The Upside: Views from London: Central Banks & what’s next with Tom Stevenson – June 23, 2026

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Hello, and welcome to The Upside. I'm Nicole Correale.

 

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It's been exactly 10 years since UK voters made the historic decision

 

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to leave the European Union.

 

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Now a decade on the country is facing another major political moment with Prime

 

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Minister Keir Starmer stepping down just two years after a landmark election

 

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victory for the Labour Party.

 

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It's a reminder that the effects of Brexit are still playing out, not just

 

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economically but politically from trade to growth to leadership.

 

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At the same time the UK is navigating a fresh energy shot tied to tensions with

 

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Iran, shifting oil prices and diverging central bank policy across

 

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Europe. The Bank of England is on hold, the European Central Bank is tightening

 

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and investors are left trying to make sense of it all.

 

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What does it all mean for markets and what should investors be watching from

 

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here? Joining me now from London to impact the latest market narrative shaping

 

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the UK and Europe is Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity

 

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International. Welcome Tom.

 

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Hi, Nicole, thanks for having me on again.

 

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Of course. It's so great to see you.

 

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Tom, there is so much, so much to unpack

 

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today but I want to start with Prime Minister Keir Starmer announcing his

 

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resignation. It was only two years ago that he won a historic landslide win

 

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and now after mounting pressure from his cabinet ministers he has announced his

 

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resignation. Before we get into markets what's the tone like in the UK right

 

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now?

 

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I mean, you're absolutely right to point out that it's only two years since the

 

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Labour Party scored a landslide

 

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victory in the last general election.

 

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It's pretty strange, frankly, that we should be looking at

 

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a new Prime Minister but it actually does link in with what you

 

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were talking about there with the 10th anniversary of the Brexit

 

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vote. Fundamentally, what has happened in

 

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that two year period since the last general

 

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election is that Reform UK, the

 

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insurgent right of

 

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centre party which has kind of replaced the Conservatives as the main

 

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opposition to the Labour government, they have

 

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really been very successful in local government elections and

 

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the Labour Party is worried about their ability to

 

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fight them off at the next general election.

 

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The question that they're asking themselves, and this is the question that Keir

 

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Starmer actually referred to in his resignation speech, who

 

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is the right person to lead them into that next general election in probably

 

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three years' time.

 

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The MPs, the members of parliament, have decided that

 

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Keir Starmer is not the man. Almost certainly it will be

 

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a guy called Andy Burnham who until last week, when he won a

 

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parliamentary byelection, was the mayor of Manchester.

 

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Now, he's not an unknown figure. He has been in the Cabinet before,

 

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he's a seasoned politician, he is popular and

 

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it now seems very likely given the support he's been given by

 

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other potential leadership contenders, it now seems very likely

 

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that it will be more of a coronation than a leadership contest.

 

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I would be very surprised if he were not the next Prime Minister.

 

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I was listening this morning to Keir Starmer's resignation speech where

 

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he highlighted a number of accomplishments over the past two years, including

 

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the UK economy growing faster than its peers and wages outpacing

 

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inflation. Given those accomplishments why are his

 

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Cabinet officials

 

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... what's driving this resignation if he's been doing well for the economy?

 

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It's a very good question and it's something which puzzles many

 

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of us, really.

 

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The fact is that the Labour government is extremely unpopular.

 

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They're unpopular for a number of reasons but

 

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the principal reason is probably that those achievements

 

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which Keir Starmer mentioned are

 

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not really recognized by people in their daily lives.

 

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That's largely to do with the ongoing cost of living crisis.

 

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It's largely to do with inflation, rising interest

 

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rates, rising housing costs, mortgage costs.

 

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Yes, the Labour Party can rightly claim to have achieved quite

 

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a lot of things in the last two years but most people don't feel it in their

 

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day-to-day lives.

 

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That's a great point.

 

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Switching gears to Brexit, exactly 10 years ago the UK voted to leave the

 

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European Union and now a decade on ...

 

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well, I don't know if it's still on the table but UK officials were suggesting

 

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establishing a single market for goods with the EU.

 

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Speaking of prime ministers, the fact that in 10 years the

 

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UK has gone through about seven of them, what does this say about the

 

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health of the country?

 

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Is this single markets goods sort of a have your cake and eat it too moment?

 

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I think the relationship with the EU

 

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is still 10

 

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years on an extremely hot topic.

 

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I think it's clear that the Labour Party was edging

 

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towards a closer relationship with Europe again.

 

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I think that they would claim, and many people would agree, that in

 

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economic terms the last 10 years have not been great for the UK.

 

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I think politically it remains a really sticky subject.

 

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I think it will be very interesting to see what happens

 

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to the thinking within the government about the relationship with Europe

 

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under new leadership.

 

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The one thing we haven't mentioned there is what the EU think about the UK

 

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having a closer relationship with the EU.

 

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There are still a lot of unanswered questions around that but it's a

 

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good moment to be thinking about it 10 years on because, frankly,

 

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it's been a difficult period for the UK.

 

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How have things been market wise?

 

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You said that the accomplishments that Starmer

 

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had mentioned this morning aren't really felt by the

 

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day-to-day citizens of the UK.

 

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I guess with the ongoing war in Iran,

 

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oil prices, can you just unpack for those who don't know

 

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how really integrated oil is for

 

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the UK and why events like these really hit

 

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consumers, mortgage rates and the cost of living.

 

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I think the oil price is absolutely central to economic

 

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life, not just in the UK, around the globe.

 

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It works on two levels. It works on the level of just the

 

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cost of going around your daily life.

 

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When the cost of putting petrol in your

 

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car goes up sharply that's a very significant cost, likewise

 

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the cost of heating your home.

 

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That's one one element of it. The other element is the impact that oil has

 

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on inflation. The consequence

 

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of that is what happens to interest rates and therefore mortgage rates.

 

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What we've seen, I mean, not just here, around the

 

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world but it's been particularly the case in the UK that interest rates have

 

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risen quite sharply, mortgage rates are much higher

 

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than they were five years ago.

 

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Because of the nature of how mortgages work in the UK we have

 

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a lot of people on fixed rate mortgages that last for two years or

 

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five years so the impact of rising interest

 

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rates actually lasts for quite a long time.

 

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There's a bit of a lag before it's really felt.

 

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We're still seeing people coming off mortgage rates at

 

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very low levels, maybe less than 1% in some cases, and

 

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then going on to mortgage rates of maybe 5%.

 

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I mean, that is a massive difference, especially if you've stretched yourself

 

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quite far in your house purchase.

 

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To go from a 1% interest rate to a 5% interest rate is devastating for

 

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household finances. You extrapolate that around the economy

 

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and it means that there is a real tightness in the

 

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consumer economy in the UK at the moment.

 

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Speaking of inflation we'll turn to central banks.

 

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In your June 1st note you called that the ECB were to hike, and that's what

 

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they did, they hiked to 2.25%, but yet the

 

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Bank of England is on hold.

 

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What do you make of this divergence between the ECB and the Bank

 

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of England?

 

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I think the ECB and the Bank of England are

 

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facing different questions.

 

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It's the same issue, it's around inflation and growth, but

 

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they're slightly different in the UK and in Europe.

 

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In Europe I think the fear is more about

 

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inflation. Interest rates have come down quite a long way in

 

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Europe and at 2% they were pretty low by comparison.

 

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They were about half the level that they are in the UK,

 

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3.75%.

 

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I think it was pretty clear that with inflation worries rising

 

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in Europe interest rates were going to go up.

 

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In the UK it's a slightly more nuanced question because of

 

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the things that I've been talking about, about the growth,

 

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about the growth scares, about fears about the

 

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labour market, the jobs market. I think the Bank of England is really

 

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trying to balance two things. Yes, it's worried about inflation but it's also

 

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worried about tightening too much because interest rates are already quite

 

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restrictive, tightening too much and therefore plunging

 

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the economy into recession.

 

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I think that's why the UK, the Bank of England, is on hold

 

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at the moment but with, I would say, a tightening

 

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bias. I think that the next move in interest rates is probably up rather than

 

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down. They're just holding [indecipherable] a bit longer than they need to

 

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in Europe.

 

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What does this mean for investors?

 

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Are there opportunities? Where do you see opportunities now then with

 

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everything that you just said?

 

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All of this backdrop is going

 

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on in an environment of a very strong

 

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stock market.

 

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We have seen an AI driven,

 

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a technology driven bull market, which continues

 

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albeit with some nervousness and anxiety around it.

 

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Also, in the backdrop we've got what we've been discussing about the

 

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situation in the Gulf and the oil price.

 

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We've got a lot of different moving parts.

 

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I think that's where investors find themselves at the moment, in many cases

 

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they've had an extremely good run with their investments.

 

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Over the last three years markets generally, but the

 

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UK has participated in this, have really done very

 

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well. I think people are in that stage of the stock market cycle

 

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where they are keen to continue participating in

 

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ongoing AI related growth, which I think is underpinned

 

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by real earnings growth, it's a genuine story.

 

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People don't want to duck out too quickly from that story because they

 

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feel that AI is a genuine economic transformation that they want to

 

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be a part of. At the same time there are things to be worried about

 

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so they want to make sure that they're thinking about capital preservation

 

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at the same time. I think that investors are really, you know,

 

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there's a bit of a dilemma. They're on the horns of a dilemma.

 

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I think we're seeing that in the markets, actually.

 

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The markets are kind of drifting at the moment because there are so many

 

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unresolved issues.

 

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The Gulf is unresolved.

 

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The AI situation, is there going to be a decent return on all that massive

 

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investment in AI, that's unresolved.

 

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Interest rates, that's unresolved.

 

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People just don't quite know where we're going from here.

 

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Now bringing into the mix, just going back to the resignation of Keir Starmer,

 

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does that really move the needle at all, the fact that there could be a new

 

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prime minister, or does it not really affect the macro

 

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backdrop?

 

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I think in the UK context it's very important.

 

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The importance is probably less in the

 

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equity, the stock market, than it is in the bond market.

 

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Assuming the next prime minister is Andy Burnham

 

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it would constitute quite a move to the left in

 

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terms of government policy and fiscal policy, spending,

 

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taxation. I think that that typically makes markets and

 

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bond markets a bit nervous.

 

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It was very interesting when we had the resignation speech this morning, the

 

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market reaction was very muted.

 

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The stock market was flat.

 

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There was a slight tick up in bond yields indicating nervousness

 

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in the bond market, but not very much at all.

 

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The pound fell  but only by a cent against

 

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the dollar. Pretty marginal moves in all the key financial

 

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markets. I think what that's saying is that the markets are

 

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watching. They're giving the new government the benefit

 

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of the doubt for now.

 

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It's a fragile truce. It's a bit like what's going on in the Gulf.

 

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They will watch and if they don't like what they see then I think

 

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they'll push bond yields higher and then the government would have a problem.

 

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With all that in mind, energy, interest rates, possibly a new prime

 

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minister, how should investors be thinking about positioning into the second

 

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half?

 

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I think they need to be thinking about

 

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remaining invested, participating in this ongoing bull market because

 

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I think

 

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it may be a maturing bull market, certainly not a young bull market.

 

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At the same time I think they also need to be thinking slightly defensively

 

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about protecting what they've already gained.

 

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For me, the best way to do that is really through diversification.

 

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So much of the

 

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gain in the stock market has been associated with the technology sector,

 

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with growth stocks, with the AI theme, in particular.

 

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There are other parts of the market and there are other geographies

 

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which are not so impacted by that.

 

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I'm thinking outside the US, outside markets like Korea and Taiwan

 

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which have been beneficiaries of the AI theme.

 

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There are other markets, actually, like the UK which are much

 

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cheaper, much less highly valued than some of those hot markets at

 

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the moment. A diversification that includes lots of different geographies,

 

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different asset classes and just thinks a bit more

 

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defensively, maybe thinking about income, thinking about

 

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funds which have income as a specific target,

 

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that might help give an investor a smoother ride in these quite

 

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difficult market conditions.

 

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Tom, this has been a wonderful discussion.

 

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I want to thank you so much for joining me today.

 

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Thank you for joining me on The Upside. For more investor content be sure to

 

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subscribe to our YouTube page to never miss an episode, and sign up for a

 

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newsletter. Remember, working with a financial advisor is the best investment

 

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you can make on your financial journey.

 

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00:16:08,767 --> 00:16:10,202

For The Upside I'm Nicole Correale.

 

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