FidelityConnects: UK & Europe Market Trends: What They Mean for Global Investors
Join us live from London as Investment Director Tom Stevenson explores the latest developments across the UK and European markets. Gain insights into key economic drivers, sector trends and potential opportunities that can help you position portfolios for success in today’s interconnected global landscape.
Transcript
00:07.540 --> 00:09.676
Welcome to Fidelity Connects. I'm Pamela Ritchie.
00:09.676 --> 00:13.813
As the world adjusts to what is deemed a new world order surfing through
00:13.813 --> 00:17.450
relevant facts and stats is tougher than usual.
00:17.450 --> 00:21.488
Over the weekend Japan's Prime Minister won a renewed mandate to move
00:21.488 --> 00:25.525
forward with her reforms which are helping shift the global approach
00:25.525 --> 00:27.494
to JGBs.
00:27.494 --> 00:31.097
As well, the bust-up of relations at the top of the UK government are also
00:31.097 --> 00:34.501
leading to questions even of a snap British election.
00:34.501 --> 00:38.571
The steady shifting of global investors' interest beyond US
00:38.571 --> 00:43.109
shores has all the makings of a brand new world of investment opportunities
00:43.109 --> 00:47.714
in regions not considered perhaps in decades, if ever.
00:47.714 --> 00:50.784
Joining us here today to provide the underpinning stories of some of these
00:50.784 --> 00:54.854
shifts and how to put investor money to work is investment director,
00:54.854 --> 00:57.757
Tom Stevenson, joining us live from London.
00:57.757 --> 01:00.427
Warm welcome to you, Tom, how are you?
01:00.427 --> 01:02.395
Hi, Pamela. All good, thank you.
01:02.395 --> 01:04.297
Delighted to have this time to speak with you.
01:04.297 --> 01:08.234
We'll invite people to send questions in over the next little bit.
01:08.234 --> 01:10.603
We'll begin in the UK.
01:10.603 --> 01:14.741
Certainly, we have seen discussions about whether
01:14.741 --> 01:18.678
the government will withstand the scandal that it's going through right now.
01:18.678 --> 01:25.752
I guess we just turn to you to say what's next or what's at stake?
01:25.752 --> 01:30.990
Things are moving very quickly here in the UK, as you can imagine.
01:30.990 --> 01:36.596
The scandal relates to the former business secretary,
01:36.596 --> 01:40.567
former UK ambassador to the US,
01:40.567 --> 01:45.305
Peter Mandelson, and his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein
01:45.305 --> 01:50.110
and how that is sort of feeding through into assessments
01:50.110 --> 01:55.081
of the judgement of the Prime Minister.
01:55.081 --> 01:59.419
I say it's moving very quickly, just in the last 48 hours we have had
01:59.419 --> 02:03.957
two senior resignations, resignation of the
02:03.957 --> 02:09.395
head of strategy who essentially fell on his sword,
02:09.395 --> 02:13.533
took responsibility for the appointment of Mandelson
02:13.533 --> 02:16.336
as the ambassador to Washington.
02:16.336 --> 02:20.907
That was yesterday. Today the head of communications for
02:20.907 --> 02:24.844
the prime minister, Sir Keir
02:24.844 --> 02:27.580
Starmer, also left his job.
02:27.580 --> 02:30.884
Actually, there's one more development today which was that the head of the
02:30.884 --> 02:35.021
Labour Party in Scotland came out
02:35.021 --> 02:39.792
and publicly called for the Prime Minister to stand down.
02:39.792 --> 02:44.297
In less than 48 hours that's a pretty rapidly
02:44.297 --> 02:46.766
changing situation.
02:46.766 --> 02:50.770
I think there are real question marks about how long this
02:50.770 --> 02:55.875
government can survive. This
02:55.875 --> 02:59.679
is not how British politics is meant to be.
02:59.679 --> 03:04.017
If we have a change of prime minister we will have had five prime ministers
03:04.017 --> 03:07.520
in as many years.
03:07.520 --> 03:11.758
That's sort of Italian standard government from when I
03:11.758 --> 03:14.360
was younger. This is not what we expect in the UK.
03:14.360 --> 03:18.398
I think that there will be knock-on effects in
03:18.398 --> 03:22.835
the financial markets. We haven't really seen them thus far.
03:22.835 --> 03:26.940
Things are fairly stable. In fact, the UK stock market is
03:26.940 --> 03:30.910
riding high at close to a peak.
03:30.910 --> 03:35.148
There hasn't really been a big response in the bond market or the currency
03:35.148 --> 03:39.152
market yet but this is changing so quickly that I
03:39.152 --> 03:41.788
think we just don't know where it's going next.
03:41.788 --> 03:46.092
It's wonderful just to have your perspective on that and which
03:46.092 --> 03:48.194
directions it's going in currently.
03:48.194 --> 03:52.599
Over the weekend and yesterday we saw the prime minister in Japan win
03:52.599 --> 03:56.736
a brand new mandate. She has absolutely crushed it,
03:56.736 --> 04:00.773
really, in results and will take forward, we think,
04:00.773 --> 04:05.378
just a continued higher interest rate environment which makes JGBs
04:05.378 --> 04:09.983
more attractive basically to global investors.
04:09.983 --> 04:15.288
I think what we saw in Japan was Sanae Takaichi,
04:15.288 --> 04:19.325
the leader of the Liberal Democrats since last October, clearly
04:19.325 --> 04:23.463
she didn't have a mandate from the people,
04:23.463 --> 04:27.400
if you like, because she inherited that job so she called
04:27.400 --> 04:32.005
the snap election to get that mandate for a pretty radical
04:32.005 --> 04:37.610
policy program of fiscal expansion,
04:37.610 --> 04:44.250
lower taxation, investment in corporate
04:44.250 --> 04:48.321
Japan, quite a far reaching program. Not
04:48.321 --> 04:51.357
only did she get the mandate but she got an absolute landslide.
04:51.357 --> 04:55.895
It's the biggest
04:55.895 --> 05:01.200
majority for the LDP in the lower house in Japan since
05:01.200 --> 05:03.469
1955 when the LDP was was founded.
05:03.469 --> 05:07.573
She has absolutely got the mandate to do what
05:07.573 --> 05:11.444
she wants to do with the Japanese economy.
05:11.444 --> 05:14.947
That's going to be very interesting and I think it will have repercussions in
05:14.947 --> 05:17.350
financial markets all around the world.
05:17.350 --> 05:21.354
China, we think, would not be so happy about that, President Xi.
05:21.354 --> 05:25.291
Japan has very strong alliances with
05:25.291 --> 05:29.329
so-called Western countries and is willing to
05:29.329 --> 05:33.066
be very vocal about things like Taiwan and so on.
05:33.066 --> 05:37.136
We did see some moves by the Chinese government to ask banks to
05:37.136 --> 05:39.672
have less exposure to US Treasuries and so on.
05:39.672 --> 05:44.243
I don't know if anything's related to the Japanese election
05:44.243 --> 05:52.285
but how would China be taking this election victory, do you think?
05:52.285 --> 05:56.622
Obviously, I'm not an expert in regional politics but what
05:56.622 --> 06:00.893
it seems to me is that Japan and China
06:00.893 --> 06:04.831
have kind of been competing in quite sort of different
06:04.831 --> 06:08.801
areas of the economy for much of the last 25 years.
06:08.801 --> 06:13.539
I think as China is moving up the value chain,
06:13.539 --> 06:20.346
if you like, in terms of its investments, its innovation, this
06:20.346 --> 06:24.617
is a positive thing for investors in China but
06:24.617 --> 06:28.721
I think it brings it closer to Japan in terms of the area in
06:28.721 --> 06:34.327
which they're competing
06:34.327 --> 06:38.231
on the geostrategic level as well.
06:38.231 --> 06:42.435
The Japanese prime minister has been very clear that she wants to
06:42.435 --> 06:47.273
revisit the constitution, the 1947 Japanese
06:47.273 --> 06:51.744
constitution, which effectively was a
06:51.744 --> 06:55.782
pacifist constitution. It limited the the size
06:55.782 --> 06:58.351
and scope of Japan's military.
06:58.351 --> 07:00.853
She wants to revisit that for obvious reasons.
07:00.853 --> 07:04.991
I think in the economic sphere, in the geostrategic
07:04.991 --> 07:10.630
sphere, Japan and China become much more
07:10.630 --> 07:16.602
competitive, a competition of equals, if you like, and I think
07:16.602 --> 07:19.605
maybe that's the answer to your question. I think it's something which China is
07:19.605 --> 07:21.974
going to be watching really closely.
07:21.974 --> 07:26.078
For so-called rest of world investors, including those in the United States and
07:26.078 --> 07:31.184
Canada, all over the world, the opportunity of looking at
07:31.184 --> 07:34.720
Japanese bonds at this moment is very interesting.
07:34.720 --> 07:38.224
I mean, the local investors went abroad to find yield and Japan was essentially
07:38.224 --> 07:40.393
a carry trade for a long, long time.
07:40.393 --> 07:44.597
It now offers what, do you think?
07:44.597 --> 07:48.634
Well, it feels to me like that carry trade, you know, borrowing
07:48.634 --> 07:53.072
in yen to invest in high yielding currencies,
07:53.072 --> 07:57.610
countries, it feels like that carry trade is finished now
07:57.610 --> 08:02.081
with long maturity Japanese bonds yielding
08:02.081 --> 08:04.984
4% or more now.
08:04.984 --> 08:09.388
That has knock-on implications in other markets such as in
08:09.388 --> 08:13.426
US Treasuries. I think what it will lead to is a
08:13.426 --> 08:17.430
repatriation of much of that money which moved out of Japan in
08:17.430 --> 08:20.900
search of higher returns for many years.
08:20.900 --> 08:25.571
That, I think, has important implications for
08:25.571 --> 08:29.542
US Treasury bond yields because the Japanese were big
08:29.542 --> 08:33.145
buyers of US Treasuries.
08:33.145 --> 08:37.583
That, in turn, has potential implications for stock markets as well because
08:37.583 --> 08:42.955
if US Treasury bonds are
08:42.955 --> 08:47.660
high yielding, that affects the discount rate which is used to value
08:47.660 --> 08:51.697
especially high growth technology shares in the US,
08:51.697 --> 08:55.768
the shares which have driven the US market for many years.
08:55.768 --> 08:59.739
I think there are lots of implications not just for Japanese bonds but also for
08:59.739 --> 09:02.808
US bonds and US stocks as well.
09:02.808 --> 09:06.946
Bonds just become competitive to equity returns, essentially.
09:06.946 --> 09:13.986
It's another player on the field in terms of competition.
09:13.986 --> 09:18.157
You did an amazing report, I think you said to us earlier
09:18.157 --> 09:23.829
about a year ago, about taking a look at 10 funds for 10 years
09:23.829 --> 09:27.767
and kind of outlining how investment trends and exposure
09:27.767 --> 09:31.470
in different parts of the world and asset classes would change over the course
09:31.470 --> 09:34.540
of 10 years. Tell us a bit how you crafted that.
09:34.540 --> 09:36.309
I guess we're, what, a year in?
09:36.309 --> 09:39.545
Just tell us a little bit about that.
09:39.545 --> 09:43.583
Absolutely. About a year ago I kind of
09:43.583 --> 09:48.321
asked myself what was quite a difficult question, which was if I could only buy
09:48.321 --> 09:52.325
10 funds, make 10 investments
09:52.325 --> 09:56.395
... it's like that Warren Buffett thing saying you've got a card, a punch
09:56.395 --> 10:00.499
card, which you're only allowed to use 20 times in your investing
10:00.499 --> 10:03.803
life, it concentrates the mind how you would use it.
10:03.803 --> 10:07.907
I kind have played with that idea and said, look, if I could only buy 10 funds
10:07.907 --> 10:11.077
for the next 10 years what would they be?
10:11.077 --> 10:17.083
I came up with a list of 10 funds. The
10:17.083 --> 10:21.120
funds themselves don't really matter for the purposes of this conversation
10:21.120 --> 10:23.723
but it's the thinking, really.
10:23.723 --> 10:28.027
I had sort of a number of different
10:28.027 --> 10:30.730
themes that I wanted to play.
10:30.730 --> 10:35.134
One of them was that I wanted
10:35.134 --> 10:39.205
to continue growth because, obviously, if you're investing for 10 years
10:39.205 --> 10:41.807
you would hope that there is continuing growth.
10:41.807 --> 10:45.044
I had a couple of sort of growth funds.
10:45.044 --> 10:49.215
I felt that there was a shift away from pure growth
10:49.215 --> 10:53.619
towards more of a value approach so I had a couple value funds
10:53.619 --> 10:54.620
in there.
10:54.620 --> 11:00.259
I wanted to
11:00.259 --> 11:03.729
play the changing world, I called it.
11:03.729 --> 11:08.334
I felt that investing over a 10-year period,
11:08.334 --> 11:12.338
the ongoing growth of emerging markets, I felt, was a continuing
11:12.338 --> 11:16.275
theme. It felt to me like if there was one theme which
11:16.275 --> 11:20.646
was almost certain to continue it was the continuing growth
11:20.646 --> 11:25.184
and importance of technology in the world.
11:25.184 --> 11:29.221
I also wanted to play what I felt was the beginning of a shift
11:29.221 --> 11:33.225
in markets, and we've kind of talked about it a little bit, this rotation
11:33.225 --> 11:38.698
away from US dominated markets towards
11:38.698 --> 11:42.668
a more diversified, a better spread set
11:42.668 --> 11:45.137
of investments around the world.
11:45.137 --> 11:48.974
That's where I invested in some of the cheaper markets around the word like the
11:48.974 --> 11:52.945
UK. A few different themes like that and that's how I came up
11:52.945 --> 11:54.046
with the 10 funds.
11:54.046 --> 11:58.651
It's fascinating and I want to just ask you about inflation and where inflation
11:58.651 --> 12:02.588
directed you in this story because if you think sort of a year ago that
12:02.588 --> 12:06.592
was, or a year and change, that was the beginning of the Fed rate cutting
12:06.592 --> 12:10.930
cycle. Other governments had gone ahead and started cutting earlier,
12:10.930 --> 12:15.301
so-called developed markets had gotten on that train faster and earlier because
12:15.301 --> 12:17.703
they had to in a lot of cases.
12:17.703 --> 12:21.707
What role did inflation play in your sort of 10-year view a
12:21.707 --> 12:25.177
year go?
12:25.177 --> 12:29.315
That was one of the key arguments for my focus on
12:29.315 --> 12:31.150
emerging markets.
12:31.150 --> 12:35.087
It's not the only reason why I would invest in emerging
12:35.087 --> 12:39.158
markets. I think it's quite a complex case that
12:39.158 --> 12:43.462
can be made for emerging markets. Inflation was one of them because
12:43.462 --> 12:48.234
many emerging markets were quite early into
12:48.234 --> 12:52.338
dealing with inflation and they had
12:52.338 --> 12:56.375
raised interest rates quite high, and indeed real
12:56.375 --> 13:00.112
interest rates in many emerging markets were really very high.
13:00.112 --> 13:04.416
Interest rates were much higher than the effective rate of inflation.
13:04.416 --> 13:10.222
That made them important.
13:10.222 --> 13:14.393
The role of both inflation and interest
13:14.393 --> 13:18.197
rates was really very important when you take a 10-rear view because I think
13:18.197 --> 13:22.301
it's part of that rotation out of the US cycle
13:22.301 --> 13:25.538
which was a major driver of my thinking.
13:25.538 --> 13:28.707
It's just fascinating how that ultimately works.
13:28.707 --> 13:33.813
Is there anything that you were underexposed to that did
13:33.813 --> 13:39.585
better or something that you're exposed to that did demonstrably worse?
13:39.585 --> 13:44.056
One of the problems with only coming up with 10
13:44.056 --> 13:48.394
funds, or 10 themes, is that it's quite difficult to
13:48.394 --> 13:52.998
cover everything. I
13:52.998 --> 13:57.336
had gold in there, for example, and that also plays to the
13:57.336 --> 14:01.640
inflation theme that you mentioned, it felt that was something, but
14:01.640 --> 14:04.310
there wasn't room as a consequence of that for everything.
14:04.310 --> 14:08.480
I actually didn't have a Japanese
14:08.480 --> 14:12.885
fund in there, which I slightly regret
14:12.885 --> 14:16.956
not just because the last year has been so good for
14:16.956 --> 14:20.926
Japanese investments but I just feel that actually over
14:20.926 --> 14:25.898
a 10-year cycle, especially given what's happened with
14:25.898 --> 14:30.636
the change of government in Japan and
14:30.636 --> 14:34.874
the strategy which the new PM has set out, it
14:34.874 --> 14:38.544
feels like I would want to have some Japanese exposure.
14:38.544 --> 14:42.548
I actually did a review of my 10 for 10 just
14:42.548 --> 14:45.918
in the last week and I said, if there were two areas which I would actually
14:45.918 --> 14:50.022
have more of this year it would be more Japan and
14:50.022 --> 14:52.157
it would be more Europe.
14:52.157 --> 14:55.995
Those were the areas which I felt I was underplaying.
14:55.995 --> 15:00.366
The discussion of where Europe goes from here, and really since
15:00.366 --> 15:04.436
the invasion of Ukraine continues we've heard of defence budgets
15:04.436 --> 15:07.539
and projections for them ballooning over the course of the last couple of
15:07.539 --> 15:11.477
years, different types of energy being deployed,
15:11.477 --> 15:15.781
long contracts being written and so on, it seems much
15:15.781 --> 15:17.616
more cohesive.
15:17.616 --> 15:21.687
I just want to ask, is there more of a case for a Eurobond, especially
15:21.687 --> 15:26.458
in light of the fact that it might be interesting as investors are shifting
15:26.458 --> 15:31.463
long term money across the globe for different reasons anyway, does
15:31.463 --> 15:35.567
that sort of cohesion, a financial union of that sort,
15:35.567 --> 15:39.738
get any closer, do you think, or is that just still a background conversation?
15:39.738 --> 15:44.143
I think there is certainly a case for more cohesion,
15:44.143 --> 15:48.948
there is a case for a Eurobond.
15:48.948 --> 15:51.984
Whether it's actually going to happen I think is another matter altogether.
15:51.984 --> 15:56.755
Europe remains
15:56.755 --> 16:00.859
frustratingly fragmented in terms of its politics and its
16:00.859 --> 16:05.197
economics.
16:05.197 --> 16:09.268
Your Prime Minister has been talking very eloquently recently
16:09.268 --> 16:13.372
about the need for the middle-sized economies
16:13.372 --> 16:17.409
in the world, middle-sized countries, to work together in a more
16:17.409 --> 16:19.511
cohesive way.
16:19.511 --> 16:23.582
I think over here in Europe we would be absolutely on board with
16:23.582 --> 16:27.519
that. We totally understand what he was talking about when he said
16:27.519 --> 16:29.321
that, and we definitely need it.
16:29.321 --> 16:34.193
We are beginning to see early signs, the
16:34.193 --> 16:38.864
German government, for example, has been very clear about the need to spend
16:38.864 --> 16:43.168
more heavily, to up its government budgets
16:43.168 --> 16:47.172
for things like defence, industrial renewal
16:47.172 --> 16:51.110
in the region. We are beginning to see the start of
16:51.110 --> 16:54.313
that but it's early days yet.
16:54.313 --> 16:59.618
I think that if you're making a case for investing in Europe
16:59.618 --> 17:03.655
that renewed spending and that need for us to pull together and to
17:03.655 --> 17:07.626
act as a unit within Europe is definitely a part of that
17:07.626 --> 17:08.894
investment case.
17:08.894 --> 17:12.097
Hello, investors. We'll be back to the show in just a moment.
17:12.097 --> 17:15.667
I wanted to share that here at Fidelity, we value your opinion.
17:15.667 --> 17:17.970
Please take a few minutes to help us shape the future of Fidelity Connects
17:17.970 --> 17:23.075
podcasts. Complete our listener survey by visiting fidelity.ca/survey,
17:23.075 --> 17:25.044
and you could win one of our branded tumblers.
17:25.044 --> 17:28.113
Periodic draws ending by March 30th, 2026.
17:28.113 --> 17:31.717
And don't forget to listen to Fidelity Connects, the Upside, and French
17:31.717 --> 17:35.754
DialoguesFidelity podcasts available on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever
17:35.754 --> 17:40.526
else you get your podcasts. Now back to today's show.
17:40.526 --> 17:43.896
Oh, here's a great question coming in, actually, to this.
17:43.896 --> 17:47.933
Could you speak a little bit about the possibility of changes in Japanese
17:47.933 --> 17:50.869
policy on carry trade and global liquidity?
17:50.869 --> 17:55.174
You did touch on the carry trade but it's obviously a very interesting topic
17:55.174 --> 17:57.810
right now, and the global liquidity story.
17:57.810 --> 18:00.179
There's actually a lot of money sloshing around about there, it just sort of
18:00.179 --> 18:03.816
depends where it's sloshing around.
18:03.816 --> 18:09.188
I think, absolutely, and I think that for years
18:09.188 --> 18:12.591
the direction of travel of global liquidity has been towards the US.
18:12.591 --> 18:16.995
Obviously, the Treasury market has been the
18:16.995 --> 18:21.033
place where it's been easiest to park that
18:21.033 --> 18:25.170
liquidity. It is the most liquid asset
18:25.170 --> 18:27.406
class in the world.
18:27.406 --> 18:31.477
I think that we're seeing a reversal of that trend now and I think the
18:31.477 --> 18:35.547
rise in Japanese bond yields is just
18:35.547 --> 18:39.551
simply going to accelerate that trend, and not
18:39.551 --> 18:43.522
just Japan. You mentioned China as well, China and Japan
18:43.522 --> 18:47.993
and the EU, we've all been big investors in
18:47.993 --> 18:52.264
... we've all been a part of that one-way traffic into the US and clearly
18:52.264 --> 18:56.535
that is shifting. That money has got to go somewhere and I think that creates
18:56.535 --> 19:00.472
lots of interesting investment opportunities all around the world.
19:00.472 --> 19:04.409
I think Japan is just one of those.
19:04.409 --> 19:11.150
It's fascinating to see how
19:11.150 --> 19:15.087
much the Japanese market has grown, and the Chinese
19:15.087 --> 19:19.091
market as well in terms of growth, in terms of performance in the last year.
19:19.091 --> 19:23.028
That is an early sign of this shift happening.
19:23.028 --> 19:27.299
There's a lot of catching up still to do because in terms of valuations
19:27.299 --> 19:31.270
the gap had got so big that there is plenty
19:31.270 --> 19:33.572
of room for more money to shift the other way.
19:33.572 --> 19:37.509
I don't think we should feel that, oh, the last year,
19:37.509 --> 19:40.946
or even two years, there's been a big shift upwards in those markets.
19:40.946 --> 19:42.681
Yes, but I think there's more to go.
19:42.681 --> 19:46.652
More to go and, of course, the theme that touches literally
19:46.652 --> 19:50.756
every person on earth is that we are at the jumping off
19:50.756 --> 19:55.160
point, if we're not already sort of in mid-air, of the AI transformation
19:55.160 --> 19:59.231
globally. That money is going to shift along with a
19:59.231 --> 20:03.335
very interesting theme for investors to invest in all over the
20:03.335 --> 20:05.337
world because it will affect everyone.
20:05.337 --> 20:09.441
I wonder if you can just sort of speak to putting capital to work in
20:09.441 --> 20:13.478
new places but to what extent does that come into some version of an AI
20:13.478 --> 20:15.547
play as well?
20:15.547 --> 20:19.618
I think AI is crucial to everything that you've just
20:19.618 --> 20:22.487
said.
20:22.487 --> 20:26.758
Look at the Chinese stock market as
20:26.758 --> 20:31.630
the investment opportunity.
20:31.630 --> 20:35.567
A year ago we had the DeepSeek moment when we realized that
20:35.567 --> 20:39.738
actually China has, and continues, to
20:39.738 --> 20:47.346
make enormous leaps in terms of technological innovation.
20:47.346 --> 20:51.817
I don't think that investors had really grasped that until
20:51.817 --> 20:55.954
a year ago. I think that was a major driver of what happened with
20:55.954 --> 20:58.357
stock prices last year.
20:58.357 --> 21:02.427
When I talk to our investors in the
21:02.427 --> 21:06.365
region, in Hong Kong and
21:06.365 --> 21:10.902
China, they talk a lot about the
21:10.902 --> 21:15.140
remarkable power of Chinese
21:15.140 --> 21:18.043
innovation.
21:18.043 --> 21:20.312
I think this is a massive opportunity.
21:20.312 --> 21:24.283
The whole AI focus has been really on the Magnificent
21:24.283 --> 21:27.886
7 and US technology stocks.
21:27.886 --> 21:31.690
Over the last six months they have gone sideways, they've done absolutely
21:31.690 --> 21:32.257
nothing and so....
21:32.257 --> 21:36.061
But they've not interrupted the equity market by doing so which is great for
21:36.061 --> 21:37.663
people.
21:37.663 --> 21:41.433
This is really interesting because that was the fear.
21:41.433 --> 21:46.705
Six months ago, a year ago, everyone thought
21:46.705 --> 21:50.742
if the pin pricks that bubble, that AI bubble,
21:50.742 --> 21:53.879
in the US it's going to drag the indices down with it.
21:53.879 --> 21:57.849
What we've seen is a sort of slow deflation of that Magnificent
21:57.849 --> 22:01.887
7 technology story without affecting the rest of the
22:01.887 --> 22:06.558
market.
22:06.558 --> 22:08.527
Magnificent 7 have done nothing.
22:08.527 --> 22:12.297
S&P 500 as a whole has gone up marginally.
22:12.297 --> 22:16.068
Markets in the rest of the world have gone up really strongly.
22:16.068 --> 22:19.438
I don't think anyone a year ago would have really predicted that.
22:19.438 --> 22:23.508
I think that's been a very benign outcome for three investors.
22:23.508 --> 22:25.677
How on earth did that get managed?
22:25.677 --> 22:29.648
You feel like that's the sort of thing that you need a
22:29.648 --> 22:33.785
Fed or you need someone to manage that but it just did because I
22:33.785 --> 22:36.188
guess...
It's just happened naturally, yeah.
22:36.188 --> 22:41.059
It's incredible. Get the humans out of there, just let it happen.
22:41.059 --> 22:45.063
Let's keep our fingers crossed that it continues because it has been, as I
22:45.063 --> 22:47.999
say, a much more benign outcome than I think we could have hoped for.
22:47.999 --> 22:49.935
Let's talk a little bit more about ...
22:49.935 --> 22:53.372
EM, you've mentioned there but the other side of it is sort of, I think you
22:53.372 --> 22:57.409
mentioned in one of your articles in the Telegraph, the sheer size of
22:57.409 --> 23:02.280
the outstanding debt of developed markets, the Canada's, various
23:02.280 --> 23:06.118
countries that seem to have room to do fiscal spending, which is exactly what
23:06.118 --> 23:10.188
they are planning to do and then some, but that doesn't mean
23:10.188 --> 23:12.224
it won't all catch up with everyone.
23:12.224 --> 23:13.992
We also have a declining population.
23:13.992 --> 23:17.929
I'll just quote Canada, got a number in I think last week, so you
23:17.929 --> 23:21.199
have many countries around the world that are developed, have lots of debt and
23:21.199 --> 23:24.970
declining populations. It's the demographic story.
23:24.970 --> 23:29.207
Again, sort of how that balances out to look probably further afield
23:29.207 --> 23:32.677
for investments.
23:32.677 --> 23:37.482
Actually, I think it plays into the emerging markets story
23:37.482 --> 23:41.620
because you're looking at countries in the world which have
23:41.620 --> 23:45.624
more attractive demographics than many of the developed world
23:45.624 --> 23:50.061
countries do and actually have more robust and
23:50.061 --> 23:54.266
less stretched public finances than many countries
23:54.266 --> 23:58.770
in the West do.
23:58.770 --> 24:02.808
I looked at an interesting chart recently which is just a very simple
24:02.808 --> 24:06.812
chart, really, just tracking the relationship, the performance
24:06.812 --> 24:10.916
of US markets against other markets in the
24:10.916 --> 24:15.520
developed world but also developing markets as well.
24:15.520 --> 24:19.458
You see these cycles, they don't happen over a year or
24:19.458 --> 24:22.260
18 months, these are multi-year cycles.
24:22.260 --> 24:26.531
I think it feels to me like we're at a watershed moment
24:26.531 --> 24:31.336
in which that sort of US exceptionalism is
24:31.336 --> 24:36.374
over and we are moving into a
24:36.374 --> 24:41.713
phase, which could go on for several years, in which emerging markets,
24:41.713 --> 24:45.417
other developed markets around the world actually outperform the US.
24:45.417 --> 24:49.688
I think it requires a complete rethink of asset allocation
24:49.688 --> 24:52.624
norms which we've taken for granted for many years.
24:52.624 --> 24:56.628
Makes it a very interesting time to be investing at the
24:56.628 --> 24:56.895
moment.
24:56.895 --> 24:59.598
It's just fascinating watching all of this.
24:59.598 --> 25:04.169
You have some terrific articles in the Telegraph every week, read through
25:04.169 --> 25:08.840
some of them. The discussion of inflation, certainly, and
25:08.840 --> 25:12.811
this terrific article, a little bit about your family,
25:12.811 --> 25:16.848
sort of daughter, where you are and where your parents are, ageing beautifully
25:16.848 --> 25:21.186
in place and so on but just the discussion of how inflation ultimately
25:21.186 --> 25:25.156
will affect each generation. It sort of goes to what we're talking about here.
25:25.156 --> 25:29.427
I wonder if you could just sort of expand on the worries of
25:29.427 --> 25:33.632
perhaps the next generation to come and what they need to be thinking about
25:33.632 --> 25:36.401
as they invest.
25:36.401 --> 25:38.937
Absolutely.
25:38.937 --> 25:43.141
We've kind of shifted gears from a sort of macroeconomic
25:43.141 --> 25:47.245
analysis of what's going on in the markets
25:47.245 --> 25:52.284
to just a sort of personal financial planning thing.
25:52.284 --> 25:56.221
One of the things I've been writing about, I mean, you
25:56.221 --> 26:02.527
rightly point out that
26:02.527 --> 26:04.663
my parents are still alive, in their 90s, my children are in their 20s and 30s
26:04.663 --> 26:08.466
so I sort of sit in between those. I'm in this fortunate position of being able
26:08.466 --> 26:13.104
to see, well, for one thing, I'm
26:13.104 --> 26:17.208
lucky enough to have, I hope, reasonable genes, fingers crossed.
26:17.208 --> 26:21.246
If my parents are in their 90s I might be living and investing
26:21.246 --> 26:24.616
and managing my money for another 30 years.
26:24.616 --> 26:29.354
My daughter, who's 30, might be doing it for another 60 years.
26:29.354 --> 26:33.692
The analysis that I've done of markets and investments shows
26:33.692 --> 26:37.662
to me the absolute crucial importance of inflation
26:37.662 --> 26:40.599
over that period.
26:40.599 --> 26:45.036
The difference between inflation meeting central
26:45.036 --> 26:49.307
bank targets of, say, 2% and only
26:49.307 --> 26:53.979
just missing them, maybe being the high 2% or 3%
26:53.979 --> 26:59.584
or something like that, is enormous over a 30-year time period.
26:59.584 --> 27:03.521
I just think that we worry a lot
27:03.521 --> 27:07.592
about which markets to invest in, other sort of
27:07.592 --> 27:11.663
macro features, the one thing we really need to be worried about,
27:11.663 --> 27:15.967
I think, over the next 20, 30 years is inflation.
27:15.967 --> 27:20.105
We need to manage our personal finances, our financial planning, to
27:20.105 --> 27:21.640
cope with that.
27:21.640 --> 27:25.877
It's brilliant. Everyone should be taking a look at the Telegraph, if not
27:25.877 --> 27:28.146
subscribing all the time. Well, why not subscribe?
27:28.146 --> 27:31.149
In any case, take a look at Tom's articles.
27:31.149 --> 27:34.986
On the subject of newspapers, I'm only going to bring this up because I thought
27:34.986 --> 27:39.424
it was interesting, Fleet Street, one of their stars was
27:39.424 --> 27:43.628
Will Lewis, is Will Lewis, and he was the head of the Washington Post
27:43.628 --> 27:47.666
until just days ago when they did a pretty massive cut and they had reasons
27:47.666 --> 27:50.435
to do that.
27:50.435 --> 27:54.272
Interesting character from what I've read in various media reports.
27:54.272 --> 27:57.609
Is there anything you can enlighten us on?
27:57.609 --> 28:01.613
I know Will Lewis very well because he actually hired
28:01.613 --> 28:05.717
me 20 years ago onto the Telegraph.
28:05.717 --> 28:08.219
He was at the Telegraph.
28:08.219 --> 28:12.223
He was the editor of the Telegraph, and an
28:12.223 --> 28:16.227
interesting character, a very far-sighted
28:16.227 --> 28:19.998
visionary leader of a media organization.
28:19.998 --> 28:23.935
Actually, he saw 20 years ago the way that things were going with the
28:23.935 --> 28:26.471
print media, the move online.
28:26.471 --> 28:31.242
The Telegraph was essentially a dying publication
28:31.242 --> 28:35.346
because it had an ageing readership which was
28:35.346 --> 28:37.949
largely paper-based.
28:37.949 --> 28:42.187
He recognized that the world was changing and he created
28:42.187 --> 28:46.191
a digital- first Telegraph group and was very
28:46.191 --> 28:49.494
successful in doing that.
28:49.494 --> 28:53.631
That brought him to the attention of Rupert Murdoch and latterly Jeff Bezos
28:53.631 --> 28:55.633
at the Washington Post.
28:55.633 --> 28:59.571
Now, it clearly hasn't worked out at the Washington Post, 300 job losses
28:59.571 --> 29:04.109
was taken pretty badly by the workforce, and
29:04.109 --> 29:08.146
I don't think there are many tears being shed in
29:08.146 --> 29:12.317
Washington about his departure.
29:12.317 --> 29:16.588
Pretty remarkable and sort of inspirational
29:16.588 --> 29:19.557
leader in some ways, well, certainly 20 years ago.
29:19.557 --> 29:23.161
He chose well with you. It'll be interesting to see where he lands, I mean,
29:23.161 --> 29:27.365
just to see on the other side of that where that kind of mind goes.
29:27.365 --> 29:31.402
Anyway, thank you for taking us around the world and through some
29:31.402 --> 29:35.607
of the massive shifts that are transforming in the headlines
29:35.607 --> 29:39.644
we read each day but also just sort of quietly taking hold across
29:39.644 --> 29:43.548
the globe. We look forward to our next catch-up with you, Tom Stevenson.
29:43.548 --> 29:44.616
It's been my pleasure. Thanks.
29:44.616 --> 29:45.517
All the best.
29:45.517 --> 29:49.454
Thanks for watching or listening to the Fidelity Connects
29:49.454 --> 29:53.591
podcast. Now if you haven't done so already, please subscribe to Fidelity
29:53.591 --> 29:56.394
Connects on your podcast platform of choice.
29:56.394 --> 29:59.230
And if you like what you're hearing, please leave a review or a five-star
29:59.230 --> 30:03.201
rating. Fidelity Mutual Funds and ETFs are available by working with
30:03.201 --> 30:06.571
a financial advisor or through an online brokerage account.
30:06.571 --> 30:10.275
Visit fidelity.ca/howtobuy for more information.
30:10.275 --> 30:14.112
While on Fidelity.ca, you can also find more information on future live
30:14.112 --> 30:18.249
webcasts. And don't forget to follow Fidelity Canada on YouTube, LinkedIn,
30:18.249 --> 30:20.251
and Instagram.
30:20.251 --> 30:23.121
We'll end today's show with a short disclaimer.
30:23.121 --> 30:26.958
The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the participants,
30:26.958 --> 30:30.895
and do not necessarily reflect those of Fidelity Investments Canada ULC or
30:30.895 --> 30:34.899
its affiliates. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and should not
30:34.899 --> 30:37.435
be construed as investment, tax, or legal advice.
30:37.435 --> 30:39.737
It is not an offer to sell or buy.
30:39.737 --> 30:44.075
Or an endorsement, recommendation, or sponsorship of any entity or securities
30:44.075 --> 30:48.880
cited. Read a fund's prospectus before investing, funds are not guaranteed.
30:48.880 --> 30:52.450
Their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
30:52.450 --> 30:56.287
Fees, expenses, and commissions are all associated with fund investments.
30:56.287 --> 30:58.590
Thanks again. We'll see you next time.

