The Upside: Breaking down the BoC rate decision – and what comes next

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<b>Subtitles are AI Generated</b>

 

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Hello, and welcome to The Upside. I'm Jordan Chevalier.

 

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The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2 1/4% this

 

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week. While the hold was largely expected what does the decision

 

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signal for the economy here in Canada, and what should investors watch

 

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for in global markets?

 

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Joining me today to share his perspectives is portfolio manager and member

 

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of Fidelity's Global Asset Allocation team, David Tulk.

 

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David, thank you for being here.

 

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Thank you for having me.

 

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As I mentioned off the top, the Bank of Canada held its rate steady

 

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this week. Did anything about that decision surprise you?

 

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No, I think this was one of those decisions that everybody more or less

 

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expected so it was fully priced into the market.

 

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I think all economists out there also felt that this was the decision the bank

 

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would make. When you go through the statement and you try and figure out a

 

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little bit more to what the bank is thinking there were a couple of things that

 

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I think jumped out to me.

 

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I mean, first and foremost the bank is still managing through tremendous

 

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amounts of uncertainty. Obviously, we have elevated geopolitical stresses, we

 

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have ongoing trade tensions, we have a lot of things that the bank's trying to

 

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understand. I think they're honestly trying to follow the Hippocratic Oath

 

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of do no harm. If they don't have enough information to tilt them

 

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one way or the other their path of least resistance is to keep

 

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policy unchanged.

 

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Another part I think that was really important, to me, at least, is that their

 

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outlook for the Canadian economy is starting to brighten somewhat.

 

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This is something that we've been waiting to see for quite some time.

 

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Canada has struggled economically for a fair length

 

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of time and any sort of light at the end of the tunnel I think needs to be

 

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viewed very optimistically, and it's reassuring from my perspective to see that

 

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the Bank of Canada is also starting to see a little bit of that optimism as

 

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well.

 

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David, that's great. Now, shifting to the trade story.

 

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There's been recent trade developments, how are those developments

 

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shaping your outlook for the Canadian economy?

 

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It's certainly a point of uncertainty.

 

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We are now in this sort of rolling one year negotiation or renegotiation,

 

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revisiting the CUSMA trade framework.

 

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I think this is something that, again, we'll have to watch very carefully.

 

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At least we know that there's another decade or so while

 

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this trade agreement certainly remains in place so we will be revisiting it but

 

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ultimately that long-standing relationship that really has defined North

 

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American trade, I think that more or less is going to remain in place.

 

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Hopefully, that allows, I think, companies to try to understand and

 

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plan in that environment.

 

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I also think that the Bank of Canada noted this as well that companies are

 

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starting to adapt. One of the things that's really important for Canada

 

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U think is to try and find ways to diversify their trade.

 

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Now, it's very difficult to entirely disconnect from the US economy,

 

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the geographic proximity. The very close linkages that exist between the

 

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two countries is really important and needs to be respected but if you're

 

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looking for growth to improve on the margin, trying to get a sense of looking

 

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at other countries and trying to pivot your business to export more towards

 

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them that can only be a positive thing.

 

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This is going to, again, take some time but if growth is happening on

 

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the marginal we need to view that positively.

 

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That's very much part of the Bank of Canada's narrative that things are

 

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expected to brighten from this point forward.

 

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Could there be potential opportunities for Canada there within these

 

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negotiations? Tell us about that.

 

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Yeah, absolutely. I mean, Canada has a lot to offer both to the United States

 

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as well as Mexico so there is obvious need for a trade

 

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agreement between these two countries. Again, a lot of the linkages between the

 

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economies need to be respected.

 

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Canada needs to understand that they're going up against a much larger economy

 

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that, unfortunately, does hold most of the cards in this relationship.

 

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On the margin I think there is certainly scope for agreement on specific

 

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industries or certain parts of the economy but ultimately I think we are

 

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a price-taker, if you will, in a lot of these developments.

 

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Again, if you think about other things that are going on in the world, we've

 

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talked a bit about geopolitical sources of uncertainty, that's something that

 

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could also put Canada in a relatively good spot as well.

 

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That's something that we need to play to our strengths and hopefully we start

 

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to see that continue as time goes on.

 

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David, you mentioned geopolitical risk and uncertainty.

 

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I'd like to stay there for a bit. Are there specific things that you and the

 

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team are looking at right now?

 

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Yeah, absolutely. The conflict in the Mideast is certainly top

 

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of mind. It just goes to show that these things are exceptionally

 

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difficult to try and predict.

 

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It did look like things were maybe improving, now it looks like we're right

 

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back in the thick of it as well.

 

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To me, these geopolitics are things that speak to

 

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wider trends in the economy.

 

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My advice for investors is to try to separate yourself

 

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from the churn or the headlines and try and understand these bigger themes that

 

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are at play. The big theme that I think this is indicative of is

 

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really just a fracturing of the global order.

 

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Part of this is the US stepping back from its role at the

 

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centre of the global economy.

 

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The challenging thing here is that there's no obvious other country or other

 

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region that can really step into the breach.

 

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That does put us in this position of a very multi-polar world that,

 

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unfortunately, will have a lot of volatility in it.

 

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Again, as you think about what are some of those consequences, I think one

 

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consequence of an increasingly multi-polar world is more of a

 

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focus on securing commodities, trying to strengthen supply chains, try

 

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to just look at strategic reserves of commodities.

 

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That's where something, again, a country like Canada can really stand out

 

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because we have a lot of these at home. We have a very robust legal system.

 

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We exist in a part of the world that we have the potential

 

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of exporting into the US and into other countries.

 

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That's really the advantage that I think Canada has and we've been taking steps

 

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to try to capitalize on that theme.

 

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David, that's fascinating. We've mentioned policy rates, geopolitical

 

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risk and trade tensions.

 

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How are all of these things coming together and shaping your portfolio

 

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construction outlook right now?

 

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There's, obviously, a lot going on.

 

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Fingers crossed for a quiet rest of the summer but I don't think we'll be that

 

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lucky. When we think a little bit about what we're trying to invest around,

 

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first and foremost, our view on Canada has

 

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increased and has become more optimistic since the start of the year, and even

 

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into last year as well.

 

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The fact that the Bank of Canada is now also speaking to that theme

 

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as well is really reassuring. We've seen other investors and

 

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Canada's place in the world start to improve as well.

 

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That's a theme that is very central to the way we've positioned our multi-asset

 

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class funds and I think it has a fair longevity as well.

 

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We're really focused in on that as well.

 

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The other part which the Bank of Canada mentioned is just

 

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all the geopolitics, all the uncertainty, it just really speaks to the notion

 

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of wanting to be diversified.

 

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What we're trying to do in our funds is have allocations into commodities,

 

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allocations into various fixed income plus sectors, really things that I think

 

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provide a traditional sense of diversification away from the equity risk,

 

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because the backdrop of the equity market is still pretty constructive.

 

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We see very strong earnings environment,

 

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economic growth in a lot of major economies is also fairly robust,

 

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but we know that this has been going on for a while, valuations are looking a

 

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little stretched so you want to still have an overweight to equities, and

 

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that's what we have, but you want to be also mindful that there are some things

 

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that will go bump in the night that can add some more volatility so you want to

 

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hedge a little bit of that equity risk.

 

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You can use bonds traditionally but what we've noticed is that bonds may not

 

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be that universal form of diversifier.

 

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We have to be a little more creative and that's where commodities and

 

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other asset allocation decisions that we've made play an increasingly important

 

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role. That, again, just feels very consistent with the world that the Bank of

 

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Canada described as well.

 

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Right. David, that's the team's perspective and that's extremely helpful.

 

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If I'm an investor and I'm sitting at home looking at all of this uncertainty

 

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what's one message that you would like to sort of convey or leave them with?

 

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Yeah, absolutely, it's the necessity of diversification.

 

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Again, these headlines are fast and furious.

 

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You think you're out of the woods on one issue and then you realize you're

 

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right back in the thick of it.

 

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That type of environment makes it very difficult to try and trade the

 

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ins and outs of this type of environment.

 

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Again, what I would really try to reinforce for investors is to take yourself

 

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out of the here and now and think very much about these trends on a longer term

 

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basis. As that unfolds you want to make sure that you've got the right

 

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degree of diversification.

 

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Equities are a really important part of a portfolio, they're the way that you

 

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generate wealth over the long term, but understanding how to hedge that equity

 

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risk and finding different vehicles to do that, that's really the essence of

 

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diversifications. It's something that we as portfolio managers try to bring

 

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into these funds every day.

 

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David, you and the team just published your latest thought leadership paper.

 

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It's titled "Who Wins When AI Works".

 

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That paper is available on fidelity.ca now.

 

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I do want to talk a little bit about that paper.

 

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What prompted the research, what prompted you and team to kind of look at AI

 

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and the valuation story a little more closely?

 

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Yeah, absolutely. AI is the story of the year.

 

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It's amazing we've made it thus far in this conversation without bringing up

 

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AI. Obviously, it's had a huge influence on the market.

 

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As we reflect on the first half of the year the vast majority of the gains that

 

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we've seen in equity markets has been driven by AI and technology more

 

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generally. We need to respect that.

 

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It's an important theme going forward. I think a lot of

 

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the market moves are really contingent on what's happening in the

 

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AI story. As we think a bit about the summer, and hopefully people will have a

 

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chance to relax, we wanted to maybe take a step back from the headlines and try

 

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to put AI in a much wider context.

 

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That's really the motivation of the paper, to say AI is likely

 

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going to be a very transformative technology.

 

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When we look at prior types of technology that have that impact on

 

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the economy we want to understand what the long term implications are,

 

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especially when we think about the influence on corporate behaviour

 

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but also on labour.

 

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We think about how to allocate between the two of those decisions and try to

 

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understand what the long term implication really is.

 

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That's really what we try to do in the paper. We try to sketch an outline of

 

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all of the impacts that AI might have on the economy and then try

 

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to understand how much of that is really priced into the market today.

 

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If we're taking a sort of holistic look at this paper what's one thing that you

 

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can say. If you're interested in this, there's the AI story but if you are an

 

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investor at home what's a key takeaway from that paper that people should be

 

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interested in?

 

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I think, again, it comes to the notion of looking maybe not just at the next

 

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headline, not trying to chase the next chip order and figure out what that

 

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looks like relative to expectations, but try to understand how businesses and

 

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how the economy will try to incorporate AI.

 

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Right now what we've seen is a lot of investment in building out the

 

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technology. What we've seen less of is how that technology will be

 

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utilized by companies, by people, by countries,

 

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and thinking a bit about some of those implications.

 

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I think that really sets you up for a long term view that you can try to

 

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use in your portfolios to bring these ideas into an investment theme.

 

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That's really what we want to do as well.

 

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David, that's excellent. Thank you so much for being here today.

 

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The paper again is called "Who Wins When AI Works".

 

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It's available on fidelity.ca now.

 

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Thanks again, David.

 

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My pleasure.

 

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five-star rating.

 

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Fidelity Mutual Funds and ETFs are

 

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available by working with a

 

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financial advisor or through an

 

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online brokerage account.

 

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Visit Fidelity.ca slash howtobuy

 

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for more information.

 

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While on Fidelity you can also find

 

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more information on future live

 

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webcasts.

 

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Don't forget to follow Fidelity

 

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Canada on LinkedIn, YouTube,

 

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Instagram, or X.

 

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We'll wrap things up today with a

 

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quick disclaimer.

 

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The views and opinions expressed on

 

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this podcast are those of the

 

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participants, and do not necessarily

 

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reflect those of Fidelity

 

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Investments Canada ULC or its

 

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affiliates.

 

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This podcast is for informational

 

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purposes only and should not be

 

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construed as investment, tax, or

 

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legal advice.

 

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It is not an offer to sell or buy or

 

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an endorsement, recommendation, or

 

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sponsorship of any entity or

 

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security cited.

 

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Read a fund's prospectus before

 

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investing. Funds are not guaranteed.

 

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Their values change frequently and

 

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past performance may not be

 

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repeated. Fees, expenses, and

 

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commissions are all associated with

 

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fund investments.

 

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Thanks for tuning in.

 

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We'll see you next time.