FidelityConnects: Jurrien Timmer – The global macro view April 27, 2026

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Hello, and welcome to Fidelity Connects.

 

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I'm Pamela Richie. As the world adjusts to the new realities of a more

 

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multi-polar world countries like Canada lay the foundation for further

 

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fiscal spending and a sovereign wealth fund we learned today.

 

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For investors the rest of the world fiscal spend, along with

 

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the US tech propulsion, appear to pave the path for an unstoppable equity

 

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market. Or does it? Tech earnings this week may either confirm or

 

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deny the continued acceleration thesis.

 

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If vigorous spending by both tech CapEx and governments can

 

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provide investment opportunities through even the most jagged of geopolitical

 

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resets, can it spell a bullish second half for 2026?

 

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Joining us here today to help you see how far the needle could move with the

 

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wind at corporations' backs is Fidelity Director of Global Macro,

 

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Jurrien Timmer. Warm welcome to you, Jurrien.

 

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There is lots of fascinating information that you need to guide us through here

 

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but there's some bright lights out there.

 

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Welcome.

 

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Good morning.

 

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So we kick off the week here ...

 

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we'll invite everyone to join you and send their questions in, first of all,

 

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but do tell us what we make, first of all, of the rate story

 

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with, it looks like, Kevin Warsh right in through the door now, and

 

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also the earnings. I wonder which piece you want to take first because they're

 

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both central to this week.

 

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Why don't we start with earnings, and maybe we could pull up slide

 

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1 just to show you just a very high frequency chart of the

 

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S&P on a tick-by-tick basis.

 

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This is what we wake up to every morning to

 

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see where it is, it just highlights that low on March

 

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30th or March 31st, I can't remember exactly which one it

 

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was, but down 9.8% at the low and has now obviously

 

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rallied to new highs.

 

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When we look at that compared to, for instance, slide 3

 

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which is the 1990 Gulf War analog you

 

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can see that the market is following that script.

 

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The bottom panel shows the drawdown in the P/E, and we talked about this last

 

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week, that the P/E fell twice as much as the P,

 

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as the price, because of the topic you just raised, which

 

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is earnings, which we'll get into.

 

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The market has sort of moved on as if the oil spike will

 

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be short-lived and will be completely reversed as it was

 

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back in 1990.

 

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Of course, that hasn't happened yet.

 

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Oil is at $97 for WTI.

 

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The market has sort of moved on and it is embracing

 

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the earnings boom.

 

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We can see slide 7, earnings season is underway now

 

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and about a third of the companies have reported.

 

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Typical 78% are beating but they're beating by

 

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a thousand basis points, which is a lot.

 

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We can see that those incoming waves, if you think about

 

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this as a surfing metaphor, usually those

 

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waves crest early and start to decelerate

 

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as you get closer to earnings season.

 

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We're seeing the opposite, the waves are getting bigger and they're rising

 

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further. That shows very strong earnings

 

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momentum, not only for the current quarter, the last four

 

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quarters but the incoming quarters as well.

 

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There's really something big going on.

 

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It's easy to say in slide

 

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5 that this is all AI.

 

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Of course, the AI boom has certainly a big part to do with that.

 

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We see the various themes, memory, data centres,

 

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semiconductors, all breaking out very handsomely from

 

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essentially what were trading ranges.

 

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It goes to the old market adage that if a stock

 

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refuses to go down it's

 

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destined to go up.

 

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These stocks basically didn't really go down during the

 

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Iran conflict. I mean, they went down a little bit but they didn't even break

 

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their holding patterns, and then as soon as the conflict ends, or is

 

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perceived to have ended, these stocks accelerate again.

 

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Earnings are really driving the bus here.

 

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I think the Fed is a little bit on background for now now that the

 

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market is not expecting any rate cuts anytime soon.

 

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With Kevin Warsh now clear to come in now that Tom Tillis,

 

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Senator of North Carolina.

 

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has backed off from his blocking, now that

 

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DOJ probe has ended, Warsh will be

 

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confirmed, I'm sure, or I presume, and

 

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we'll have the Warsh-Bessent Treasury Fed.

 

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This will be a new era.

 

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So just explain, I mean, so much of this ...

 

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we kind of think that Scott Bessent had a

 

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view on how this would all work ultimately, knowing when he came into the

 

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position that time would be ultimately for the Powell Fed in

 

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his term.

 

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Take us to the fiscal backdrop of how this is going to work and

 

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kind of why it needs to work for the US economy, not just for

 

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the stock markets, which is also important to what you're talking about, but

 

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for the economy of the US.

 

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Let's go to slide 14.

 

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Actually, let's go to Slide 15 first.

 

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A big narrative, and it's not unique to the

 

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Republicans, it was a big narrative under the Democrats, any kind of

 

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populist administration which, of course, the Biden administration was as well,

 

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has focused on this wealth inequality,

 

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Wall Street versus Main Street, and the stock market may

 

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be doing well but most people don't feel that good.

 

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It's called the K-shaped recovery or the K-shaped economy.

 

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You can see it very clear. I even put a K in that.

 

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If you look at GDP versus potential GDP,

 

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which is the line in the yellow at the top, and you look at

 

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the difference between those two it shows you that the economy

 

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continues to grow above potential.

 

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The economy is growing really nicely.

 

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We're in mid-cycle. We just talked about earnings.

 

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At the surface level everything looks really, really good.

 

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Then you look at consumer confidence, the University of Michigan in the purple

 

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there, and it is basically at an all-time low.

 

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That shows the disconnect between Wall

 

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Street and Main Street. There are a number of reasons for it.

 

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It's the political polarity, of course, the [indecipherable]

 

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separates the results by political affiliation.

 

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As you might imagine, the Republicans are feeling a lot better

 

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about the economy than the Democrats right now.

 

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The opposite will be true under a different administration.

 

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I think what's mostly driving this is the fact that the CPI index

 

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is up about 30% since 2020.

 

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The growth rate may only be 3% down from 9

 

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but that's cold comfort for the average American who is living paycheque to

 

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paycheque, who is literally paying 30% more than he

 

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or she did six years ago.

 

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This is part of the broader political narrative.

 

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The other part of this, of course, is the deficit, the debt, which

 

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is now close to $40 trillion, about

 

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112% of GDP.

 

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Scott Bessent, and if we pull up slide 14, knows as well as anyone,

 

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or better than anyone, that can

 

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become unsustainable if the economy does not grow

 

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fast enough. When we look at the 10-year

 

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yield, which is there in that triangle, it's been very, very quiet.

 

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That, I think, in part shows you how much respect Bessent gets in the market

 

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because nobody wants to bet against them, and if Bessent wants

 

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4 1/2% or lower long rates then he's going to figure out a way to get

 

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that done. You can do that with debt management and things like that.

 

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I think the Warsh Fed will want to cut rates at the short end,

 

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steepen the yield curve and then incentivize the banks to

 

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essentially take over part of the Fed's bloated balance

 

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sheet.  Remember that QE, and we can go to slide 16 here, remember

 

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QE was a byproduct of the zero lower bound days, the

 

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financial crisis, COVID.

 

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When you can't push rates any lower because they're at zero

 

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Bernanke back then, and Powell more recently, relied

 

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on the balance sheet to try to stimulate, but it's

 

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really only when that happens that it's necessary.

 

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When you look at the Fed's balance sheet now

 

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it's 6 1/2 trillion. Warsh would argue that nothing good happens when the Fed

 

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has such a big thumb on the market that you get

 

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price discovery signals going awry and, again,

 

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the Wall Street versus Main Street, that if the banks were to own that

 

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debt they could multiply it, because those are then reserves

 

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that go into lending, and then Main Street would benefit

 

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from more credit availability rather than

 

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Wall Street because the asset owners tend to be wealthier

 

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in this country. If the Fed is pushing down risk premia

 

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in the bond market it's the rich that supposedly benefit the

 

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most.

 

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I think that's the broader narrative here.

 

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There will be coordination between the Fed and the Treasury.

 

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Then the question is how much is too much?

 

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If Warsh and Bessent really get

 

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politicized, which I'm not expecting and I hope it doesn't happen,

 

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and let's say the Fed pushes rates to 2

 

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1/2 under the rationalization that R-star is much lower than we all think, and

 

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the bond market says no, that's not justified then the curve will bear

 

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steepen and you get that 5% yield and then you have problems.

 

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Fascinating. You did an incredible heat map that so

 

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many of the pieces that you just talked about now sort of correlate to things

 

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going on. I wonder if we can ... I think it's slide 2 in the order that you

 

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have things. Everyone needs to get out their spectacles here to take a

 

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look. In any case there's there's some fascinating pieces.

 

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I would just pick out the discussion of equity vol,

 

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how it has returned back to ...

 

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it's been a very volatile month and a half ...

 

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but it's returned back to its averages right now which, again, people

 

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sort of have recency bias, you kind of can't believe that.

 

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What else would you point out here that is our reality today?

 

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Obviously, it's a little hard to read but this is essentially what I,

 

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again, wake up to every morning because when the markets are

 

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in a state of stress or dislocation when big

 

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events happen ...

 

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I did the same thing during COVID, obviously with Iran, there

 

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could be other episodes as well ...

 

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one service I try to do for my colleagues,

 

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the PMs including the ones who are running the Canadian assets, I'm

 

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trying to figure out what are the important moving parts

 

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and how are they getting better or worse.

 

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That's why I do these heat maps, if something is getting worse it

 

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gets more red, if something is getting better it gets more green or less red.

 

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We're not going to trade off of these things, that's not how we make

 

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portfolio decisions, but it helps kind of get a

 

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sense of are things getting worse or better?

 

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Are they becoming more stressful or less stressful?

 

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Down the middle of that chart, as you just mentioned, are various

 

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volatility indices, the VIX, the MOVE which is the volatility

 

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for bonds, you've got the CIVX which is volatility on the

 

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dollar, and you've got OVX which is volatility on oil.

 

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Usually markets will bottom

 

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when things start getting less bad, not when things get

 

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good because then the signal's already passed, but when they

 

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get less bad. Usually when that second derivative reaches

 

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an extreme that's when the market starts to behave better.

 

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For my colleagues here, if they're looking to rebalance

 

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those are important signals.

 

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I'm also highlighting this recently just on stage, if you're going to be

 

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in Scottsdale next week you'll

 

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see it on the big screen. It's also a way to

 

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help, not calm investors but to let them know that we're

 

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looking at all the things and therefore they don't need to

 

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panic, basically. We have their back, basically, that's kind of

 

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the reason we do this. On a normal week  I'm not looking at heat maps

 

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but at times of dislocation we do.

 

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Let's go into earnings a bit further. You mentioned it there off the top.

 

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One of the things I thought was fascinating in some of the work that you've

 

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done is that it is a global trend, the strength of earnings, which I

 

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think we knew that three months ago but it was almost we were left a

 

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little bit in the wilderness there as the Iran War took hold

 

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of the global narrative.

 

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But yet EM, it is a global story on the earnings front.

 

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Do you want to just take us to that and remind us that the whole world is

 

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taking part? It doesn't mean it can't be interrupted, I guess, but at the

 

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moment it's looking good.

 

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We'll pull off slide 10 which I think is a cool visual ...

 

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not because I made the chart but just because it shows--

 

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It usually is because you made the chart.

 

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--it shows different assets. You've got the Mag-7 on the top, the S&P in the

 

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black, EAFE which is developed non-US in the green, and

 

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EM in the pink.

 

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What's cool about it is because they're all measured on the same logarithmic

 

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scale. That allows you to look at the slopes on an

 

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apples to apples basis.

 

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You can clearly see that, of course, over the past five years

 

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or so the Mag-7 was completely dominating.

 

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You can see that EM especially is really coming

 

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to life in the last couple of quarters.

 

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It helps explain that this is not

 

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just about AI or the One Big Beautiful

 

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Bill Act, this really is a global story and it's no longer

 

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dominated by the US.

 

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It's not even dominated by the Mag-7 anymore.

 

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My sense is on the EM side is that

 

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part of this narrative, I think, is that commodities have

 

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become a strategic asset.

 

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Actually, those positive squiggles remind me

 

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of kind of the post-financial crisis days.

 

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Remember in 2008 during the GFC it really

 

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was China that pulled the global economy kind of

 

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out of the dumps.

 

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It was the Fed with QE, it was a cycle that went so extreme

 

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that it had kind of weeded out all the bad credit,

 

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or it weeded out all the leverage, let me put it that way, but it was China

 

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that did this monster infrastructure stimulus.

 

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Back then it was the reflation trade.

 

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So China stimulates, it builds a lot of stuff, commodities go up,

 

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the dollar goes down, the world booms.

 

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Those days are long gone because China built everything and now has

 

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a deflated housing bubble to show for it.

 

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Now with Iran and with tariffs and de-globalization

 

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and with Russia and its oil, and

 

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Venezuela, that story there, you could tell that commodities have become

 

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strategic assets again.

 

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Even now we're hearing stories, you know, we're talking about, of course, the

 

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Strait of Hormuz and whether Iran can collect tolls on the ships,

 

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but we're hearing stories out of Indonesia with the Malacca

 

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Straits, whether it's looking at that and say, well, why don't we do that?

 

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You can see a fragmented economy with

 

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fragmented shipping and strategic significance

 

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to commodities. Maybe we're back into that mindset

 

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for emerging markets and the countries that have the commodities,

 

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including Canada, of course. That's why I think Canada is looking better

 

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than it has in a long time.

 

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And launching a sovereign wealth fund because you might as well make some money

 

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on all that.

 

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You look at the sectors themselves, it

 

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seems like if you were to go to the US for sure tech is right at the top, and

 

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we understand why, why aren't the commodity producers a little higher

 

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up on the ranks there?

 

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The AI boom has, of course, gone a very, very long way.

 

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Actually, why don't we pull up slide 8.

 

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The AI boom has come a long way.

 

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You can argue it's priced in or whether it's not priced in but commodities

 

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were left for dead for a long, long time.

 

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Actually, instead of this chart let's go to, where

 

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are you, slide 17.

 

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Commodities were in the dumps for years.

 

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They moved up in 2022 because we had

 

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the inflation spike during Covid.

 

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They fell again and now they're up again because copper

 

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is strong, gold was strong, is now kind of treading water a

 

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little bit, and, of course, the oil trade.

 

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If we look at this on a longer term basis, on slide 18,

 

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we can see that the super cycle or the secular bull remains

 

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intact.

 

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I think this is just a matter of the last

 

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10+ years it was large-cap growth

 

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that dominated and anything that was value did not.

 

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Energy stocks, especially, but really any commodity stocks, whether it

 

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was industrial metals or what have you, I think had a bad

 

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track record. An oil company, whenever oil prices

 

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would go up, you know, you talk to one of our PMs here in equities

 

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they'll say, well, if oil prices go up and you make a higher margin send me

 

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that back via a special dividend or a buyback.

 

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Don't go spend that on drilling new

 

[00:19:18.557]

wells, that's not capital discipline.

 

[00:19:21.360]

For decades oil companies would do that and now

 

[00:19:25.497]

the big ones are much more savvy because it's people like Will Danoff

 

[00:19:29.801]

telling them just give it back to us,

 

[00:19:33.772]

earn the royalties and let us keep the money.

 

[00:19:38.410]

I think that's part of the story as well.

 

[00:19:42.147]

If we go to slide 19, commodities, and

 

[00:19:46.084]

I'm not talking about the actual commodities, not the stocks,

 

[00:19:51.356]

they are powerful diversifiers.

 

[00:19:53.892]

They don't always work.

 

[00:19:56.495]

Over the very, very long time they are not a great diversifier

 

[00:20:00.899]

because they earn the inflation rate but they're very

 

[00:20:04.870]

volatile so the Sharpe ratios are not that good, but when they

 

[00:20:08.874]

work they work well. In this chart I'm showing the 50-day correlation

 

[00:20:13.679]

over time during the Iran episode here.

 

[00:20:17.916]

On the vertical axis is the correlation to the S&P, on the horizontal

 

[00:20:21.987]

axis from left to right is the correlation to bonds.

 

[00:20:26.458]

You can see on the right are all the bond type asset classes, at the top

 

[00:20:30.529]

are the equity asset classes, in the middle in that yellow oval are

 

[00:20:34.600]

the diversifiers, managed futures, the US dollar,

 

[00:20:39.871]

gold, Bitcoin, et cetera.

 

[00:20:42.708]

The BCOM, which is the Bloomberg Commodity Index, is towards the lower left.

 

[00:20:47.212]

It's interesting that the BCOM is over time becoming

 

[00:20:51.183]

more and more negatively correlated to

 

[00:20:55.387]

both stocks and bonds.

 

[00:20:57.422]

Now, to me, that's the holy grail because bonds

 

[00:21:01.627]

are just as likely to cause trouble, I think, in the next five years than

 

[00:21:05.864]

equities might so you want stuff that is uncorrelated to

 

[00:21:10.135]

both of those. There are not many assets that do that but commodities

 

[00:21:14.106]

is one of them.

 

[00:21:15.073]

Let's go to Bitcoin because Bitcoin's had a very interesting and hard to read,

 

[00:21:18.844]

in some ways, story over the last, well, maybe forever.

 

[00:21:22.781]

More recently it was all about, oh, yeah, going into a second

 

[00:21:26.752]

winter, for sure.

 

[00:21:29.121]

Take us through the rationale of how that could be true but it might also not

 

[00:21:32.557]

be. You have some interesting work here.

 

[00:21:35.394]

Let's start with slide 20.

 

[00:21:38.063]

Bitcoin is really fascinating right now.

 

[00:21:42.334]

This is my 60/20/20, just a model portfolio on the top.

 

[00:21:46.972]

You've got these [audio cuts out] curves at the bottom and you can see that the

 

[00:21:50.842]

big outlier is Bitcoin going from really bad to less bad.

 

[00:21:55.247]

Again, as I said earlier, that's when you want to pay attention.

 

[00:22:00.152]

If we go to slide 23,

 

[00:22:04.856]

this is my Bitcoin chart that shows the power law curve at the

 

[00:22:08.960]

top. The Bitcoin maxis will tell you you

 

[00:22:12.931]

buy, you never sell, diamond hands, blah, blah.

 

[00:22:16.668]

I'm an asset allocator, if we could pull up slide 22

 

[00:22:21.006]

for a second, different assets

 

[00:22:25.410]

have different values at different times, why would I treat Bitcoin

 

[00:22:29.648]

any different than I would any other asset?

 

[00:22:32.551]

For me, this is the menu.

 

[00:22:34.419]

I like to cook, as you know, I like a big menu with things to choose from.

 

[00:22:38.957]

Commodities are on the top right now, Bitcoin is at the bottom,

 

[00:22:43.095]

everything else is in between.

 

[00:22:47.065]

We go back to slide 23 here, Bitcoin peaked at 126,000.

 

[00:22:51.903]

It went to 60,000 very briefly for a second and it

 

[00:22:56.441]

kind of was trading around 65, 70.

 

[00:22:58.610]

It's now in the higher 70s.

 

[00:23:01.880]

To me, that could very well have completed a

 

[00:23:06.952]

mild winter, let me put it that way. Previous winters would take it down

 

[00:23:10.989]

80%, 90%, but as Bitcoin becomes more mature,

 

[00:23:15.394]

as that curve in the top starts to flatten,

 

[00:23:19.431]

the rally should become less pronounced and so should the winters.

 

[00:23:24.236]

When I look at the bottom panel, the deep trended spread between

 

[00:23:28.273]

gold, and because I do think they are like-minded assets

 

[00:23:32.377]

that kind of take turns, just like gold and silver might take turns, we're

 

[00:23:37.215]

at sort of the point where in the past

 

[00:23:42.053]

Bitcoin would bottom relative to gold.

 

[00:23:44.790]

At the same time you look at the detrended spread, or just the

 

[00:23:48.894]

spread between that power law curve, and Bitcoin's

 

[00:23:53.198]

price it shows the exact same signal.

 

[00:23:56.735]

Whether I'm premature or whether it goes to 55 or sits

 

[00:24:00.672]

around for six months before it goes up, doesn't really matter.

 

[00:24:04.142]

This is a long term asset not a trading asset.

 

[00:24:07.312]

To me this is a good area and I could see easily Bitcoin

 

[00:24:11.483]

sort of taking some of the oomph out of gold here

 

[00:24:15.520]

for a while because gold

 

[00:24:19.758]

had a very big run as well.

 

[00:24:22.727]

If another wave does come into play like the last five waves,

 

[00:24:26.898]

again, if we could pull it up just one second more, you can see that

 

[00:24:31.403]

obviously you go from lower left to upper right so that is an uptrend, but

 

[00:24:35.440]

within that you have very clear up and down cycles.

 

[00:24:39.411]

If we are finishing another down cycle, based on the math of

 

[00:24:43.482]

those other waves my math shows we could go to

 

[00:24:47.586]

300,000 from 60,000.

 

[00:24:49.521]

That's worth playing for.

 

[00:24:52.090]

In the meantime, slide 25, there's a daily

 

[00:24:56.161]

chart here that shows that Bitcoin is

 

[00:25:01.032]

forming what looks to be a bear flag, which would be bearish, that

 

[00:25:05.403]

would not confirm what I just said.

 

[00:25:08.139]

It should start to fall here.

 

[00:25:10.408]

If it doesn't, if it breaks up above this bear flag then it's not a

 

[00:25:14.412]

bear flag, then it's a new bull market.

 

[00:25:16.715]

That's what I'm looking for in sort of the high frequency terms right now.

 

[00:25:20.852]

That's fascinating. Within the story of the secular bull market

 

[00:25:24.990]

for equities it sounds like ...

 

[00:25:28.326]

we've obviously had these rotations within and there's been turnover and

 

[00:25:32.397]

different things that are going on right now in a role for commodity producers

 

[00:25:37.002]

perhaps within that, what are you looking to for earnings this week

 

[00:25:41.072]

and maybe more of the outlook story to confirm either

 

[00:25:45.243]

where we are in the secular bull market, how much strength it has?

 

[00:25:49.347]

Tell us how you're looking at earnings to fit into the story of the secular

 

[00:25:52.350]

bull market.

 

[00:25:54.753]

There's the earnings part and then there's the valuation part.

 

[00:25:58.757]

Price is at the intersection of the two.

 

[00:26:00.825]

Maybe we could pull up slide 11 here.

 

[00:26:04.729]

Price is just at the intersect of those two.

 

[00:26:08.099]

We know that earnings are growing very fast.

 

[00:26:11.403]

They're up, I think, 17% year-over-year.

 

[00:26:16.207]

The 5-year growth rate is about 14%.

 

[00:26:20.211]

The estimates for the coming years are also in

 

[00:26:24.549]

the solid double digits.

 

[00:26:27.252]

We have a productivity story going on with AI.

 

[00:26:29.955]

We have the expensing story from the OBBBA.

 

[00:26:33.892]

We have the commodity story globally.

 

[00:26:37.062]

There's a lot of good things going on.

 

[00:26:38.930]

The question is what are we paying for those earnings?

 

[00:26:43.168]

Remember, again, the Iran episode, assuming for a moment it's

 

[00:26:47.939]

cresting but we don't know that in real time, the

 

[00:26:51.943]

valuation drawdown was 19%, the price drawdown was 10%.

 

[00:26:56.781]

If earnings hadn't been growing at double digits it would have been potentially

 

[00:27:00.819]

a 20% decline like we saw a year ago.

 

[00:27:03.355]

That would have gotten people a lot more nervous.

 

[00:27:06.992]

Valuations are still 10% below their peaks so that's

 

[00:27:11.396]

a good story. Then the question is, again, over the long term how

 

[00:27:15.333]

much is too much to pay for earnings?

 

[00:27:18.503]

We look at the CAPE ratio it's 40, it's at nosebleed levels.

 

[00:27:23.341]

The trailing P/E is in the 20s, a lot of people will still find

 

[00:27:27.612]

fault with that.

 

[00:27:29.581]

I look at the risk premium, the equity risk premium through a

 

[00:27:33.652]

discounted cash flow model and the risk premium is shown in the bottom

 

[00:27:37.756]

panel, the blue bars.

 

[00:27:40.058]

When you regress that risk premium for where

 

[00:27:44.195]

credit spreads are, which is near all-time lows, and where margins

 

[00:27:48.500]

are, which is at all-time highs at 15 1/2%,

 

[00:27:54.272]

the risk premium should be 4%, which is more or less where it is.

 

[00:27:58.843]

It's a good reminder that the market's not stupid.

 

[00:28:01.713]

It's pretty efficient, wisdom of the crowds.

 

[00:28:05.116]

Back in 2000 we had a real bubble where

 

[00:28:09.087]

the market ignored all the fundamentals but we

 

[00:28:13.158]

don't have that today.

 

[00:28:15.627]

For now I think we're in good shape but, again, in a couple of years

 

[00:28:19.731]

if we find out that companies way overspent on data

 

[00:28:23.668]

centres, what have you, maybe that'll be a different story but

 

[00:28:27.605]

right now there's strong momentum.

 

[00:28:30.341]

Would you have a final comment for market participants, they're

 

[00:28:35.580]

going to watch Chairman Powell's maybe last meeting, we don't know,

 

[00:28:39.884]

but just sort of thoughts on the changing of the guard there.

 

[00:28:44.522]

I think Powell, they made some

 

[00:28:48.593]

mistakes, most notably staying too accommodative in 2021

 

[00:28:53.832]

when we obviously were in the post-COVID era.

 

[00:28:56.000]

There was massive fiscal stimulus going on and the Fed looked

 

[00:29:00.238]

at policy entirely as a supply shock and

 

[00:29:04.776]

not appreciating that the fiscal impulse would create

 

[00:29:08.713]

a demand shock, a positive demand shock.

 

[00:29:11.850]

His record is not perfect but I think he's an honourable, upstanding

 

[00:29:16.221]

civil servant who did his best.

 

[00:29:18.289]

We'll see what Warsh does.

 

[00:29:22.160]

Warsh has a lot of ideas. He thinks the Fed should be

 

[00:29:26.331]

run differently, I'm sure he will try.

 

[00:29:29.100]

He's not a believer in the dot plot and all that transparency.

 

[00:29:32.604]

We'll see what he does. Market conditions have a tendency

 

[00:29:36.741]

to force themselves on even the most

 

[00:29:40.979]

resolute or ideological administrators.

 

[00:29:45.850]

We'll see if Warsh can actually shape the Fed in

 

[00:29:49.821]

his image or whether the

 

[00:29:53.925]

market will just force him to go down the same path as Bernanke, Yellen

 

[00:29:57.962]

and Powell.

 

[00:29:58.963]

Yeah, maybe a little bit of both, we'll see.

 

[00:30:01.633]

Jurrien Timmer, wonderful to have you share your research with us, it

 

[00:30:05.837]

helps so much to set up the week. I hope you have a great week.

 

[00:30:09.140]

Thank you very much. You too.

 

[00:30:10.542]

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