The Upside: Capital markets uncovered: 2025 recap & 2026 outlook

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Hello, and welcome to The Upside.

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I'm Emily Anonuevo. As we settle into the first few weeks of 2026

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there are a lot of questions on the minds of investors.

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How will markets react to recent job data, for example?

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What does that mean for interest rates?

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How does ongoing geopolitical risk around the world fit into the bigger market

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picture? In addition, what trends, topics and questions should investors keep

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in mind as they approach this brand new year?

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Our next guest is here to shine a light on the markets, give his perspectives

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on the state of play and discuss how some of Fidelity's products could

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potentially fit in your investment portfolio.

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Please welcome Fidelity Director of ETFs, Andrei Bruno.

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Andrei, welcome and Happy New Year.

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Happy New Year. It's always great to be here chatting with you.

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Always great to have you here. Start of a fresh new year.

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Now, before we get into the major market themes of 2025 and

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what you see for 2026, Andrei, if you could just introduce yourself

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to the audience and specifically explain what you and your team does.

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I know you touch a lot of design aspects of Fidelity products,

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really interesting stuff, what does your team do exactly and what do you

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take into consideration when creating these products?

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In my role we primarily operate in two silos.

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The first silo would be product development, so everything from idea generation

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all the way up to launching ETF products.

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Under the hood what we're constantly doing to support that activity is

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we continuously have our pulse on the ETF market.

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Where is money going?

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What are clients buying? What are client's interested in?

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Where are there gaps in the market in terms of product?

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Where are there gaps in our own personal lineup for product?

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We work with our sub-advisors, our portfolio managers to ...

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once we identify a need in the market how can we bring

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kind of a best-in-class product to service that need.

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We got a lot of research, a lot of running a lot numbers, who's

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going to be the PM on that mandate, what are going to be the parameters.

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Those are the sorts of things that we kind of delve into in our role when we're

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looking at product development. With that it's also just market intelligence

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too so just ongoing all the time.

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What's going on in the markets whether that's financial, whether that's the ETF

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market and keeping our finger on the pulse.

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The second silo would be kind of the ETF capital market side.

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That's dealing with all the kind of idiosyncrasies with how ETFs

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trade in market. As we know, they're traded on stock exchanges just like

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stocks so what that side of the team does is constantly

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monitoring how are ETFs trading?

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Is there ample liquidity out there for our clients to have a smooth experience?

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Are the spreads reasonable? Are they being priced intraday where we think

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they should be? Working with the various market makers on the street to ensure

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a smooth operation and smooth trading experience for our client.

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Those are the two silos that we broadly operate on the ETF side.

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Andrei, let's take a few moments to look back on 2025.

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What a year it was.

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What are some of the biggest themes and market movers

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that stood out to you for 2025?

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If we think back to where we came into the year, the momentum trade, the

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growthy tech Mag-7 trade was still in full effect, and then we

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got a tariff tantrum. We had a complete reversal of leadership there.

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What was working before wasn't working now and what wasn't worked before was

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now working. That lasted a short while until we did get

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the tariff reprieve and then the momentum trade took over once again and

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kind of continued into year-end. That was a big theme, the tariffs.

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It's still overhanging us to some degree, there's still a lot of uncertainty

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around what's gonna be the long term strategy here with tariffs

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in the U.S.,  are they going to continue to hold, but I'd say that's more or

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less been put on the back burner in terms of what the market's been focusing

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on.

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Another theme that we saw emerge during those tariffs, we

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started to see a diversification away from U.S.

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equities. We saw a tremendous amount of flows into international equities

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and, in fact, last year was the first year in a long while, speaking of ETF

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flows here and using it as a proxy for overall flow, we saw international

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equites number one in terms of equity flows.

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That is a big change in paradigm than what we've historically seen.

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What came up after the first half of the year, we got this reprieve and

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momentum started working again, the question we had was are we going to

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continue to see international equities garner interest and garner flows and, in

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fact, it did going into your-end.

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That was another interesting theme from a flows perspective.

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Then, of course, the big theme that everyone talks about whether you're

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watching CNBC or you're at a coffee shop is AI.

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That continues to be a big driver for equity market returns.

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The big question that folks are having now is, is this going to

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continue and if it does, how long?

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That held up through the year and Q3 and Q4 earnings, everyone was taking a

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close look at to see if the earnings were still going to be there on those AI

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tech names. We did see reasonable earnings.

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A lot of these companies are very well capitalized, to contrast that to kind of

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early 2000s in the tech wreck when a lot of companies weren't

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cash flow positive, weren't making money.

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It's a very different setup relative to that to assuage some

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concerns that we could have a repeat of that.

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I think that's gonna continue to be a theme going into 2026 as well.

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The AI trend, the move away from U.S.

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equities into other parts of the world and, of course,

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the tariffs. Besides that what can investors expect

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in terms of major themes going into 2026?

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I think the AI theme is going to continue. I think this is a longer term theme

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that we're talking about here.

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Right now we're still kind of in that phase of, you know, if you break out AI a

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little bit you've got the software side, you've got the hardware side and

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you've got what I like to call the bricks and mortar side.

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When I say the bricks and mortars, how is AI going to affect the other 493

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names in the S&P 500?

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I think that's a question a lot of people are grappling with right now and what

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that's going to look like to the broader economy over the next 5, 10, 15

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years and as a consequence how is that going to shape the investing

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landscape over the next 5, 10, 15 years?

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It'll be really interesting to see. That's something we're certainly keeping an

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eye on.

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Another thing to consider for 2026, we talked about international

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equities as well, it still remains an interesting area.

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There's a couple of factors at play there.

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Number one, generally speaking, broadly speaking, international equities are a

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little bit cheaper than U.S. equities so that makes them a little interesting.

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Where certain jurisdictions are in terms of their economic cycle, particularly

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if you think about Europe, for example, they're a little further along in the

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economic cycle than we are here in North America.

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There's much debate where we are in the cycle, most

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agree we're kind of in late stage  but then you take a look at a recent U.S.

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GDP print and it was pretty strong.

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So do we bump back into the mid-cycle?

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Time will tell on that. That's another macroeconomic factor that

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makes international interesting.

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The third thing I would say for international equities is everyone's been

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hyper-focused on U.S.

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There's a lot of rocks that can be turned in international and I think some

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opportunities will potentially emerge there.

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My last point is central banks.

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The landscape's changing a little bit there as well.

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If we kind of rewind till end of the year the amount of cuts that were kind

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of getting baked in or forecasted by the market, particularly

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around Canada, was maybe one more cut next year.

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I think that's moved up a little bit to some extent.

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I think the one factor that both the Canadian Central Bank and the

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U.S. Federal Reserve are grappling with right now is that inflation is still

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a little bit elevated.

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In Canada we have the 1% to 3% band so there's a little bit more flexibility

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from the BoC's perspective. We're kind of hovering close to the high end of the

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band there, that 3%. In the U.S.

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it's similar, they're hovering around kind of the high 2s in terms of inflation

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but they also have a dual mandate.

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They have to maximize employment as well as maintain a 2% inflation target.

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It'll be interesting to see how the central banks react to this current

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environment with their central bank policy.

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Given that recent GDP print that I mentioned earlier for the

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United States, which was quite strong, it'll be really interesting to see how

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many more potential cuts the Fed might be able to get in 2026.

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We just have to wait and see the next moves from the Federal Reserve and the

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Central Bank here in Canada.

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Last year there was a lot of talk about are we in the mid or late part

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of the business cycle, what are your thoughts on that going into 2026?

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The current GDP print out of the U.S.

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doesn't necessarily suggest late cycle.

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Late cycle you typically see kind of

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a slowing of growth and we had a fairly strong GDP print.

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Again, it was one quarter so one quarter does not make a trend necessarily.

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If we rewind a few years we were in a similar setup where we were kind of late

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stage and then everyone said, oh, actually I think we're back in the mid-stage.

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It'll be interesting to see in the United States if ultimately we can

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all agree or have a better idea to think maybe we've moved back into the

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mid-stage and we're no longer in that late stage.

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In Canada a little bit of a different story.

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GDP continues to be a little subdued

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so the probability that we're in late stage is probably a little bit higher

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than the U.S. but I think we'll get a little more visibility over the next

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couple of quarters here.

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Andrei, you mentioned international equities, can you expand on how the

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international side of things could shine in 2026?

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We're continuing to see a pickup in interest there.

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As I mentioned, the valuation is a factor there

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and just because something's cheaper doesn't mean you should buy it, for sure,

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but when you're thinking about opportunities and risk-rewards here

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there's a case there.

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I think what folks are thinking about is a little bit of diversification as

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well. We've had such a great run in these U.S.

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tech names. Most people have been overweight those

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tech names, those growthy tech names.

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Most people have been overweight the U.S.

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So just thinking about how they can diversify their portfolio a little bit

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more, you know, international is certainly a spot where we're seeing interest

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and I think those factors are a reason.

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Absolutely. Now, you talk about diversification, ETFs and our ETF

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product line could be one strategy where you could diversify your portfolio.

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How can an investor fold in ETFs into their strategy?

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What's great about the ETF market is it's come such a long way over the last 20

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or so years. If we rewind the clock back 20, 30

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years ago it was primarily kind of a passive dominated market.

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When we take a look at the ETF market now it essentially has everything under

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the sun. It's got passive, it's got factor, smart beta, it's

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got fully active mandates across a multitude of different asset classes,

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whether that's equity, your traditional equity fixed income.

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There's obviously a lot of option-based strategies that are coming to market

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so a lot of bespoke strategy providing different

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risk-reward profiles but also different ways that you can manage

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risk or set your portfolio up as well.

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For example, you may be overweight in your

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portfolio U.S. equity growthy names.

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There's many ways you can diversify.

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You can diversify geographically, look for international mandates.

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You can even diversify from a factor perspective, there's

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certain factors that have a weaker correlation, provide a little bit more

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diversification relative to growth names, for example, U.S.

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value historically. You may want to add in some satellite positions to

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reduce some of your growth exposure and growth risk in that fashion.

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There's a lot of ways to do it.

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The market has grown so substantially that there's no shortages of

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ways that you can use ETFs to either manage risk in your portfolio,

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put satellite positions in your portfolio, take tactical views and

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apply them through the use of ETFs.

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It's a great tool to manage your portfolios and there's a lot of different ways

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to do it.

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And obviously one way is to talk to your financial advisor, get

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started in the brand-new year and figure out where you could diversify

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and strategize, obviously, in your investment portfolios.

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Now, Andrei, another big factor weighing on investors'

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minds are geopolitical risk. I mean, lots of headlines out there as we begin

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the new year. What should investors do and consider when looking

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at those types of topics?

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It's something that can play a big or a

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small role depending on the circumstance.

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Particularly when something pops up

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new there's a lot of uncertainty.

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People don't necessarily know what the downstream impacts are going to be.

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We can talk about the current situation in Venezuela, for example.

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Something that was cropping up is what does this mean for oil prices?

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I think a lot of folks are trying to distil that and figure out what it

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ultimately means. There's what are the geopolitical implications and then

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downstream of that is what are the implications to investing in financial

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markets. Certainly early on in those situations there can be a little bit

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of volatility, a lot of uncertainty in terms of what ultimately is going to

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happen.

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It does create some noise from time to time.

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It is something that we always think about.

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The issue with some of these events is sometimes you can't see them

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coming. Again, these events that crop up,

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your biggest arrow in

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your quiver to combat these types of events is diversification.

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If you are well diversified, don't put all your eggs in one basket.

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If something does crop up somewhere in the world geopolitically you have

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that diversification in there to cushion any potential downfalls from the

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situation.

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Absolutely. Lastly, overall, Andrei, as we look into 2026

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what should investors keep top of mind?

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It's a good question. For me, at the start of the year it always provides a

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good opportunity to take a look at your portfolio and take a look where are my

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exposures, where are my risks, what are the big risks for

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next year? You mentioned geopolitical risks there as well.

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Economy is top of my mind right now.

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We're grappling here with where we are in the business cycle.

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Then AI as well. A lot of us have been overweight so the question is,

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is this going to continue? How much longer does it continue?

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Should I take a little bit of risk off and diversify a little?

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We have come a long way in those names and pullbacks do happen.

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It may not be the end of the trend but pullbacks do happen so just questioning

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whether or not we want to be a little bit diversified on the equity side of the

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ledger going into 2026.

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Andrei, thank you so much, always a pleasure to have a chance to chat and get

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your insights and perspectives. Thank you so much.

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Thanks for having me.

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And thank you for watching The Upside.

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