusted returns in the long run.
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All that to say, if crypto moves a little bit differently than bonds, and it
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moves a bit differently than equities, and it goes up in the longer run.
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Which should help improve risk adjustment returns in our portfolios.
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And the nice thing about something like crypto is you can do it at a pretty low
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cost. So it's a really cheap way to access alternatives in
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the portfolio. Now the second reason for inclusion I would say is because we
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use those factors that have a defined investment thesis, our
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portfolias tend to be a little bit more defensive.
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So if we wanted to bring up our correlation to some of the other major
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asset allocation ETF providers in Canada, we needed a little bit more risk
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in the portfolio. Bitcoin also offers a little bit more risk.
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So it helps keep us in line with how those portfolios behave in
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the long run, but still giving us a differentiated source of returns.
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Okay. So it's not meaningfully driving performance in one way or the other, but
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it's over time increasing, slightly increasing risk adjusted returns.
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Since we launched, it's certainly helped performance.
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I know that this year has been a more challenging year for cryptocurrencies.
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Last month, we saw a bit of a changing narrative there with really strong
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performance.
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It has helped our performance, but it's not the only thing driving performance.
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It's a contributing factor. Right.
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00:27:13,131 --> 00:27:15,033
Awesome. Well, thank you Mark for being here.
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We appreciate your time.
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Thanks for having me on. Of course.
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Thank you for joining us on the upside.
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For more investor content, sign up to our Zoom webcast on fidelity.ca
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You can also sign up for our newsletter on the website so you never miss an
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you can make on your financial journey.
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Thank you joining us and I'm Nicole Dungy.
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Thanks for listening to, or
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Subscribe on your podcast platform
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Fidelity Mutual Funds and ETFs are
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Visit Fidelity.ca slash howtobuy
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While on Fidelity you can also find
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Don't forget to follow Fidelity
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We'll wrap things up today with a
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quick disclaimer.
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00:28:29,340 --> 00:28:30,842
The views and opinions expressed on
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this podcast are those of the
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participants, and do not necessarily
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reflect those of Fidelity
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Investments Canada ULC or its
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affiliates.
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This podcast is for informational
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construed as investment, tax, or
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legal advice.
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It is not an offer to sell or buy or
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an endorsement, recommendation, or
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sponsorship of any entity or
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security cited.
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00:28:50,462 --> 00:28:51,796
Read a fund's prospectus before
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investing. Funds are not guaranteed.
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00:28:54,199 --> 00:28:55,700
Their values change frequently and
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past performance may not be
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repeated. Fees, expenses, and
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commissions are all associated with
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fund investments.
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00:29:01,906 --> 00:29:03,041
Thanks for tuning in.
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We'll see you next time.

