FidelityConnects: Global Asset Allocation: Positioning for 2026

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Hello and welcome to Fidelity Connects, I'm Pamela Richie.

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It is only the sixth day of 2026 and markets

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are already giving us plenty to unpack.

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Fidelity's global asset allocation team is watching closely

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to see how headlines unfold and ultimately the market

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reaction to them.

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So which themes are top of mind with our next guest and

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what's driving his optimism around Canada?

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Joining us here today to share some of the latest insights

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from the GAA team is portfolio manager David

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Tull. Well, welcome to you, David.

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Happy New Year to you.

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Happy New Year to you. It's great to be here.

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Delighted to have you join us and we'll invite everyone to

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join us in either official language live French audio

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interpretation is available for you as well

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Let's begin with the state of

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affairs. There are lots of words to describe it But one

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of them is sort of regime change new world order

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In a word, is it changing how you

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invest?

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No, it doesn't. Fundamentally, we're still doing our

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process. We're still really focusing on diversification.

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We're finding lots of opportunities around the world,

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trying to play a lot of these macro themes.

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And I think as we start the year, I mean, I think the setup

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is pretty good. So we had a good year last year.

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It's been a couple of years, especially for the 60-40

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portfolio construct, a really strong returns.

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And that is given largely through equities, but bonds

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have also done reasonably well in the last year or so.

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So. I think it's just one of those years that it starts

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good, but I know there's lots of little roadblocks and lots

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of little speed bumps that we're going to have to overcome,

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which I know we'll be able to unpack.

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But as it starts right now, I think our primary view on

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the world is fairly optimistic, and we'll do

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our best to try to stick handle around some of the things

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that will inevitably crop up this year.

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Last year, ahead of the move,

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really, you were making sure that you were allocated

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internationally.

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At the very beginning of last year, that was a

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head-scratcher for many, or not what you were doing, but

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just it wasn't something on people's playlists at that

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point. It worked out incredibly well.

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Is that an area that you'll look at as strongly this year?

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Yeah, I think it's a trend that will start to become better

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appreciated, especially among U.S.

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Investors. So that was really one of the big surprises last

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year and was one of really large portfolio shifts that we've

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talked about before, is that we started last year with a

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pretty hefty overweight to the U.

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S. And to the US dollar, and as the early part of last year

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unfolded, it became very obvious to us that that wasn't the

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right positioning. So we made some pretty significant

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strides to move to being underweight the U S dollar and

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also underweight U S equities.

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Than I think. As we start this year, I mean, that was

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clearly the right move to make last year.

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But as we start this year I think that that again, that

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trend could certainly continue because I think a lot of the

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things that are happening under the surface continue to be

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U.S. Dollar negative.

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And I think as that theme starts to become better understood

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in the market, you might also see other

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investors try to position for that.

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And that could be an extension of.

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The type of move that we have seen in the currency because,

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you know, the US dollar is a longer term sort of cyclically

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driven currency and these long trends, they can

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last five, 10 years.

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So I think we're still in the early stages of that.

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And again, a lot of that's catalysed by what we're seeing

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out of the US administration and a lot of the stuff that

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we're seen outside of the U.S. As well.

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When we think of the word broadening and a broadening trade,

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do you think that should be extended to an

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international trade? Because often we'll talk about sort of

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the other 493 and so on, but a broadning trade

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means what?

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Yeah, I mean, there's definitely the narrow definition of

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broadening, which is self-evident of a contradiction.

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But you think of it as in terms of just within the United

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States, where it's obviously been led very much by

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AI-focused companies and growth more generally.

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That broadens into value and small cap, and we

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can unpack that certainly. But I think the way that we've

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thought primarily about broadening is largely outside

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from the US to the rest of the world.

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So again, the positioning tilts that we have

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is still to be. You know, modestly underweight the United

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States, seeing more opportunity in Europe and Asia and

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emerging markets, and as you mentioned in the intro, looking

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more favourably towards Canada as well.

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So let's sort of insert the discussion of interest rates

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into a dollar story, lots of other

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things as well, because it appears, and I think you have

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commented, or others have certainly have commented on the

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fact that if we go back to which country or

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region is in which part of the cycle, the US is in quite

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a different point, and Canada, for instance, really

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got going quickly on cutting rates, and now

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here we are, it appears to be at the end of the rate cutting

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cycle.

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How does that bode for investing?

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No, absolutely. So I think in the United States, I mean,

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this is also something that really keys back to the dollar

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story, too. So, you know, you've seen the Federal Reserve

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cut a couple of times, and their policy rate, it's

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fairly close to what I would say is generally neutral.

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And I think it's consistent with what the

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wider economy is suggesting they can do.

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So they could cut a couple more times.

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But generally speaking, they're in the right neighbourhood.

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But I think the key risk that will unfold, and this year

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is especially relevant, is that you're going to get a new

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Fed chair. And we're going through the

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candidates right now and there's a lot of jockeying taking

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place both on Twitter and behind the scenes.

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But, you know.

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It's like a presidential run for something, it's going on

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forever.

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Yeah, no, but we've been given some notion that

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there should be a decision that's made in the next couple of

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weeks or fairly early in the year.

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So what we'll end up seeing, I think, is then, again,

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the risk that... Monetary policy isn't being set

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exclusively for economic reasons, but there's now enough

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political overlay.

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Because as we've heard from the administration, there's a

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very clear desire to see lower interest rates, regardless of

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what's going on in the economy.

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So if the successful candidate for the Fed chair

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is sympathetic to that narrative, then again, you start

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to see interest rate cuts that, again, are

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largely driven by political considerations.

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And then that has a very clearly implication for

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the direction in the currency. Not only is it

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raising fears of a lack of central bank independence,

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which again is sacrosanct to a well-functioning currency,

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but also again just speaks to that interest rate

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differential that's beginning to shift further away

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from the US dollar.

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And then that brings us to Canada, where as you mentioned,

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the Canadian rate cut story, I think that's more or less

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done unless something really goes wrong with the economy.

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So if you actually look at the way the market is priced

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today, there's some probability the next move by

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the Bank of Canada will be a hike.

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And part of that was catalysed on a really strong GDP

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report. But again, when you look at where things sit,

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Canada moved early and moved by a lot.

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And now we're kind of working our way through a lot of the

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reasons why the Bank of Canada cut.

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So if the economy continues to remain on track...

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At some point, you can imagine that that would then

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necessitate the Bank of Canada to potentially take some of

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that stimulus away.

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Again, not tomorrow, not even in the first half of this

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year, most likely. But at some point it does serve as a

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reminder that central banks are inevitably cyclical.

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And at some you're going to start to see the other side of

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that. And that's one of the things that I think maybe not a

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2026 story globally, but as a forward-looking

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investor, you just have to keep that in the back of your

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mind and not be too conditioned to just think of that

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central bank's move in one way and cuts to cut interest

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rates.

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And if that is later in the year, we think

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that might jive with towards the end of

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a trade talks, NAFTA, lots of different words for

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it, is being renegotiated.

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We know that we're kind of entering that right now.

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And probably some geopolitical moves will

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come to bear in those talks.

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We don't know to what extent. But I guess just tell

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us a little bit about the idea of...

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Whether free trade as we know it, I think a lot of people

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think that's over, what might it be replaced

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with just at this point, or what are some of your working

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models?

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Yeah, I think in this sense, when we look at Canada

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and the negotiations around NAFTA, that could be one of

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those really big stumbling blocks that we encounter this

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year. So this is the year for the formal renegotiation

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of that agreement. Obviously, there's been a lot of stuff

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that's happened behind the scenes, and there's a lot tariff

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applications and then removals and a lot sort of sabre

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rattling on that that I think we're we've we've been

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unfortunately accustomed to at this stage, but this is

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really the year where a lot of that comes out.

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And I think what at minimum we will need to brace for a fair

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bit of volatility just reopening that trade

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debate that we thought that might have been sort of pushed

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to the side as the US was focused on other

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countries. But it is unfortunately Canada's turn and

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Mexico's turn as well in the spotlight this year.

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So that's something that we'll have to be watching very

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carefully and try to figure out where the.

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The rules end up landing and I think ultimately

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what you really want from a Canadian perspective is just

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clarity. So whether it's tariffs of this or tariffs

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of that on this industry or that industry, whatever it ends

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up being, it just needs to be written down and put into

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place because that to me really addresses the key source

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of uncertainty and that's the hardest thing for corporations

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or businesses to really operate in as a world of uncertainty

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when you're trying to make investment decisions and hiring

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decisions when you don't know with the...

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Rules of the game are when it comes to trade.

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But then if you think about the US and globalisation more

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generally, and this is another important part to think

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about, is that I don't think we're going back to a

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globalised world.

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And that is something that, again, we've seen in bits and

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pieces in recent years. And it really comes down to the

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notion of how the US administration views as tax

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policy. Because if you remember, a tariff is just one

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form of a tax. So it can be used in

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conjunction with you know, household taxes,

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corporate taxes, but really it's part of the mix, and it

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seems...
It's good to remember it that way, it's one of the tax

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leavers.

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Exactly, and the desire for this administration is to

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primarily use that tariff lever to raise revenue,

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and they've raised a fair bit of revenue, to then fund other

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tax cuts more domestically.

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And that's kind of consistent with that sort of America

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First policy that we've seen recently.

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<b>else you get your podcasts. Now back to today's show.</b>

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Do you think that it also, I mean, as we move to a

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less globalised world, one of the questions that is

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being asked is what either new trade deals

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or relationships or even, you know, country ownership

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of pieces of companies looks

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like? I mean we've seen a few examples of it.

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It clearly is something that the Trump administration is

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okay with, at least, in some cases.

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From an investor's perspective, is there anything to

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think about that? Is it in some way dilutive?

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Does it change the policy of a company itself because

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new people are owning it?

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How do you look at that?

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When it comes to the individual companies, this is where,

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again, we really rely on our building block managers who are

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doing the security selection and trying to navigate a lot of

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those risks as they apply to individual countries.

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But if you take a step back, or companies, I should say, and

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if you took a step and look at the country and the regional

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allocations, again it's just something that you really think

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of as reinforcing the desire for diversification.

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So you don't want to have all of your eggs in one basket,

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because ultimately you can get these policy decisions that

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can really cause a great deal of stress that aren't

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entirely predictable.

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And when we think about how we've allocated accordingly,

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again, we're trying to get that diversification across

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regions. We also appreciate that there can be more

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regional stories that we can try to invest in.

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So when the world was very globalised and moved in sort of

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one synchronous cycle, it's kind of hard to distinguish

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between regions because they all kind of move together.

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But now if you've got more fractures between countries,

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you can have a Europe idiosyncratic story that you can

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invest in. You can have something that's unique to emerging

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markets or different subparts of that emerging market

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basket. In that as an acid allocator.

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Is a lot of fun because you can find these stories that can

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trade differently than what would be the case if you're just

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following one global cycle.

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If you're able to follow international

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cycles, not one global cycle, spread out a bit,

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broaden a bit.

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What does it mean to the fears, perhaps from your

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perspective, another investor's perspective, about the AI

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bubble bursting, whether it is a bubble where there isn't?

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If you are not so concentrated in some

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of the big names, or maybe even some of the secondary

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names, because you can be more global about it, does that

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spread out that risk?

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I mean, it does to some extent, but I think ultimately that

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is really an important theme that we'll also see unfold

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this year. And it's not calendar year specific per se,

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but as this investment takes place within AI,

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ultimately you need to find the use case to try to monetize

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a lot of this. Because as we've talked about in the past,

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we've... Spent a tonne of money on CapEx.

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And when we talk to our analysts, and they're closer to

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these companies than I ever will be, they speak to

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that spending as being motivated by competition

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among the companies, and still justified economically and

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financially, but at some point, the longer this runs, you're

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gonna need to see that monetization take place.

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So it's something that we're watching.

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We've invested within the US, specifically around

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that theme. And ultimately there, we're really relying on

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those managers and those analysts that I spoke about,

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they're the ones that are going to give us a signal.

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In terms of saying, well, this has run too far, or this has

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potentially further to run.

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And that's something that we will take and could potentially

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be a catalyst for a pretty sizable change in our

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positioning, just because it is a really important theme

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that we'll really define this year, and we want to be able

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to be on top of it, literally every day.

14:04.400 --> 14:07.400
Are you more exposed to it or are more interested

14:07.400 --> 14:10.680
in it? You'll find the right word for this, but the energy,

14:10.680 --> 14:13.920
the sort of picks and shovels, the data centre, build out

14:13.920 --> 14:17.000
beyond the technology companies that are

14:17.000 --> 14:19.320
leading the way, and they're also some of the word data

14:19.320 --> 14:22.360
centre owners as well, but what piece of

14:22.360 --> 14:25.840
it are you most interested in, most exposed to?

14:25.840 --> 14:28.680
Yeah, at this point again, it's largely down to our managers

14:28.680 --> 14:31.720
who look at the entire sort of universe of AI plays

14:31.720 --> 14:35.160
either directly or tangentially or every combination

14:35.160 --> 14:37.440
thereof. And they're the ones that will pivot their

14:37.440 --> 14:40.160
individual portfolios accordingly.

14:40.160 --> 14:42.840
So using global innovators and listening very carefully to

14:42.840 --> 14:45.280
what Mark Schmelle is saying and what he sees and where his

14:45.280 --> 14:48.440
opportunities are. So that does, again, two things for

14:48.440 --> 14:49.960
us. First, it gives us.

14:50.000 --> 14:52.240
All the security selection he's able to bring into the

14:52.240 --> 14:55.040
portfolio, but also it's a signal to us to say that, okay,

14:55.080 --> 14:57.280
something's changing here, that we need to maybe make a

14:57.320 --> 15:00.360
larger broader tilt either out of those

15:00.400 --> 15:02.040
plays or out of the U.S.

15:02.080 --> 15:04.600
Or anywhere else. And we'll see how that unfolds, but that's

15:04.600 --> 15:05.760
what we're trying to balance today.

15:05.760 --> 15:08.560
I mean, one of the things I think he says, actually, is

15:08.560 --> 15:09.560
energy.

15:10.320 --> 15:13.760
And over the weekend, because the US has gone into Venezuela

15:13.800 --> 15:16.280
in the way it has, one of the questions is there will be

15:16.320 --> 15:19.240
more energy on the market for North America, at least, and

15:19.280 --> 15:20.280
maybe beyond that.

15:21.400 --> 15:23.640
But the other argument is we're going to need it no matter

15:23.680 --> 15:26.920
what. How do you parse through that piece of the discussion?

15:26.960 --> 15:29.040
Yeah, I mean, this is the debate that a lot of people are

15:29.080 --> 15:32.520
having right now, that if you do bring Venezuelan crude oil

15:32.560 --> 15:34.840
into market over the next little while, then there's no

15:34.880 --> 15:36.400
guarantee that's going to happen tomorrow.

15:36.440 --> 15:39.160
There's a lot infrastructure that needs to take place and a

15:39.200 --> 15:41.280
fair bit of money that will need to be spent and that won't

15:41.280 --> 15:44.280
happen instantly. But it does raise the concern, is this a

15:44.320 --> 15:45.760
direct competitor to...

15:45.760 --> 15:47.640
You know, Canadian crude oil given that there are similar

15:47.640 --> 15:50.680
grades. And we spent a fair bit of time

15:50.680 --> 15:52.240
thinking about that as well.

15:52.240 --> 15:54.440
And I think the first observation to make is that, again, if

15:54.440 --> 15:56.560
the global economy holds up this year, there will be a lot

15:56.560 --> 15:58.320
of demand for energy.

15:58.320 --> 16:02.120
And that will be beneficial both to newfound

16:02.120 --> 16:05.200
Venezuelan capacity but also existing Canadian capacity

16:05.200 --> 16:08.080
and also with the AI trend, as long as that's still

16:08.080 --> 16:10.720
happening in the background and can be positive for

16:10.720 --> 16:13.040
commodity prices, because we really haven't seen oil prices

16:13.040 --> 16:15.280
respond in the same way as we've seen other commodities.

16:15.280 --> 16:18.400
So. There is some at least historical evidence to suggest

16:18.400 --> 16:20.520
that oil could potentially catch up.

16:20.520 --> 16:22.760
So, you know, tangentially that's one of the reasons why

16:22.760 --> 16:25.000
we're a little bit more optimistic on Canada.

16:25.000 --> 16:27.360
But also when you just think about that competition between

16:27.360 --> 16:30.320
different countries when it comes to providing crude, a lot

16:30.320 --> 16:34.200
of the structure there that is kind of nuanced,

16:34.200 --> 16:37.560
but Venezuela can do a lot to access Gulf Coast refineries,

16:37.560 --> 16:40.280
but a lot the refinerries in the Midwest are still very much

16:40.280 --> 16:42.200
linked by pipeline into Canada.

16:42.200 --> 16:42.560
So there are.

16:42.560 --> 16:43.400
Which is where we're selling.

16:43.440 --> 16:45.640
Exactly. So there's a little bit of a distinction there.

16:45.640 --> 16:48.480
But it also, again, serves as another reminder that Canada,

16:48.520 --> 16:49.800
you know, we can't rely on the U.S.

16:49.840 --> 16:52.200
To anywhere the same degree as we would have in the past.

16:52.200 --> 16:55.120
So if there's an additional catalyst to build pipelines to

16:55.160 --> 16:58.360
tidewater on the West Coast and to think about alternative

16:58.400 --> 17:01.000
trading partners as well, not just within crude but more

17:01.000 --> 17:03.560
generally, this was another really clear example of saying,

17:03.600 --> 17:05.840
well, you know you need to think a little more holistically

17:05.880 --> 17:07.560
about how you trade with the world.

17:07.560 --> 17:10.600
And steadily reduce your reliance on the U.S., and

17:10.600 --> 17:13.160
we had a federal budget late last year that helped to sort

17:13.160 --> 17:15.600
of at least catalyse some of those priorities.

17:15.600 --> 17:18.120
And again, this will take time, but when you look at the

17:18.120 --> 17:21.080
delta and the rate of change, it is starting to move in the

17:21.080 --> 17:23.880
right direction, and that's another reason why we want to

17:23.880 --> 17:26.960
look more carefully at Canada as a way to play that

17:26.960 --> 17:28.320
as an investment thesis.

17:28.360 --> 17:31.560
Come back to the type of horizon you're looking at Canada

17:31.560 --> 17:32.560
with.

17:32.960 --> 17:36.080
At the end of last year, you and your colleagues at GAA

17:36.120 --> 17:39.320
will have said a little bit of a darkest before

17:39.360 --> 17:40.920
the dawn type feel to that.

17:40.960 --> 17:42.880
Are we any closer to the dawn?

17:42.880 --> 17:43.800
How do you want to describe that?

17:43.800 --> 17:46.720
Yeah, unfortunately, this sunrise is measured in quarters in

17:46.720 --> 17:48.280
years as opposed to minutes in seconds.

17:48.280 --> 17:48.960
It's January, it is.

17:48.960 --> 17:50.520
It's January. It's a little dark. Yeah, exactly.

17:50.520 --> 17:50.800
We're waiting for... Yeah, exactly.

17:50.800 --> 17:53.000
We're waiting for that leap shift from daily savings to

17:53.000 --> 17:55.080
maybe change things, but no. Just the end of January.

17:55.080 --> 17:57.160
Exactly. But no, but more realistically, I mean, this is

17:57.160 --> 18:00.000
taking place. And it's just taking place very gradually.

18:00.000 --> 18:03.080
But we also know that markets don't wait for

18:03.080 --> 18:05.200
evidence to be sort of presented to them.

18:05.200 --> 18:08.360
So markets are investing on the theme of progress and

18:08.360 --> 18:11.320
on the team of improvement. And we've seen the TSX perform

18:11.320 --> 18:13.240
pretty remarkably well over the last year.

18:13.240 --> 18:14.400
It's astonishing. As long as.

18:14.400 --> 18:16.200
As long as that can kind of continue, as long as you're

18:16.200 --> 18:18.640
seeing the policy infrastructure moving at the pace that it

18:18.640 --> 18:21.640
will, and corporations responding to that, but

18:21.640 --> 18:24.400
also seeing opportunities in their own right, now that is

18:24.400 --> 18:27.320
beginning to shift. And I see no reason for that, at least

18:27.360 --> 18:29.480
from a policy perspective, to change.

18:29.480 --> 18:32.600
So the market will inevitably respond to that theme as

18:32.640 --> 18:35.200
well, and obviously still beholden to global developments,

18:35.200 --> 18:37.280
and this goes back to the notion that the setup for this

18:37.280 --> 18:38.760
year is good, but not without risk.

18:38.800 --> 18:41.800
But there still is, you know, reason to think under the

18:41.800 --> 18:44.000
surface that... That these trends are moving in the right

18:44.040 --> 18:46.840
direction and we as investors want to be part of that.

18:46.840 --> 18:49.920
Biggest risk is whether AI is or is not

18:49.920 --> 18:52.760
a bubble or at least, yeah, is that the biggest risk?

18:52.800 --> 18:55.200
It's up there. It's hard to make a rank order of these.

18:55.240 --> 18:58.360
We've got central bank independence, we've got the

18:58.360 --> 19:00.840
Monroe Doctrine reasserting itself in the United States as

19:00.880 --> 19:02.560
well. So there's a lot of things that can still go bump in

19:02.560 --> 19:03.960
the night, to quote Jeff Moore.

19:05.240 --> 19:08.000
But ultimately, I think when you want to look at the way the

19:08.000 --> 19:10.320
world is set up, again, the economy is a really important

19:10.320 --> 19:12.440
part of it, and the economy is okay.

19:12.440 --> 19:14.640
So now we're now trying to chase down these various policy

19:14.640 --> 19:18.120
risks and wondering, first, are they likely to be realised,

19:18.120 --> 19:21.480
and second, is the knock-on effect significant enough to

19:21.480 --> 19:24.560
not only impact just the market, but could it also then

19:24.560 --> 19:26.160
spill into the economy more generally?

19:26.160 --> 19:29.080
And as we assess those risks over the course of the year,

19:29.080 --> 19:32.080
that will be the catalyst for us to evolve our positioning.

19:33.520 --> 19:36.680
Speaking of Jeff Moore, tell us

19:36.720 --> 19:39.440
a little bit about asset allocation in terms of your

19:39.480 --> 19:42.480
exposure to equity and what about bonds just to make

19:42.520 --> 19:44.120
sure that you're covered?

19:44.120 --> 19:46.600
Yeah, we can't forget about bonds at all.

19:46.600 --> 19:49.720
So I mean, really, our positioning hasn't changed very

19:49.720 --> 19:52.920
much relative to the latter part of

19:52.920 --> 19:56.040
last year. So really, there's just two main views that

19:56.040 --> 19:58.400
we're trying to express. The first is being overweight beta

19:58.400 --> 20:01.680
and overweight equities. Again, the economic backdrop is

20:01.680 --> 20:04.840
sufficiently benign. We are very, again, tied into that

20:04.840 --> 20:07.880
AI theme and working with managers to help, again

20:07.880 --> 20:09.440
calibrate that position accordingly.

20:09.440 --> 20:11.440
But Generally speaking, we're overweight risk.

20:11.480 --> 20:14.160
So we have that position overweight to equities and

20:14.160 --> 20:17.680
underweight bonds by association.

20:17.680 --> 20:20.360
And then the second theme is just being underweight US

20:20.400 --> 20:23.440
dollars and expecting that US dollar to continue to

20:23.480 --> 20:26.360
depreciate. And we have some of that, again, expressed

20:26.360 --> 20:27.920
explicitly across currencies.

20:27.920 --> 20:30.920
But I think one of the cleanest ways to play a weaker US

20:30.960 --> 20:34.240
dollar story is just an overweight or an allocation to gold.

20:34.280 --> 20:36.160
And we've had a fairly hefty allocation there.

20:36.200 --> 20:38.440
It's remained consistent through time.

20:38.440 --> 20:41.040
And that's just the cleanest way for us, again, to play the

20:41.040 --> 20:43.560
risk that we still see the US dollar moving lower.

20:43.560 --> 20:45.600
Not necessarily in a straight line, these things always have

20:45.600 --> 20:48.720
volatility, but as a balance of risk, I think you still

20:48.720 --> 20:51.880
see less dollarization in the world and

20:51.880 --> 20:55.160
a push more towards alternative currencies like gold in

20:55.160 --> 20:56.040
that context.

20:56.040 --> 20:59.560
And so you'll use the incredible portfolio

20:59.560 --> 21:02.960
managers that are at your discretion

21:02.960 --> 21:05.600
here at Fidelity. But you overlay with things like

21:05.600 --> 21:10.360
commodities. You'll also take a look at inflation-protected

21:10.360 --> 21:13.200
bonds, where that's needed.

21:13.200 --> 21:15.320
So this is the actual commodity gold.

21:15.320 --> 21:18.560
You take a lot at, I guess, gold miners through various

21:18.560 --> 21:20.760
portfolio managers. Yeah. So the underlying managers.

21:20.760 --> 21:20.840
Thank you so much. Have a great day.

21:20.840 --> 21:22.320
Yeah, so the underlying managers can make the call on the
miners

21:22.320 --> 21:25.400
themselves, but from our pure plate position, it's easiest

21:25.440 --> 21:28.480
just to own the bullion, which we do in an ETF form.

21:28.480 --> 21:30.880
Really, really interesting.

21:30.880 --> 21:33.920
It has been astonishing watching the

21:33.920 --> 21:36.080
price of gold do what it's done over the course of the last

21:36.080 --> 21:39.440
year. I guess the question is, going forward, is it

21:39.440 --> 21:41.760
just as likely to do just as well?

21:41.760 --> 21:43.520
For all the reasons that you're pointing out, it sort of

21:43.520 --> 21:45.240
sounds like the same case is there.

21:45.240 --> 21:48.640
Yeah, as an investor when an asset class goes parabolic

21:48.640 --> 21:51.040
like the price of gold has, I mean, it's uncomfortable

21:51.040 --> 21:54.240
because especially with gold because you can't

21:54.280 --> 21:56.400
tie it to sort of those more traditional financial

21:56.400 --> 21:59.920
fundamentals like a balance sheet or

21:59.960 --> 22:01.680
earnings or dividends.

22:01.720 --> 22:03.080
So you have to go into.

22:04.400 --> 22:07.560
You go into a world of at least more nebulous

22:07.600 --> 22:10.360
type of correlations that themselves can be pretty fickle

22:10.400 --> 22:13.160
and volatile because we remember, it wasn't that long ago

22:13.160 --> 22:16.240
that it was a well-established correlation between gold and

22:16.280 --> 22:19.320
real interest rates and then that really broke down and then

22:19.320 --> 22:22.160
it became a correlation between Gold and central bank buying

22:22.160 --> 22:24.240
and I think that's still an important theme.

22:24.240 --> 22:26.760
But if you just look at all those different catalysts that

22:26.800 --> 22:29.920
have driven gold, again, And you just look at the balance of

22:29.920 --> 22:32.720
risk, and is the world going to get better?

22:32.760 --> 22:35.320
More peaceful or potentially more volatile.

22:35.360 --> 22:38.200
And unfortunately we're weighing on the side of it becoming

22:38.200 --> 22:39.800
more volatile and more uncertain.

22:39.840 --> 22:42.200
And that traditionally I think is still a pretty good reason

22:42.200 --> 22:44.360
to have gold as part of a portfolio.

22:44.400 --> 22:47.400
So these things will never go to the moon necessarily, but

22:47.400 --> 22:49.800
ultimately as a diversifier to risk.

22:49.840 --> 22:52.480
Because that's, again, a really important part of why we

22:52.480 --> 22:53.960
have an asset in our portfolios.

22:54.000 --> 22:57.160
It's not just to contribute to return, but it's to diversify

22:57.160 --> 23:00.320
the more traditional benchmark components of

23:00.360 --> 23:02.840
equities and bonds. And that's really why I think.

23:02.880 --> 23:06.000
Gold is an important part of

23:06.000 --> 23:06.920
that mix.

23:06.920 --> 23:10.200
A couple of pieces of developments in

23:10.240 --> 23:13.640
the U.S., so the midterms will be later on this year

23:13.680 --> 23:15.120
and some of your thoughts on that.

23:15.160 --> 23:18.640
Also, the AIPA, which is the Supreme Court,

23:18.680 --> 23:21.320
may be overturning the whole underpinning of U.

23:21.360 --> 23:22.720
S. Tariffs, we don't know yet.

23:23.960 --> 23:26.880
Each of those, you'll watch those how, they're important, I

23:26.880 --> 23:28.920
mean, one of them would be a real mess to have to pay back

23:28.920 --> 23:29.720
the tariffs.

23:29.720 --> 23:32.280
Yeah, that's going to be a logistical nightmare if that

23:32.320 --> 23:35.320
comes to pass. But where we've come down, at

23:35.360 --> 23:38.400
least on that, is that even if AIIPA is ruled to

23:38.400 --> 23:41.080
be unconstitutional, there are enough other tariff

23:41.120 --> 23:43.920
provisions within the executive office that you can more or

23:43.960 --> 23:47.480
less offset all of that with different and new tariffs.

23:47.480 --> 23:49.800
So again, it's a headache for the lawyers and all the

23:49.840 --> 23:52.280
bookkeepers when it comes to putting all that together, but

23:52.280 --> 23:55.240
it doesn't really change the wider narrative that we about

23:55.280 --> 23:58.000
earlier, where the U.S. Is relying heavily on tariffs as a

23:58.040 --> 24:00.840
source of revenue. And one way or another, that will remain

24:00.840 --> 24:04.520
in place. So that's the IEPA story, and the Supreme Court is

24:04.520 --> 24:06.480
resuming its session on Friday of this week.

24:06.480 --> 24:09.200
And I think it's fairly high on their docket list in terms

24:09.200 --> 24:11.120
of what they will be able to rule on.

24:11.120 --> 24:13.600
So we're kind of bracing for obviously volatility around

24:13.600 --> 24:16.560
that. But again, the undercurrent is that there's still

24:16.560 --> 24:19.080
other tariff provisions that will not really change, I

24:19.080 --> 24:22.200
think, how the US will approach tariffs and trade

24:22.200 --> 24:24.360
more generally. And then on the midterms.

24:24.360 --> 24:26.560
Yeah, in the midterms. I mean, what do you want out of that?

24:26.560 --> 24:28.960
Yeah. Usually investors want nothing.

24:28.960 --> 24:32.080
Exactly. No, I mean, it's hard enough to try to forecast the

24:32.080 --> 24:34.800
economy and financial markets to overlay that with politics

24:34.800 --> 24:36.320
is next to impossible.

24:36.320 --> 24:39.440
But I mean you traditionally see the party that

24:39.440 --> 24:42.560
wins the last presidential election loses some ground in

24:42.560 --> 24:44.760
the midterms, at least when it comes to Congress and the

24:44.760 --> 24:48.200
Senate. So we'll see how that unfolds

24:48.200 --> 24:51.720
ultimately. But I think this is also a

24:51.720 --> 24:54.120
administration in the US that has been very much driven by

24:54.120 --> 24:55.600
the executive office. So.

24:55.600 --> 24:58.560
Less has been required of Congress, to put it sort of

24:58.560 --> 25:01.560
cynically. So it may certainly add a little bit

25:01.560 --> 25:04.840
more in terms of political commentary and

25:04.840 --> 25:08.320
a lot of potential, you know, I guess,

25:08.320 --> 25:10.120
yeah, I would leave it as commentary.

25:10.120 --> 25:13.120
And it doesn't necessarily flow through to

25:13.120 --> 25:15.560
the application of policy, which again seems to be very much

25:15.560 --> 25:17.680
concentrated within the White House.

25:17.680 --> 25:21.320
So, leading, possibly, to a version of gridlock,

25:21.320 --> 25:24.120
which just for the purpose of continuing to trade without

25:24.120 --> 25:26.760
too many changes in policy coming along is generally good

25:26.760 --> 25:27.840
for markets. Absolutely. I mean... No, absolutely.

25:27.840 --> 25:30.960
I mean, you want to have at least a direction of policy.

25:30.960 --> 25:33.640
But if that's going to be disruptive and very volatile to

25:33.680 --> 25:36.480
the extent to which Congress is still relevant, gridlock is

25:36.520 --> 25:38.720
maybe not the worst scenario for us today.

25:38.760 --> 25:41.600
You've got a paper coming out from GA, you guys are working

25:41.640 --> 25:44.240
on this, you and Alon and David Wolf.

25:45.480 --> 25:47.240
What are sort of the big pieces of AI?

25:47.280 --> 25:49.600
I think AI is one of them, which we did touch on.

25:49.600 --> 25:50.200
What else?

25:50.240 --> 25:51.840
I mean, that's question number one.

25:51.880 --> 25:55.320
So as always, we start our new year with

25:55.360 --> 25:58.480
questions for advisors that are top of mind for us and that

25:58.480 --> 26:00.400
shape the way that we're viewing the world.

26:00.400 --> 26:03.400
And the first topical question is, AI, is it a bubble?

26:03.440 --> 26:06.160
Because as it touches so many parts of the market and

26:06.200 --> 26:08.480
there's so much attention on it, it really does, I think,

26:08.520 --> 26:11.040
drive the narrative that we expect this year.

26:11.080 --> 26:13.120
And we've touched a little bit on some of the things that we

26:13.160 --> 26:15.360
are looking at and some of the decisions that we've made

26:15.360 --> 26:18.440
around that theme. But also, we're speaking again

26:18.440 --> 26:21.200
about the US dollar and the direction of the risks that are

26:21.200 --> 26:24.240
embedded within that, and that has a knock-on impact

26:24.240 --> 26:27.200
on positioning. And then the third real major theme, and

26:27.200 --> 26:29.320
we've talked about it as well, is just how we're viewing

26:29.320 --> 26:32.120
Canada. So again, that optimism has progressed as time has

26:32.120 --> 26:35.160
gone on. Our allocations have shifted with respect

26:35.160 --> 26:36.760
to how we view Canada.

26:36.760 --> 26:39.040
So we just want to make sure that we are giving everybody

26:39.040 --> 26:41.360
our top-of-mind thinking on that as well.

26:41.360 --> 26:44.360
So that's the genesis of the paper that's

26:44.360 --> 26:45.560
coming out next week, I think.

26:45.600 --> 26:47.280
Coming out next week. Okay, we'll look forward to that.

26:47.320 --> 26:49.960
And you're neutral on Canada, which is quite a big change

26:50.000 --> 26:52.360
from a couple of years ago, where you were deeply underway,

26:52.400 --> 26:52.440
is that Yeah.

26:52.440 --> 26:54.800
Yeah, I mean, at least to the natural question, I mean, when

26:54.800 --> 26:57.440
you start becoming outright overweight.

26:57.440 --> 26:59.200
And again, we just need to see progress.

26:59.200 --> 27:00.680
So we talk about the darkest before dawn.

27:00.680 --> 27:03.440
So we need a few more rays of sunshine poking over the

27:03.440 --> 27:06.640
horizon to really give us that motivation to take a

27:06.640 --> 27:07.800
larger allocation there.

27:07.800 --> 27:09.160
But what's that mean?

27:09.160 --> 27:12.480
Like, just give us a little bit of a hard example there.

27:12.480 --> 27:14.080
Yeah, I think part of it is time.

27:14.120 --> 27:16.240
So honestly, as we're working through the housing market

27:16.280 --> 27:19.600
cycle, that's another real headwind to Canada's economy.

27:19.600 --> 27:22.880
We are getting towards the end of that five-year reset

27:22.880 --> 27:25.400
from very low COVID-level interest rates.

27:25.400 --> 27:28.480
So once we get beyond some of that, I think you'll start

27:28.480 --> 27:30.680
to see a little better position for household balance

27:30.720 --> 27:32.800
sheets, so a little more discretionary spending on that

27:32.840 --> 27:35.480
front. Obviously, the labour market has to hold up fairly

27:35.520 --> 27:37.600
well, and it's done a reasonable job of that.

27:37.640 --> 27:40.280
But we want to be just, again, confident that that's taking

27:40.320 --> 27:43.120
place. And then ultimately it's the tariff story and as

27:43.120 --> 27:44.680
NAFTA is to be negotiated.

27:44.680 --> 27:47.640
You know, where are we left in terms of A, the level of

27:47.640 --> 27:49.880
tariffs, but B, the degree of certainty that now companies

27:49.920 --> 27:53.320
can start to invest and hire based on that

27:53.360 --> 27:55.480
knowledge that they have, a reasonable amount of confidence

27:55.520 --> 27:58.680
that the rules of the game won't be changed after

27:58.720 --> 27:59.400
a tweet.

27:59.400 --> 28:02.600
Yes, less moving of gold

28:02.600 --> 28:04.840
posts would be nice.

28:04.840 --> 28:07.280
For investors, actually, we finished off last year talking a

28:07.280 --> 28:11.000
little bit about investors getting information online,

28:11.000 --> 28:14.480
lots of different places, which is all very, very good.

28:14.480 --> 28:17.280
I wonder if you just have a note as we start off the year

28:17.280 --> 28:20.360
for how investors do collect in a truly

28:20.360 --> 28:23.560
data saturated world, doesn't mean it's all good data.

28:23.560 --> 28:24.720
What would you suggest?

28:24.760 --> 28:26.920
Yeah, I mean, this was sort of driven home over the holidays

28:26.960 --> 28:29.360
where, you know, you spend a lot of time with family and

28:29.360 --> 28:32.280
friends, not all of which are portfolio managers.

28:32.320 --> 28:34.560
So you get a little bit of a sense of where people are

28:34.560 --> 28:37.040
drawing their information as they're asking you questions

28:37.040 --> 28:38.840
about the market and about the world.

28:38.840 --> 28:40.800
And I was just really stunned, and maybe I should have known

28:40.840 --> 28:43.120
better, but, you know, there's so many rabbit holes that

28:43.160 --> 28:45.400
exist out there where people are getting questionable

28:45.400 --> 28:48.160
information from unreliable sources, and that really is

28:48.160 --> 28:49.680
forming people's opinions.

28:49.680 --> 28:52.240
The fact that we're able to do these again and get back to

28:52.240 --> 28:54.320
the cadence of these webcasts, I think is really important

28:54.320 --> 28:57.480
because I think we want to do our best to contribute

28:57.480 --> 29:00.480
more signal versus noise out there in

29:00.480 --> 29:03.360
the world. And this webcast series, I think, is a really

29:03.360 --> 29:04.320
important part of that.

29:04.320 --> 29:07.240
Well, we're delighted to kick off the new year with you,

29:07.240 --> 29:09.000
David Tulk. Thank you and have a happy new year.

29:09.040 --> 29:09.760
You as well. Thank you.

29:09.800 --> 29:10.840
We'll speak to you soon.

29:11.360 --> 29:14.640
<b>Thanks for listening to the</b>

29:14.640 --> 29:16.200
<b>FidelityConnects podcast.</b>

29:16.200 --> 29:19.120
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29:19.120 --> 29:22.040
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29:23.880 --> 29:27.080
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29:27.080 --> 29:29.720
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29:32.800 --> 29:35.880
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29:35.880 --> 29:38.920
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<b>We'll end today's podcast with</b>

29:52.200 --> 29:54.760
<b>a short disclaimer.</b>

29:54.760 --> 29:57.560
<b>The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are</b>

29:57.560 --> 30:00.680
<b>those of the participants, and do not</b>

30:00.680 --> 30:03.200
<b>necessarily reflect the views of Fidelity Investments</b>

30:03.200 --> 30:06.080
<b>Canada ULC, or</b>

30:06.080 --> 30:08.320
<b>any affiliated companies.</b>

30:08.320 --> 30:11.200
<b>This podcast is for</b>

30:11.200 --> 30:14.120
<b>informational purposes only and should</b>

30:14.120 --> 30:17.000
<b>not be construed as investment,</b>

30:17.000 --> 30:19.840
<b>legal, or tax advice.</b>

30:19.840 --> 30:22.720
<b>It is not an offer to</b>

30:22.720 --> 30:25.640
<b>buy or sell or an</b>

30:25.640 --> 30:28.520
<b>endorsement, recommendation, or sponsorship of any</b>

30:28.520 --> 30:30.760
<b>securities or entities cited.</b>

30:30.760 --> 30:33.960
<b>Read a fund's prospectus before</b>

30:33.960 --> 30:37.480
<b>investing. Funds are not guaranteed.</b>

30:37.480 --> 30:40.360
<b>Their values change frequently,</b>

30:40.360 --> 30:43.240
<b>and past performance may or may not</b>

30:43.240 --> 30:44.640
<b>be repeated.</b>

30:44.640 --> 30:47.640
<b>Fees,</b>

30:47.640 --> 30:48.960
<b>expenses, and commissions are all associated with fund</b>

30:48.960 --> 30:50.240
<b>investments.</b>

30:50.240 --> 30:52.200
<b>Thanks for watching and see you next time!</b>