FidelityConnects: UK & Europe Market Trends: What They Mean for Global Investors
Catch up on our webcast where Investment Director Tom Stevenson explores the latest developments across the UK and European markets. Gain insights into key economic drivers, sector trends and potential opportunities that can help you position portfolios for success in today’s interconnected global landscape.
Transcript
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<b>Subtitles are AI Generated</b>
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Hello, and welcome to Fidelity Connects.
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I'm Pamela Ritchie. Ten years on from Brexit, will investors of the
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future be investing in a much more integrated Europe which includes the UK?
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Does the shake-up in today's UK political scene provide an investment
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entry point? It appears UK Prime Minister heir apparent, Andy
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Burnham, is pledging to transfer powers out of London and
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into more municipal and regional economies.
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A reversal of Westminster-centric rule how will markets digest
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Burnham's pledge overall?
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On the eve of important summits like NATO's annual in Turkey
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does this moment mark a pivotal time in the century for European
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investment in sectors like defence, banking, and, of course, AI?
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Joining us here today live from London to discuss these topics is Fidelity
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investment director Tom Stevenson.
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Tom, great to see you again. How are you?
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I'm very well, Pamela. Thanks very much for having me back on the show.
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It's good to be here.
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We're always delighted to have you and what a moment for it.
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I mean, there are many moving parts. Shall
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we begin with a bit of a reflection on Brexit?
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It has been 10 years and I think a lot of people, the discussion is
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where were you when it happened? We all watched the pound sink and then shoot
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back up again, actually.
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What is sort of your takeaways at this point as you've been living it
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and reporting on it?
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There were different angles, aren't there?
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I think from an economic perspective I
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think there is, you know, fairly broad agreement now
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that Brexit has not been a huge success for the
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UK economy.
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I mean, the proponents of Brexit will claim that it just wasn't executed
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well enough and the remainers will claim that it should never
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have happened in the first place. There'll always be that disagreement.
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I think that the UK economy is probably smaller than it would have
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been were it not for Brexit.
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I think in market terms, you know,
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I wrote about this recently and I think it's interesting because
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clearly the UK stock market has performed relatively
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poorly over the last 10 years, certainly compared to
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the US stock market.
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I think it's quite difficult to really point the finger at Brexit and say
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that's the reason why the UK stock market has done
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badly. Many of the factors
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which have contributed to the poor performance were
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already happening in 2016.
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For example, you know, UK pension funds were already
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reducing their exposure to the domestic stock market in favor of
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global exposure.
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The UK pension funds had something like
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40% of their assets held in UK stocks, it's now about 5%.
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There's been a massive diminution in importance of the
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UK stock market. I think that was already happening,
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I think what was also already happening was this preference
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for investors to invest in
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growth sectors, particularly technology which is an area which
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the UK, even at the time, was not particularly strong in.
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I think you can point the finger at Brexit but I think it's a more
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nuanced situation than just pointing the finger and blaming Brexit
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for what's happened.
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For sure, because many things happened at the same time.
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There was a pandemic to get through. The world shifted in many different ways
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all at the same time. Is it important to take a look
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from here where some further integration with
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Europe comes back in, or not?
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I mean, perhaps it doesn't.
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You certainly see the EU discussing what they need to change to perhaps
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include new neighbours.
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Ukraine's working towards it, we know that story there.
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It also is retooling itself, to an extent, to
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address the world that it lives in today.
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Is there a thought that the UK might come back in almost as if it was joining
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for the first time an organization that is also shifting itself?
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I think there's been a shifting appreciation
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of the benefits of membership of an
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organization such as the European Union.
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The geopolitical landscape has changed out of all recognition
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in 10 years and Europe needs to be as strong as it
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can be in those circumstances.
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The UK economy is still a very significant large economy.
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The UK's armed forces while diminished are still very
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significant and have expertise which would be extremely useful to
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a European armed force.
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I think that there is a desire probably on both sides to have some
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sort of closer integration. It's still politically
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sensitive but it is less politically sensitive than it was even just a few
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years ago. I mean, if you had a referendum today
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without a shadow of doubt the UK would not leave the EU.
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Now, that's not quite the same thing as saying that
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the UK would vote to go back into the EU,
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and if it did it would probably do it in different circumstances
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and in a different framework.
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This is a long process, this is not going to happen in the next three,
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five years. Frankly, if it happens in my lifetime I'll be quite surprised.
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But I do think that the UK is going to get closer to Europe.
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I'll just push back on that point a little bit because it seems like the heir
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apparent prime minister, Andy Burnham, who will come in to replace Keir Starmer
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as leader of the UK, is pushing for
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to push through agendas faster.
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Your words, perhaps Keir Starmer when
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the sort of chips fall was not bold enough in pushing through
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new agendas to address a new world, a shifting world.
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I mean, every country is dealing with this. Every country is trying to shift
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and change their industry and make sure that it's ready and retooled so that it
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can protect itself, ultimately, and its economy.
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What will Andy Burnham, we think probably the next prime minister, actually
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execute on? I think almost we need to be brought up to date on what the
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framework and goal is here.
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Andy Burnham made his first big
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speech as heir apparent, if you like,
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today, just a couple of hours ago.
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He did broadly set out a kind of 10-year
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agenda. It's not so very different from what the
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last two years Labour government, I think, would like to have achieved.
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I think the focus is slightly different. The previous government was really
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focused on trying to create growth in the
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economy. It has signally failed to do that and I think that is one of
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the reasons why two years after achieving
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a very big landslide victory in
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the general election it is now extremely unpopular as a government,
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which is why we've got the change that we have got.
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I think that Andy Burnham's focus is more of a traditional,
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if you like, left-wing view of the world.
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He's talking about a massive expansion in council
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house building, for example. Much needed, the UK has
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failed to build enough houses for not years but decades.
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That's one thing that he's promised to do.
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He's talked about skills and retooling the
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economy more to reindustrialize
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the economy, creating more of a sort of, I would say a German style
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economy where apprenticeships are as highly
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valued as a university education, for example.
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That's huge, right?
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Just take a stab, tell us what foreign students coming to
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UK universities was worth to the economy.
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I mean, at one point, that was a huge chunk.
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It was known for university education.
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To shift that slightly would be pretty massive, no?
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Well, there was a massive change under a
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previous Labour government where university education
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which was the preserve of the few became the preserve of
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half the population.
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I don't think that experiment has really worked because I think
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a lot of young people went into a university education
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where they would have been better suited yo a more practical,
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vocational education.
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I think that what Andy Burnham is suggesting is that we rethink the
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education system in the UK, which, as you say, is a
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very big step. I think the third element that he talked about in his speech
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which is very significant is in terms of ownership of
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the productive assets of the economy, whether
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that's utilities, water, electricity, railways.
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Now, again, what he's not suggesting is that he's going to come into power and
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renationalize everything.
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And pay for it.
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For one thing the money is not there to do that, and everyone
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knows the money is not there to do that.
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This is an aspirational thing.
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This is something which is going to take 10 years.
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That's why he's talking about a 10-year program because
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all of this costs a huge amount of money.
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Burnham does have some form here.
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He made some comments a few months ago which really
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rattled the financial markets. He said, you know, I'm not going to be in
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hock to the bond market, his words, and he's
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been really backpedaling from that ever since.
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As we all know, politicians
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and the financial markets operate together
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in a close embrace and they need to trust each other.
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I think that where we are at the moment is the bond market is, for now, giving
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Andy Burnham the benefit of the doubt.
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He said I will stick to the previous government's fiscal rules,
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I will be fiscally responsible.
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Yes, I have ambitious plans for the economy but I will not do that
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in an irresponsible way. The bond market is, for now, saying, okay, we believe
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you, you know, let's have some more detail on those plans.
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Bond yields have actually fallen since the announcement of
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Keir Starmer's resignation and since it became clear that Burnham was
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almost certainly going to be the next Prime Minister.
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Some certainty, perhaps, just being priced in where directionally
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things will go. Let's talk a little bit about AI within the
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UK. You've mentioned a number of pieces there.
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We seem to be at a new stage for all countries around
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the world who are developing aspects of AI, trying to figure out the platform
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for regulation. Nobody's quite sorted it out completely.
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There's still innovation. The next step you've written recently in
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The Telegraph is perhaps the picks and shovels but also those using
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the picks and shovels. I wonder if you can tell us more about that.
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On some level that's kind of every company deploying it
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to make things more accretive, ultimately, because you're using AI
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to bring down costs and up productivity.
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Is that where you're going with that one?
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I think the big question facing investors at the moment is, you know,
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is the AI boom really an AI bubble?
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I think the answer to that is that there are certain elements of the
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AI story which are overcooked.
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Maybe some of the
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semiconductor plays, the initial beneficiaries if you
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like, massive growth has been
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priced in to the market. I think the interesting thing from AI is
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that this is such
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a fundamental groundbreaking technology that it does change everything.
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The real beneficiaries of the AI
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boom will not necessarily be those initial companies that are
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building the infrastructure. They will be the companies that learn to use
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it effectively, exactly the same story as 25 years ago with the internet, but I
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think that there's also a transition going on between
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the initial sort of cognitive
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element of AI, the initial digital element, and its
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transfer into the physical world.
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I think the whole
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focus of the economy is going to shift from a digital-only
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focus more to a physical focus.
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I think that has enormous implications, investment implications as well,
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in terms of demand for not just commodities but
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also the kind of precision engineering,
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the automation, the robotics, the things that will be
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driven by AI in the future.
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The way investors need to think about this is they need to think about where
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is the expertise, where will people really benefit from that?
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For me, countries like Japan really come to the fore.
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I think that this is a massive opportunity for an economy like Japan's
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which has enormous expertise and knowledge in
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those areas I mentioned, precision engineering, robotics,
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automation, factory automation.
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I think it's good news for countries like your own.
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I think that's the commodities that will be sucked into this.
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Canada, Australia, South America, Latin America,
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emerging markets. I think it's good for some other sort of old
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economy economies, like the UK's, because
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some of the things that we are good at are more in focus now
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than maybe they have been for 10 years.
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I think this is not just a short term or a temporary shift,
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I think that this is a multi-year shift and a change in the
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balance of the economy.
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Which makes it more like a long term boom, a bullish, anyway,
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than so much of a bubble.
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Just to say a bit more ... there's a question coming in talking about growth
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specifically in the UK, also across Europe and the segments.
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You've mentioned precision drilling, things like robotics, other things,
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I guess just a further question about where you do
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... either types of companies or sectors where you do see growth potentially
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happening. I don't know if it's tied to the political regionalization of things
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as well but where do you see growth in the UK and Europe?
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I think one of the sort of key stories about Europe,
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and I'd include the UK in that, is that the geopolitical
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picture has changed so fundamentally over the last 10
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years that we, as a region, we need
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to stand on our own two feet in a way that we have not had to do in
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the past for obvious reasons.
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I think that that will demand enormous
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investment in defence for one thing
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but also more generally in just a reindustrialization
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of our economy, less of
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a focus on just sort of consuming things and more
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making things.
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Infrastructure spending, reindustrialization,
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defence spending, these are all sort of heavy,
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hard old economy type industries.
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A lot of those industries have just been passed over by investors for so long.
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For the last 10 years or so the focus has just been on technology
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and growth and it is now much more on the sort of physical world
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and value and those sectors have just been passed over.
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You mentioned that maybe this has an
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impact on the bull market and the duration of the bull market.
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This bull market, arguably, has been going on for about 17 years since the
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financial crisis. Now, if you look at the previous two bull markets in
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the post-war period they lasted for about 18 years, in the 1950s
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and '60s and then again in the '80s and '90s.
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Just in terms of duration you might say, well, I think
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this market is getting long in the tooth and it's mature and
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it's ready for a correction.
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I think that this shift in the economy, the shift in the focus of the
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economy has the potential to extend the bull market.
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I think for investors it's an interesting but also quite an exciting
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development.
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And is it possible we're just getting started?
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I mean, when you look at valuations, I mean, the
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argument is that earnings are there and they're not as expensive as you might
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think they would be.
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They're priced sort of quite well for entry points, arguably,
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this is what some people tell us. I mean, what do you think about that?
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I mean, there could be the argument that we are just getting started on some of
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this stuff.
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Yeah, I think we absolutely are just getting started on
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a completely transformational change in
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the global economy.
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The more I investigate and look into AI
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I think it has so much potential to change
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everything. Are we just getting into it?
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Possibly. Has it got a long way to run?
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Yes, absolutely, it does as a technology.
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As an investment I think it still has a way to run because I think we've got
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these rotations. It's not a straight line and one
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aspect of it will run out, others will pick up the baton and move
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on.
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I'm actually, curiously, I am more optimistic, I'm
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more bullish in the long run than
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I was earlier on in this bull market.
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Maybe it will come back to bite me, that optimism, but it just
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feels like this is a fundamental transformation.
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What is also quite interesting being
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forced through the doors here is the institutional changes.
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The global organizations are changing NATO.
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The question of what it needs to be going forward.
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There's a summit coming up with the question of whether in a way the Arctic
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will sort of be what links everything together rather than just the Atlantic
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treaty. It might be a little bit more north.
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We don't know how that's all going to work. But they are changing leadership.
19:33.505 --> 19:36.675
Europe is being asked to stand on his own two feet in the way the US is
19:36.675 --> 19:40.712
retreating. Tell us a bit about the UK in that, in sort of
19:40.712 --> 19:44.082
the defence area because that's the discussion that's gonna come up.
19:44.082 --> 19:48.453
Who's gonna be running the show here?
19:48.453 --> 19:52.391
I don't know who will be running the show but I think in terms of
19:52.391 --> 19:56.828
expertise and knowledge and know-how the
19:56.828 --> 20:00.232
UK has a really important role to play in that.
20:00.232 --> 20:03.769
I mean, our defence industries are very sophisticated.
20:03.769 --> 20:07.940
We have some really top notch companies in the likes of
20:07.940 --> 20:12.678
Rolls Royce and British Aerospace.
20:12.678 --> 20:16.615
Obviously, we're not alone in that, there are very significant German and
20:16.615 --> 20:20.085
French and Italian players in all of those markets.
20:20.085 --> 20:24.423
I think working together
20:24.423 --> 20:29.428
it's extremely powerful. Europe
20:29.428 --> 20:33.765
gets written off and there are good reasons why it can
20:33.765 --> 20:37.703
be dismissed by investors. It's a bureaucratic, it's
20:37.703 --> 20:39.838
a fragmented environment.
20:39.838 --> 20:43.775
It's not the United
20:43.775 --> 20:48.447
States of America
20:48.447 --> 20:51.450
but there are huge strengths within Europe.
20:51.450 --> 20:55.587
That's why I think both sides
20:55.587 --> 20:59.791
really are open-minded about having a much closer relationship
20:59.791 --> 21:05.030
because I think the UK has an awful lot to offer Europe.
21:05.030 --> 21:06.765
Bring us up to date on ...
21:06.765 --> 21:10.969
since the invasion of Ukraine the UK and other countries have been
21:10.969 --> 21:15.107
figuring out how they need to make sure they get energy.
21:15.107 --> 21:19.044
It actually hasn't just happened because of the oil crisis in the Straits
21:19.044 --> 21:23.115
of Hormuz right now, it's been something that's going on for four years and
21:23.115 --> 21:27.753
trying to make that everything from institutions
21:27.753 --> 21:32.190
as well as the energy that you power automobile
21:32.190 --> 21:36.495
manufacturers in Germany has a sustainable source of
21:36.495 --> 21:40.065
power that is not Russian, or is less Russian.
21:40.065 --> 21:41.967
How would you say that transition is going?
21:41.967 --> 21:44.936
I mean, there's a lot of sort of Canadian discussions and US discussions how
21:44.936 --> 21:48.974
LNG can get there to Europe. Those deals are being crafted
21:48.974 --> 21:52.878
but it is a transition, how's it going?
21:52.878 --> 21:56.948
Well, I would say it's probably not going
21:56.948 --> 21:59.885
as well as we would hope.
21:59.885 --> 22:04.156
I think that what the last four years has really made clear
22:04.156 --> 22:08.460
to Europe is that we are exposed on the
22:08.460 --> 22:10.195
energy front.
22:10.195 --> 22:14.232
We have allowed ourselves to become exposed
22:14.232 --> 22:18.437
because we have not taken seriously the threats which are
22:18.437 --> 22:21.473
now abundantly clear.
22:21.473 --> 22:23.208
It's not that we can't sort it out.
22:23.208 --> 22:27.379
You mentioned a greater
22:27.379 --> 22:31.416
dependence or greater sourcing of
22:31.416 --> 22:35.554
energy from your side of the pond to Europe, it's absolutely
22:35.554 --> 22:39.591
something that we have to do because we cannot rely on energy
22:39.591 --> 22:43.862
coming from either Russia or the Middle East
22:43.862 --> 22:47.699
to the extent that we have allowed ourselves to in the past.
22:47.699 --> 22:51.069
Would you say either with this change of government or just the fact that for
22:51.069 --> 22:55.006
the last year countries in Europe and the UK have
22:55.006 --> 22:58.677
known that this is coming, that the US is retreating and that they have to step
22:58.677 --> 23:03.515
up and solve things like energy security and defence and so on,
23:03.515 --> 23:06.585
is an interesting entry point, I guess is the question.
23:06.585 --> 23:10.589
It does appear that governments are very much on this, obsessing
23:10.589 --> 23:14.659
over it, making sure that the changes and sort of the pathways for those
23:14.659 --> 23:17.596
changes are being crafted.
23:17.596 --> 23:22.501
We're not there yet but is it an interesting time to take a look?
23:22.501 --> 23:27.906
In investment terms, yeah, absolutely.
23:27.906 --> 23:34.579
While all this has been happening the focus has been elsewhere.
23:34.579 --> 23:37.416
The focus is still elsewhere. I mean, I think there are very attractive
23:37.416 --> 23:41.820
investment opportunities in places like Japan, we
23:41.820 --> 23:44.423
talked about the robotics and the automation there.
23:44.423 --> 23:48.160
Emerging markets, to a large extent that's a commodity story.
23:48.160 --> 23:52.731
While all this has been going on
23:52.731 --> 23:54.766
Europe and the UK have been overlooked.
23:54.766 --> 23:57.502
They've been out of favour.
23:57.502 --> 24:01.506
They are significantly
24:01.506 --> 24:05.677
cheap, especially the UK, the UK more than the continental
24:05.677 --> 24:09.714
European markets. The UK is trading on
24:09.714 --> 24:15.954
11 or 12 times earnings. It's roughly half as expensive as
24:15.954 --> 24:20.492
the US market. That is not really a fair reflection of the outlook in the
24:20.492 --> 24:24.429
UK. There are some good companies in the UK and
24:24.429 --> 24:26.431
they are extremely cheap at the moment.
24:26.431 --> 24:30.735
I think what we're seeing is that not just overseas investors
24:30.735 --> 24:35.040
but also overseas businesses are really recognizing the undervaluation
24:35.040 --> 24:39.044
of the UK market. Hardly a week
24:39.044 --> 24:43.048
goes by when we don't see another significant UK company
24:43.048 --> 24:50.021
receive a takeover bid, usually from the US
24:50.021 --> 24:54.092
but not always from the US. There is a recognition that the
24:54.092 --> 24:57.629
UK is undervalued compared to its potential.
24:57.629 --> 25:00.632
It could be a fascinating moment.
25:00.632 --> 25:04.870
Talk a little bit about the very business forward
25:04.870 --> 25:07.906
changes to the European political scene, if you don't mind.
25:07.906 --> 25:11.877
I'm thinking of Giorgia Meloni and the discussions, she's taken a bit more
25:11.877 --> 25:16.047
of a leadership role in sort of pushing, I guess you'd say the integration of
25:16.047 --> 25:18.917
Europe. She seems to be pushing for that.
25:18.917 --> 25:21.353
There are other voices as well.
25:21.353 --> 25:25.790
I just wanted to, as we close, just get your thoughts on a slightly shifting
25:25.790 --> 25:29.895
political chess field,
25:29.895 --> 25:33.365
I guess, for that. What do you think about Europe right now in terms of
25:33.365 --> 25:37.035
leadership?
25:37.035 --> 25:42.274
I think Europe still suffers from
25:42.274 --> 25:44.342
fragmentation politically.
25:44.342 --> 25:49.581
I think the
25:49.581 --> 25:53.852
desire is there for closer integration and
25:53.852 --> 25:57.689
the need is there for closer immigration.
25:57.689 --> 26:03.495
I think we are still a significant way off from from where we need to be.
26:03.495 --> 26:07.532
Britain coming back into that debate is part
26:07.532 --> 26:11.770
of it but it's going to take some
26:11.770 --> 26:15.840
time, it's gonna take some time. Really, I think if Europe could
26:15.840 --> 26:19.811
focus on one thing it would just be speed of action, getting things done more
26:19.811 --> 26:20.779
quickly.
26:20.779 --> 26:24.916
Does it matter to investors that that may not happen for X
26:24.916 --> 26:29.220
years? I mean, every country is investing in various critical
26:29.220 --> 26:33.291
areas of their economy and it's going to take until the 2030s
26:33.291 --> 26:36.361
for it to actually come through. Can you get in now, I guess, again, is the
26:36.361 --> 26:39.130
investment story while everything gets sorted out.
26:39.130 --> 26:43.535
Yeah, I think it does matter, the slowness of delivery
26:43.535 --> 26:47.672
matters because I think it will lead to something of
26:47.672 --> 26:50.375
a discount being attached to Europe.
26:50.375 --> 26:54.546
There is always the doubt whether it can
26:54.546 --> 26:58.750
be enacted quickly enough before the world moves on again and you're
26:58.750 --> 27:00.752
constantly running to catch up.
27:00.752 --> 27:04.756
I do think that many of the Asian economies,
27:04.756 --> 27:09.327
the US economy, other economies are more dynamic than
27:09.327 --> 27:14.065
Europe. I think that to an extent that the discount
27:14.065 --> 27:18.236
is warranted, to an extent, I just think it's too big.
27:18.236 --> 27:22.474
Okay, interesting. Do investors need to worry too much about a rate
27:22.474 --> 27:26.411
environment? In the US they'll say, yeah, could see a little
27:26.411 --> 27:30.415
bit up, or even down, but it's probably not gonna be a massive begin of
27:30.415 --> 27:33.251
a cycle. What about in Europe?
27:33.251 --> 27:35.186
I think the same story.
27:35.186 --> 27:39.157
We saw the ECB raising interest rates by a quarter of a point
27:39.157 --> 27:41.960
at its last meeting.
27:41.960 --> 27:45.096
The world was a very different place even just a few weeks ago.
27:45.096 --> 27:49.801
Oil at $100 a barrel, clearly inflationary.
27:49.801 --> 27:53.838
The ECB was clearly concerned about that, hiked rates by
27:53.838 --> 27:58.309
a quarter point. I think at $70 a barrel
27:58.309 --> 28:01.146
the pressure is off on inflation.
28:01.146 --> 28:05.684
I think that we probably won't see many more
28:05.684 --> 28:09.654
hikes in Europe and it's quite likely that we won't see
28:09.654 --> 28:12.757
a hike in the UK either.
28:12.757 --> 28:15.226
It's fantastic. I feel like you've given us a bit of a tour.
28:15.226 --> 28:18.296
We really needed one of Europe right now. This is an important moment.
28:18.296 --> 28:21.399
Is there any final thought you'd like to leave with investors on this side of
28:21.399 --> 28:25.070
the pond?
28:25.070 --> 28:29.074
The point that I always like to make is that
28:29.074 --> 28:33.211
the beauty of being an investor is you don't need to focus on one area
28:33.211 --> 28:37.148
completely. There are opportunities all around the world.
28:37.148 --> 28:41.319
For me, the biggest takeaway at the moment is I just think this whole
28:41.319 --> 28:45.757
AI transformation, this revolution is changing everything.
28:45.757 --> 28:48.093
I think it extends the bull market.
28:48.093 --> 28:51.162
I'm actually pretty optimistic at the moment.
28:51.162 --> 28:53.398
Fantastic. I'd love to end on that note.
28:53.398 --> 28:55.133
It does seem to be coming to the fore.
28:55.166 --> 28:59.170
Tom Stevenson, have a great week ahead and very happy to see you again.
28:59.170 --> 29:00.305
All the best.
29:00.305 --> 29:02.941
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