Canada's advantage: Defining our place on the global stage

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<b>Subtitles are AI Generated</b>

 

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Hello and welcome to Fidelity Connects.

 

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I'm Pamela Ritchie. New U.S.

 

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Tariffs are in effect on nearly $30 billion worth of Canadian goods after

 

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trade talks between Ottawa and Washington broke down last week.

 

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Prime Minister Mark Carney says the U.

 

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S. Asked too much and offered too little.

 

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Our next guest says Canada is increasingly playing a game of three-dimensional

 

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chess as it balances relationships with the United States,

 

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China, Europe, and its allies.

 

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While pursuing growth and security at home.

 

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What leverage does Canada really have in a world of economic giants?

 

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Can diversification reduce our dependence on the U.S.?

 

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And where do energy, national security, and global partnerships fit into

 

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Canada's long-term advantage?

 

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Happy to say that joining us here today is Dick Fadden.

 

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He is former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister, former Director

 

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of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

 

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And currently sits as a senior advisor at Capitol Hill Group.

 

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A warm welcome to you, Dick. Thank you so much for joining us.

 

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Pleasure to be back with you.

 

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We're delighted to have a chance to speak with you again.

 

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And I'll just inform everyone joining us and you here today

 

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that we are recording this on the 24th of August.

 

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And we note that other things may happen in between this conversation.

 

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Anyway, we'll just jump right in here.

 

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As it led up to the Friday night deadline, as we all know,

 

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there was not a lot of messaging.

 

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There was sort of panic because we didn't know a whole lot about it.

 

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I'm wondering in your former roles with CSIS and

 

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how you've looked at security, was there an element of

 

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miss and dis information that was interesting to you in the

 

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lead up to that?

 

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Well i don't know to what extent it was consciously missing this but clearly

 

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uh... The two parties were pushing their advantage to the

 

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greatest extent possible and i think possibly they got a bit ahead

 

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of themselves equally it would appear that the u.s.

 

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Commerce secretary arrived you know sort of late and complicated the

 

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management of the file but i think we have to remember we weren't got engaged

 

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in tough and in tough negotiations, people push their own advantage.

 

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So, missing this in practise, but I don't think it was ill-intended.

 

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Yes. Interesting. Yes. As you say, you're trying to push to

 

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play your own book a little bit and make sure that you're getting ultimately

 

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what you need.

 

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When you listen to the discussion of asked too

 

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much, what were the Americans asking for that was too much do you

 

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think on the Trump negotiating team?

 

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I mean, I think we all kind of know, but what tipped the balance there?

 

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I think a couple of things.

 

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One was a request that we do away with some of the

 

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requirements we have in respect to the use of the French language.

 

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We've always considered that to be off the table in terms of trade

 

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negotiations. I think we consider that a political, a strategic issue,

 

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a sovereignty issue. And I suspect if it was the first time it was raised, it

 

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would have been a considerable surprise.

 

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I also understand that there have been some further complications respecting

 

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aluminium and steel.

 

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But I think the real issue though, aside from the French language one, was you

 

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do not at the last minute, when ostensibly you've almost reached

 

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an agreement, pop somebody else into the negotiations and

 

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add a whole raft of requirements.

 

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You can do it, very tough, but it's not conducive to finding a

 

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way forward.

 

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Yeah, it's very interesting. I mean, you have to think they they did think that

 

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through a little bit. We're now looking at certain deadlines being

 

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into 2027, which means past the midterms, which

 

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is in a very long time to craft a new deal.

 

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If if that was something that came up, it sounds like that

 

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they're not going to rush back for meetings immediately.

 

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When you see announcements continue building for now getting tariff

 

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relief. For various industries, companies that are going to need it over the

 

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course of sort of this discussion of the meanwhile.

 

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How are you looking at the meanwhile?

 

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What do we do in the middle of this?

 

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Well, I think the first thing we're going to have to build on, I think, the

 

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preparations that have already been made, but taken into account the latest

 

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United States decision to add the 50% tariff on a whole range of

 

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things. We're going have to, I think, take things industry by industry,

 

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sector by sector, day by day.

 

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I don't think the situation today is one where the government can sort of wave

 

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a magic wand and say, we're gonna provide this kind of tariff relief to

 

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everybody because the tariffs will affect various industries, various sizes.

 

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Quite a bit differently. And I think to be practical, we have to take into

 

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account the fact that the provinces have a role to play here too.

 

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There is a limit to the Federal Treasury, you know, at some point it all comes

 

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out of our pockets.

 

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So the provinces I think have a, have a roll to play in terms of promoting

 

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tariff relief. But I think to a considerable degree, it's going to be on an

 

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individual basis day by day At the same time still

 

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saying to ourselves it is in the mutual benefit

 

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of both Canada and the United States to resume negotiations at some point.

 

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To your point, perhaps waiting after the midterms might be the way to go.

 

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That's very interesting. You brought the provinces in there and the discussion

 

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of what needs to go on there. I mean, the premiers were kind of front

 

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and centre through that. There was a lot of, well, we'll have to see what the

 

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premiers agree to that and if they don't and if they do.

 

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And then we had the booze going back on the shelf sort of again at the last

 

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minute.

 

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What did that show? A Team Canada approach?

 

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Was there anything else in there sort of strategically?

 

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No, I think that was the main issue.

 

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I mean, you're dealing with two partners who are in a considerable imbalance

 

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of power. You know, the elephant is the United States.

 

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So it behoves us to organise ourselves at all levels of government,

 

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all levels in society, as well as we can to some degree

 

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to counter that imbalance.

 

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And I think the unity that the provinces showed in large sections of the

 

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private sector contributed to that view.

 

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Having said that, I still think the United States in the end underestimated us.

 

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I think Mr. Trump in particular believes in bargaining from a position of great

 

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strength that will cause his opponents to cave in, and I suspect they

 

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were somewhat surprised when it didn't work.

 

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I think that kind of unity that you were talking about helped.

 

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When you look, and again, we're speaking on the 24th of August, so

 

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things could change, but when you look across sort of global headlines of how

 

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this trade collapse, discussions collapse has been discussed

 

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in, you know, the Financial Times, global news outlets,

 

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it's very much, it's slightly pro-Canada.

 

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You know, it is too bad that the alliance between Canada and the U.S.

 

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Couldn't be upheld and worked through by the United States administration.

 

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That seems to be the tone.

 

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Does that wear out?

 

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You know, I don't think it will, partially because if you look at

 

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the trade arrangements that the United States have made across the board with

 

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the EU, the UK, with other countries, you know, they've

 

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made commitments and they've reneged on them.

 

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And I think this is mostly, from the perspective of the

 

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rest of the planet, a especially strong example of

 

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the difficulty of dealing with the United states.

 

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I think it's going to complicate the United States dealing with the rest of the

 

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world. Because they're going to say to themselves, if two countries as close as

 

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Canada and the United States historically can't come to an agreement, what real

 

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hope do we have? I mean, you can exaggerate this reaction, but I

 

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do think people are going to be saying to themselves oh, for the love of God,

 

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if those two can't get together, you know, we're living in a very troubled

 

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world. Right

 

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So then on the other side of things, there's sort of the thoughts, the emotion,

 

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how ultimately everyone looks after this for a period of time,

 

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and maybe it feels like it's not us, you know?

 

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If you really can't get along with Canada, then maybe, you now, other countries

 

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weigh in on their connections and so on.

 

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With that said, we share the border, we know this, we're right next door.

 

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Big discussion. On defence?

 

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Should we be reading much into where we go in terms of defence and working with

 

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the United States on defence, joint defence, and

 

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trade all at once? Do we wrap them all into this conversation that everything's

 

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collapsed?

 

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I don't think so. One of the characteristics of the current U.S.

 

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Administration is that they deal with the world through transactions.

 

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They don't seem to have a holistic, sort of comprehensive, well-thought-out

 

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view of how they're going to advance their own policies.

 

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So I would argue that in particular, because we share common adversaries,

 

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we share a common continent, we have to separate the two.

 

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You know, whether we like the United States today or next week or not, if there

 

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are North Korean or Chinese missiles...

 

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Susceptible of reaching north america we need to deal with this together

 

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much like the you know for example the over the horizon uh...

 

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Radar that we're building with the americans of north so i would separate the

 

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two and i guess i would also add the thought that if we really did cut back

 

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on defence because we are annoyed with the american's i think it would make

 

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it even harder to resume negotiations because in an entirely different

 

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part of the u.s. Administrations that's concerned with national security we

 

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would then have annoyed them.

 

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Greatly. So I think you separate the two, but you keep pushing on

 

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both.

 

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So The piece of defence in today's world is

 

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different than it was in past times because it's

 

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just so linked to digital sovereignty, what you're trying to create in terms of

 

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digital sovereignty so you can't be shut off by any other country

 

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or entity ultimately. Canada talks a lot about this within the AI development

 

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that's going on here. It is linked to defence.

 

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I mean, we're looking at literally everything, drones being moved by

 

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AI in Ukraine. And we know the story.

 

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How do we separate those, or do we?

 

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I mean, help us with that.

 

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Well, I think, to call a spade a shovel, to use a very

 

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old expression, we have to be realistic.

 

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We are not going to be able to develop full digital sovereignty.

 

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We just can't do it. The United States has the greatest lead

 

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possible in the world today.

 

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Could we do it over a 30-year period working with allies?

 

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We probably could. I think what we have do in practical terms is

 

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to try and maintain as much independence, build up our capacity, ideally with

 

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allies, and do what we can.

 

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In the end, though, I do not think it would be in the interest of the United

 

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States to start cutting off other countries digitally.

 

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I mean, the Europeans are quite worried about this, as you know.

 

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The Germans in particular are trying to develop a parallel system.

 

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They're not doing this lightly.

 

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It's because they're really concerned, and I think they

 

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want to provide themselves with a measure of protection.

 

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But in direct answer to your question, I think we have to accept that we need

 

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to do everything possible to improve our sovereignty in this area.

 

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But I don't think we can do it perfectly.

 

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There's just too much involved. There's too great a lead.

 

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It's interesting and helpful to hear you say that it's very difficult when

 

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we keep getting called the 51st state to suddenly let

 

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those two things be separate because they feel so interconnected.

 

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But as you say, the European Union has to work together for their own mutual

 

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defence as well, and sometimes they're grumpy with each other also.

 

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True enough.

 

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Take us a little bit into the tariffs and the countermeasures that

 

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are now going to be hitting businesses even harder

 

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here. Those that have had to deal with the fact that their goods are either

 

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not being bought on the other side of the border, or there's great difficulty

 

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with that, are now gonna have it coming the other way.

 

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What sort of patience do you think there is in terms of goodwill in Canada?

 

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I think that's a very good question, and I don't think we're going to know

 

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until we see things evolve.

 

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I think right now, if you look at various polling, there's a great deal of

 

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support for what the government has done.

 

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There's a big deal of support for pushing back on the United States.

 

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But I do think we have to be cognizant of the possibility

 

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that in dealing with this administration, the more we push back, the most we're

 

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to annoy them. So we're going to have to have I think as comprehensive

 

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and thoughtful a way forward as we possibly can.

 

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We are going to have to face these tariffs in the short term.

 

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I think as I was arguing a few minutes ago, we need to treat

 

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each particular tariff against each particular industry individually

 

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and do what we can. They are not going to go away in the

 

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objectives of the federal government, which is to diversify as much as we

 

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possibly can.

 

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But you know, to state the obvious, the government can create an environment

 

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that is conducive to diversification.

 

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If the private sector doesn't really push, take risks and

 

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move forward on diversification, it's not going to work.

 

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So the public and the private sector here really have to work together.

 

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When you take this into the discussion of a big

 

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conference coming up looking for investors, this is in September, the Prime

 

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Minister's Summit, ultimately, Investor Summit,

 

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there are a number of other summits kind of going on at the same time to

 

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drum up Business for Canada for some of the major projects that we've been

 

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hearing announced over the course of the last year and some other things that

 

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are ultimately to be started on as long-term investments if

 

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the types of pledges that the Prime Minister and everyone running this

 

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country and businesses get remotely what they want,

 

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what sort of leverage does that give Canada to go back at it on the trade

 

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front? If you're more bolstered with money from around the world investing in

 

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Canada, Shirley, it's a type of armour.

 

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I think you're absolutely right.

 

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But I think one of the things we have to recognise that these kinds of

 

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investments don't give us a return the next week or the next month.

 

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You know, the oil and gas industry, the AI industry,

 

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a lot of money is required.

 

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I personally think we're pretty well placed to attract a third bit of

 

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investment. But even if you sign the check before things actually

 

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start materialising, it takes a little of time.

 

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I think... If the U.S. Administration starts seeing this and sees the

 

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medium term, then it's going to give us some additional leverage, because

 

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basically they're going to have to acknowledge that their leverage against us

 

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is being reduced.

 

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So I think it's important, but we have to go indirectly

 

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to the question you asked a moment ago.

 

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The people of Canada and the private sector are going to be patient.

 

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There is going to be I think some pain here I don't mean to suggest

 

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for 25 years, but it's not all going to go away in 25 days either.

 

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But with the private and the public sectors writ large, working together

 

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with those investments, I think it will make a difference.

 

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Do you think that within the discussions of how tariff

 

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and the regime and the places of origin for all kinds of parts,

 

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ultimately the discussion of China and how Canada trades with China,

 

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is there something there that's going to have to be given?

 

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Will there be more support for allies in certain parts of the world and less

 

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for others? Do you see that being something that's opened up and

 

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ultimately given one way or the other?

 

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I mean Canada's always had China as a trading partner, a big one.

 

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Well, if the rumours are correct, that's one of the issues that prompted Canada

 

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to walk away from the negotiations, which was the suggestion that the United

 

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States would have some say on

 

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which countries and how we traded with other countries.

 

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That's an unacceptable sort of arrangement unless you're at war.

 

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So will it make a difference in the medium term?

 

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I think it will. We cannot diversify our trade by simply

 

16:23.282 --> 16:26.085

saying we're willing to trade with every country on the planet.

 

16:26.085 --> 16:29.154

We're going to have to be selective. We have to think about it.

 

16:29.154 --> 16:33.525

I mean, there are some sectors where financial services have more potential and

 

16:33.525 --> 16:37.096

in others, it's oil and gas. In the third sector, it is something else.

 

16:37.096 --> 16:41.033

So, I think, going back to my earlier point, the government has

 

16:41.033 --> 16:44.269

a role to play here. They really do in setting up the framework to have this

 

16:44.269 --> 16:48.674

happen. But the private sector, broken down sectorially,

 

16:48.674 --> 16:52.644

has to decide, you know, Indonesia, for example, just to

 

16:52.644 --> 16:57.049

pick an example, huge country, growing middle class,

 

16:57.049 --> 17:01.086

what can we do there? Japan, a somewhat neglected ally

 

17:01.086 --> 17:03.789

of Canada for a long time, what do we do their?

 

17:03.789 --> 17:07.893

While still keeping in mind While China may

 

17:07.893 --> 17:09.828

be an adversary, we're not at war with them.

 

17:09.828 --> 17:13.432

We can still trade with them, while recognising that on some issues we're going

 

17:13.432 --> 17:17.369

to have to fundamentally disagree and push back.

 

17:17.369 --> 17:20.506

Well, Indonesia is the Straits of Malacca, which is a place that you'd want to

 

17:20.506 --> 17:24.143

shore up one way or the other, so investment should help with that.

 

17:24.143 --> 17:28.414

I think so. I mean, good relations overall with a particular country

 

17:28.414 --> 17:32.518

or grouping of country, I think, reinforce the likelihood that our

 

17:32.518 --> 17:37.322

relations will be protected and that they will take a view of the world,

 

17:37.322 --> 17:41.760

that the Straits of Malacca, for example, are international trade passage

 

17:41.760 --> 17:43.762

ways and they should be kept open.

 

17:43.762 --> 17:47.566

The more relations we have with countries like that, I thin the better it is

 

17:47.566 --> 17:49.201

for everybody.

 

17:49.201 --> 17:52.805

The Prime Minister has framed almost from day one in looking at international

 

17:52.805 --> 17:56.942

business investment that you can sort of trade with countries

 

17:56.942 --> 18:01.346

and not necessarily have a view on how they run their countries and that's

 

18:01.346 --> 18:05.017

a departure from other types of trade relationships that we've had over the

 

18:05.017 --> 18:07.519

course of the last half century or so.

 

18:07.519 --> 18:11.523

With that said, from your role at CSIS, Canadian security

 

18:11.523 --> 18:15.861

side of things, This is a new era of investment from investors around

 

18:15.861 --> 18:19.064

the world, from different countries that we do or don't agree with on all types

 

18:19.064 --> 18:23.235

of different policies. That's going to be slightly put aside.

 

18:23.235 --> 18:26.705

But how do you put that aside from a security side of things?

 

18:26.705 --> 18:31.510

There must be a sort of fascinating new webbing for security,

 

18:31.510 --> 18:35.514

for investment in this country to make sure it's the right kind of investment

 

18:35.514 --> 18:38.317

coming from the right kind of entity.

 

18:38.317 --> 18:42.254

I think at one level, if you'll forgive me for using a medical

 

18:42.254 --> 18:45.090

analogy, I think we have to be schizophrenic.

 

18:45.090 --> 18:49.094

We have to be able to separate trade and economics, tourism and

 

18:49.094 --> 18:51.830

things of that nature, and national security.

 

18:51.830 --> 18:54.366

It is exactly what the Chinese do.

 

18:54.366 --> 18:58.003

If you look at what they say publicly and they write about, they are in favour

 

18:58.003 --> 19:02.574

of the UN Charter, they're in favour humanitarian

 

19:02.574 --> 19:04.843

aid, peace and whatnot.

 

19:04.843 --> 19:08.714

Yet their intelligence and national security policy.

 

19:08.714 --> 19:12.918

Is dedicated to moving their files as much as they can, taking into

 

19:12.918 --> 19:15.320

account very little international law.

 

19:15.320 --> 19:19.491

I think we have to acknowledge that our adversaries are like that,

 

19:19.491 --> 19:21.260

and I don't think we like doing this.

 

19:21.260 --> 19:25.264

You know, we sort of think of China, or many people think of Chinese as a

 

19:25.264 --> 19:27.332

big market, you know.

 

19:27.332 --> 19:31.170

Yes, we have a few problems, but in fact there are some components of Chinese

 

19:31.170 --> 19:35.174

policy, and I'm just picking one country as you have that are really,

 

19:35.174 --> 19:40.045

really objectionable. I think we have to acknowledge that to begin with.

 

19:40.045 --> 19:43.081

And then in each case, you do what you would do in any business deal.

 

19:43.081 --> 19:46.351

You do more due diligence than you might have in the past.

 

19:46.351 --> 19:48.687

That's all doable. It takes time.

 

19:48.687 --> 19:52.658

It's a little bit expensive, but in the end, better to find out before than

 

19:52.658 --> 19:55.327

after you sign a deal.

 

19:55.327 --> 19:59.298

Absolutely, absolutely, 100%. It's sort of, you know, do you take the money?

 

19:59.298 --> 20:02.000

And do you have to do the due diligence to figure out whether that's going to

 

20:02.000 --> 20:06.004

work? It's also a discussion of just different branches of the government,

 

20:06.004 --> 20:09.241

some of them are crown corporations, some of the aren't, to sort of figure out

 

20:09.241 --> 20:11.677

who international investors will be doing business with.

 

20:11.677 --> 20:15.547

Let's say they come to Canada, and they're talking a bit about having the book

 

20:15.547 --> 20:18.517

of things to invest in, I was reading about.

 

20:18.517 --> 20:22.654

On the weekend. And yeah, you know, there's this mine,

 

20:22.654 --> 20:25.791

there is this area that you can invest in over here.

 

20:25.791 --> 20:28.894

But who are you dealing with? Are you dealing with an arm of the federal

 

20:28.894 --> 20:30.796

government, the provincial?

 

20:30.796 --> 20:34.566

Take us to that a little bit, because some of that is trying to be smoothed

 

20:34.566 --> 20:38.737

over and so there are not so many pieces of it, who international investors

 

20:38.737 --> 20:40.973

are dealing with.

 

20:40.973 --> 20:44.910

Well, I think in the final analysis, if it's something coming in from

 

20:44.910 --> 20:48.714

across our borders, the federal government has the final say.

 

20:48.714 --> 20:53.051

If they don't want Chinese or Russian

 

20:53.051 --> 20:57.089

or any investment, they have the capacity under the national security

 

20:57.089 --> 21:01.193

provisions of the Investment Canada Statutes to say no or

 

21:01.193 --> 21:03.395

to say yes with conditions.

 

21:03.395 --> 21:07.332

At the same time, if they're trying to make investments in

 

21:07.332 --> 21:10.936

a matter under provincial jurisdiction, mines for example.

 

21:10.936 --> 21:13.905

The provinces can also impose conditions.

 

21:13.905 --> 21:18.977

So one of the issues we have here is there really is a two-layered

 

21:18.977 --> 21:20.679

approval process.

 

21:20.679 --> 21:24.950

But usually, if you can get through the federal national security,

 

21:24.950 --> 21:26.351

you know.

 

21:26.351 --> 21:27.786

Layer.

 

21:27.786 --> 21:31.790

Layer thank you but then you're you're not doing badly

 

21:31.790 --> 21:35.727

if it makes any sense at all the investor would have initially had

 

21:35.727 --> 21:39.831

a conversation with the province and with the public the private sector and

 

21:39.831 --> 21:42.968

it's only when it comes to very near the end or near the and that the federal

 

21:42.968 --> 21:47.172

government has to so to say there's a national security issue

 

21:47.172 --> 21:51.476

uh... It's a very very broad power and i think uh...

 

21:51.476 --> 21:55.647

It's being used increasingly but i think one of them

 

21:55.647 --> 21:59.751

lobby the government on this we don't do it very transparently

 

21:59.751 --> 22:03.555

if the the prerogative given to the federal government here's almost unlimited

 

22:03.555 --> 22:07.559

you know they say national security and they wave a magic wand it would

 

22:07.559 --> 22:11.630

probably help the private sector if some of the criteria that are applied

 

22:11.630 --> 22:14.166

by the federal governments were made public.

 

22:14.166 --> 22:16.234

Most other countries do that.

 

22:16.234 --> 22:20.172

So, I mean, and I'm sure that sounds absolutely reasonable in

 

22:20.172 --> 22:22.974

the way you do it, but there are going to be investors from different parts of

 

22:22.974 --> 22:27.079

the globe that will come with money and they don't want to do that in the

 

22:27.079 --> 22:29.715

same way that Canadians would expect it.

 

22:29.715 --> 22:32.684

I mean there's literally a different way of doing business overseas, which is

 

22:32.684 --> 22:34.419

neither bad nor good.

 

22:34.419 --> 22:36.855

It is different though.

 

22:36.855 --> 22:38.957

Yeah, no, I think that's true.

 

22:38.957 --> 22:42.794

And I think it's another issue from our perspective of being realistic about

 

22:42.794 --> 22:46.865

these things. We have our ways of doing things, and that's the end of the

 

22:46.865 --> 22:49.735

argument. We do those things this way.

 

22:49.735 --> 22:53.672

But it also behoves us, for example, to know that what

 

22:53.672 --> 22:57.776

is going on. For example, some years ago, before we had the same

 

22:57.776 --> 23:01.947

level of concern, whatever adversaries was making

 

23:01.947 --> 23:05.951

small investments in mines in the extreme

 

23:05.951 --> 23:07.919

North of Canada.

 

23:07.919 --> 23:10.589

And we weren't linking them together until quite a bit later.

 

23:10.589 --> 23:13.792

We have to be aware that if people are doing things beneath the legal

 

23:13.792 --> 23:16.595

threshold, that doesn't mean they are no concern.

 

23:16.595 --> 23:20.098

So it means that we have to have a fair bit of due diligence ourselves in terms

 

23:20.098 --> 23:24.603

of what investments are taking place both above the threshold of review,

 

23:24.603 --> 23:27.973

but also below it so that we know what's happening.

 

23:27.973 --> 23:31.643

What do you think, broadly, because we're on this topic, of governments taking

 

23:31.643 --> 23:33.445

stakes in companies?

 

23:33.445 --> 23:37.649

I mean, Canada's doing this as well for some of our own national champions,

 

23:37.649 --> 23:39.351

for instance. The U.S.

 

23:39.351 --> 23:42.554

Is doing that into Canadian companies as well.

 

23:42.554 --> 23:47.025

Some of it is front page information because it seems

 

23:47.025 --> 23:48.827

wild and shocking.

 

23:48.827 --> 23:52.397

But do you expect that? I'm just sort of curious your thoughts on the pros and

 

23:52.397 --> 23:55.000

cons of that.

 

23:55.000 --> 23:58.236

Well, I would develop two lists.

 

23:58.236 --> 24:02.274

There's a list of companies and sectors of the economy where I would

 

24:02.274 --> 24:07.112

say no foreign investment or very, very limited foreign investment.

 

24:07.112 --> 24:10.949

And another part where you'd say somebody wants to invest, they can invest all

 

24:10.949 --> 24:14.853

they want, but they're subject to Canadian law like everybody else.

 

24:14.853 --> 24:18.890

You know, for example, I'm not sure I would, if I were the king of the castle,

 

24:18.890 --> 24:21.226

which I will never be, I would say.

 

24:21.226 --> 24:25.697

I'm not sure we'd like a great deal of investments in the IT area

 

24:25.697 --> 24:29.901

or in the financial sector by foreign governments.

 

24:29.901 --> 24:34.306

On the other hand, if people want to invest in the lumber industry, you know,

 

24:34.306 --> 24:36.274

you want to know what's going on and you let it go.

 

24:36.274 --> 24:39.311

So I think you would have to distinguish the sectors of the economy that you're

 

24:39.311 --> 24:40.345

talking about.

 

24:40.345 --> 24:43.682

Right, and the ones that just literally have national security sort of

 

24:43.682 --> 24:44.049

ramifications. That's right.

 

24:44.049 --> 24:44.883

That's right, that's right.

 

24:44.883 --> 24:47.919

Around how that works.

 

24:47.919 --> 24:52.591

So what would you say in terms of just other stories analogous

 

24:52.591 --> 24:56.661

to countries around the world who have been setting up new types

 

24:56.661 --> 25:00.932

of trade? How much are we going to be trading with different allies?

 

25:00.932 --> 25:05.837

The diversification effort, which I hear you is not going to happen tomorrow.

 

25:05.837 --> 25:09.875

But can you sort of give us a thought on what you think it might look

 

25:09.875 --> 25:13.745

like 10 years from now? And again, you're gonna be a bit off one way or the

 

25:13.745 --> 25:18.283

other, but is it going to be pretty diversified away from the U.S.?

 

25:18.283 --> 25:21.386

I think, actually, we've passed a threshold.

 

25:21.386 --> 25:24.489

I mean, I'm quoting the Prime Minister to some degree, but I do think we've

 

25:24.489 --> 25:27.726

past the barrier that we're not going to go back again.

 

25:27.726 --> 25:30.896

Will we ever be able to ignore the United States as a trading partner?

 

25:30.896 --> 25:33.231

I don't think that's practical. I really don't.

 

25:33.231 --> 25:37.369

But I do that Canadians generally have accepted that we cannot go

 

25:37.369 --> 25:41.406

back to over-dependence on the United states.

 

25:41.406 --> 25:45.544

In particular, if the United State continues to act the way it has been over

 

25:45.544 --> 25:48.046

the last couple of years in respect of trade.

 

25:48.046 --> 25:51.750

Not just with us, but with the rest of the world, I think that diversification

 

25:51.750 --> 25:55.787

will be encouraged. But I would say that in 10 years, we

 

25:55.787 --> 25:59.157

will have gone some distance to diversify.

 

25:59.157 --> 26:03.261

But I come back to what I said earlier, it will only work if both all levels of

 

26:03.261 --> 26:07.265

government and the private sector work together and acknowledge that in some

 

26:07.265 --> 26:10.602

areas, working with our allies will make things happen much, much more

 

26:10.602 --> 26:12.203

effectively and faster.

 

26:12.203 --> 26:15.974

What do you think our energy picture, if you had to draw a picture, will look

 

26:15.974 --> 26:20.145

like? There's discussion right now of Keystone XL being revived, certainly by

 

26:20.145 --> 26:22.814

the president, it's being discussed. We have the announcement of Churchill

 

26:22.814 --> 26:25.383

Falls, which is much more of a grid.

 

26:25.383 --> 26:30.455

We know the nuclear discussions going on in Ontario.

 

26:30.455 --> 26:33.625

What do, if you have to sort of paint a broad picture of what energy might look

 

26:33.625 --> 26:37.262

like, maybe 10, I don't know, maybe longer, maybe 20 years from now, is it

 

26:37.262 --> 26:42.233

going to be markedly away from fossil fuels, do you thing?

 

26:42.233 --> 26:44.135

I think we're going to end up in that direction.

 

26:44.135 --> 26:47.172

I mean, whether we like it or not, I think the planet is going to have to cope

 

26:47.172 --> 26:48.907

with that.

 

26:48.907 --> 26:53.011

I think, you know, Churchill Falls is going, is going generate a great

 

26:53.011 --> 26:57.582

deal of hydroelectricity we can use in Canada

 

26:57.582 --> 26:59.384

as opposed to using fossil fuels.

 

26:59.384 --> 27:02.053

We can also sell some to the United States.

 

27:02.053 --> 27:05.590

But I think that we're talking about a timeframe that's difficult.

 

27:05.590 --> 27:08.727

I think one of the greatest contributions that we can make to the national

 

27:08.727 --> 27:13.198

security of europe and parts of asia is to provide them with energy

 

27:13.198 --> 27:17.168

i mean to be able to say the germany i'm just picking germany but

 

27:17.168 --> 27:21.439

you do not ever have to rely on russian oil and gas significantly

 

27:21.439 --> 27:25.644

improves their national security same thing with japan if we can guarantee

 

27:25.644 --> 27:30.148

them an energy supply it significantly improves

 

27:30.148 --> 27:34.119

the capability to function in an environment where they're not constantly

 

27:34.119 --> 27:37.989

worried about what china might or what somebody else might do.

 

27:37.989 --> 27:42.360

So I think we're going to be doing more, but I think in practical terms,

 

27:42.360 --> 27:44.262

we have to worry about climate change.

 

27:44.262 --> 27:48.700

I mean, whether you are a climate change denier

 

27:48.700 --> 27:52.937

or not, the climate is changing and we have find a way of dealing with

 

27:52.937 --> 27:57.275

it. And that will involve the whole raft of things, both here and

 

27:57.275 --> 28:01.279

internationally. And I think it will mean the slow reduction in the

 

28:01.279 --> 28:05.483

use of fossil fuels. I means, for example, will you and I buy

 

28:05.483 --> 28:07.852

an EV, the next car that we buy.

 

28:07.852 --> 28:13.758

Multiplied by 100,000 in Canada, I think the trend is in that direction.

 

28:13.758 --> 28:17.762

If you had to give a percentile as a risk that

 

28:17.762 --> 28:22.133

separatist discussions and maybe ultimately

 

28:22.133 --> 28:26.237

referendums pose to this country's unity,

 

28:26.237 --> 28:30.608

where would you put that percentile?

 

28:30.608 --> 28:34.846

I don't think, I think it's beneath 50%.

 

28:34.846 --> 28:39.217

I think that if people sit down and seriously

 

28:39.217 --> 28:43.054

think through at the time of a referendum, I'm not about a referendum on a

 

28:43.054 --> 28:43.288

referendum.

 

28:43.288 --> 28:44.422

Exactly, yeah.

 

28:44.422 --> 28:48.193

Political debate, what it will mean in practical terms.

 

28:48.193 --> 28:51.963

I mean, I think we have one of the better countries on the planet right now,

 

28:51.963 --> 28:55.600

but our influence is limited. If Alberta separates, if they think their

 

28:55.600 --> 28:59.604

influence on a whole raft of policy affecting them is going to increase, I thin

 

28:59.604 --> 29:04.843

they're mistaken. They will be a landlocked country in

 

29:04.843 --> 29:09.247

North America with a population, you know, 20%

 

29:09.247 --> 29:13.284

of what Canada is. I cannot see how this improves their situation.

 

29:13.284 --> 29:17.288

Same thing with Quebec. So I think in the end, when people take deep

 

29:17.288 --> 29:20.024

breaths, it's well beneath the 50%.

 

29:20.024 --> 29:22.060

At least I hope so.

 

29:22.060 --> 29:26.397

Yeah, me too. What would be a final thought for Canadians who are

 

29:26.397 --> 29:30.535

kind of digesting the discussion that trade talks have collapsed

 

29:30.535 --> 29:34.906

for now? There's still an overhang, and we're about to embark on retaliation.

 

29:34.906 --> 29:37.942

What ultimately would be your last thought?

 

29:37.942 --> 29:41.246

I think the last thought should be that this is not of our doing.

 

29:41.246 --> 29:44.682

I think we've handled it pretty well as well as we might have.

 

29:44.682 --> 29:48.019

We need to be patient and we need to hang together.

 

29:48.019 --> 29:52.290

And to your earlier point diversify, diversify diversify but mostly

 

29:52.290 --> 29:53.925

patience.

 

29:53.925 --> 29:55.727

Dick Fadden, it's a delight to speak with you.

 

29:55.727 --> 30:00.231

We are so grateful that you join us often enough and we hope to see you soon.

 

30:00.231 --> 30:01.966

Have a great rest of your day.

 

30:01.966 --> 30:04.969

Thank you, it's a pleasure being with you.

 

30:04.969 --> 30:07.038

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