The Upside: Going global – 2025’s shift from U.S. market dominance

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Subtitles are AI Generated.

 

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Hello, everyone, and welcome to The Upside.

 

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I'm Kyle Cheropita.

 

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Global stock markets in 2025 have been defined by a turbulent first half

 

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marked by a tariff-driven crash, fueled by a recovery, fueled by trade

 

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deal optimism and strong corporate fundamentals.

 

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AI and tech innovation continue to drive growth, particularly in the U.S.

 

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Amid uncertainty investors have moved towards gold as a safe haven while

 

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European, US, and Canadian markets have all traded off being hotter or colder

 

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at different times of the year.

 

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Tom Stevenson, Investment Director at Fidelity International, joins us today to

 

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share what he is seeing from London. Tom, good afternoon.

 

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How are you?

 

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Hi, Kyle, I'm very well. Thanks for having me on.

 

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Oh, thank you for joining me today. Now, we'll get to markets in a sec.

 

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First off, you were in Canada this summer.

 

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You had a great vacation, you were telling me about this when we spoke back

 

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in July that it was upcoming at the time, how was it, how did you find

 

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Vancouver Island?

 

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I had a wonderful trip to your beautiful country.

 

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As you say, I was over on Vancouver Island and made

 

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it all the way over to the Pacific coast, did a bit of, well, tried to do a bit

 

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surfing, it's more difficult than it looks.

 

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Did you stay up at all? Did you get up and just stay up on the board at all?

 

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I stayed up very briefly.

 

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How was the food out there on Vancouver Island?

 

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Fantastic, some lovely seafood.

 

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Just had a really, really good trip. I had a couple of weeks out there, it was

 

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great.

 

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That's fantastic. Well, I'm glad you had a great summer and I'm thankful that

 

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you're able to join us today. Let's get to the markets.

 

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Now, we spoke, I think it was early July last time, what have you been seeing?

 

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Just to kind of recap Q3, paint a picture for us to start things off.

 

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Absolutely. You painted the picture there of a very interesting

 

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year in the markets.

 

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The market sort of peaked in about February, we then had all that tariff shock

 

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back in April and the markets really fell pretty sharply

 

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by about 20% or more between February and April.

 

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Since April we've had what I would characterize as a pretty remarkable

 

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recovery in markets, certainly in

 

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the U.S. market closest to those tariff issues but

 

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really all around the world. Whether you've been investing in

 

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the UK or Europe, Japan, China, the U.S.,

 

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all over the place, markets have done extraordinarily

 

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well.

 

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You look at somewhere like Japan, for example, since April the market

 

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is up by about 35%.

 

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That's the same story in the U.S.

 

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Europe and China may be up more than 20%,

 

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a little bit less than that in the UK but overall very strong markets.

 

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Very interesting Q3.

 

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Absolutely. A lot of that has come ...

 

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well, it was Q2 and Q3, really.

 

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It's been more or less a straight line.

 

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Markets have just carried on rising for the last six months.

 

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Wow. Now, I did want to talk to you about inflation and interest rates

 

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as well. Can we look at that for both Europe as a whole and England,

 

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maybe let's start with inflation first, what do you see in there?

 

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Yes, well, actually quite different stories.

 

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I mean, here in the UK  inflation is proving to

 

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be pretty sticky, a bit of a problem for policy makers.

 

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The Bank of England has a 2% target for inflation and

 

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it is currently running ...

 

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the last reading was 3.8%, it's expected to go to 4%

 

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next month in September.

 

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It's running at roughly twice the

 

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Bank of England's target.

 

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Slightly different story over the channel in Continental Europe

 

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where the most recent inflation figure was a bit softer

 

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than expected at about 2%.

 

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European inflation is bang in line with the

 

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European Central Bank's target.

 

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Here in the UK it's quite a bit above target.

 

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Now, how does that play into the interest rate discussion?

 

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There were some announcements last week, we can touch on the Fed and the BoC in

 

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a moment which both cut last week.

 

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Bank of England stayed at, I believe, 4%.

 

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How does that all play into each other?

 

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It plays pretty much as you would expect it to play.

 

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The Bank of England's hands are slightly tied.

 

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It can't really cut interest rates as

 

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fast as maybe it would like to because the UK economy is quite weak

 

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at the moment. I think the Bank of England would probably like to cut interest

 

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rates a bit faster than it can but while inflation is running at twice

 

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the target it really feels unable to.

 

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As you say, interest rates stayed at 4%.

 

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That makes the UK a bit of an outlier when it comes to both inflation

 

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and interest rates because in Europe, the rest of Europe, as

 

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I say, inflation a bit softer than over here in the

 

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UK and interest rates have already fallen.

 

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Interest rates in Europe have halved, basically, from 4% to

 

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2%. They're probably at about where they're going to end up.

 

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I think that that move ... the ECB, the European Central Bank, has been able

 

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to cut interest rates in a way that we haven't over here.

 

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Is there anything else in the rates story, that's something's happening in

 

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Europe that maybe us in Canada haven't heard about?

 

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No, I don't think so.

 

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I think that the European economy is a bit

 

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like here in the UK. It's struggling a bit.

 

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It's struggling a little bit with the whole tariff situation.

 

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That has led to a softening in the inflation story and

 

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that's feeding through to interest rates.

 

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What do you make of the recent cuts by both the Fed and the Bank of Canada?

 

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I think, you know, very interesting really.

 

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I think the rate cut in the U.S.

 

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is particularly interesting because if you look at

 

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the labour market in the U.S., it's

 

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beginning to soften but unemployment

 

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is still pretty low in the U.S.

 

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Inflation is slightly above target

 

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but nothing like as far above target as it is here in the

 

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U.S. I think there is a real question about how

 

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far interest rates can go from here.

 

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I think the market is anticipating quite a few cuts in interest rates

 

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and I think that Fed is a bit more cautious than that.

 

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I think we'll probably end up somewhere in the middle, maybe one or two more

 

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rate cuts for the rest of this year in the U.S.

 

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Then I think we'll get another pause, like we had for most of this year.

 

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I think the Fed will just wait and see what's going

 

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on with the ongoing impact of tariffs and what impact that's

 

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having on the economy before they decide to cut any further.

 

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We're getting some cuts from the Fed, and you mentioned off the top there

 

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record highs in the markets off of the lows that we had in April.

 

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Gold is also at all-time highs.

 

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What do you make of all of that?

 

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Well, in a way, it's slightly curious because if

 

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you look at the major asset classes,

 

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shares and bonds and commodities like gold,

 

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they're all telling sort of slightly different stories.

 

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Bond yields are quite high

 

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in some cases, particularly with long bonds, bonds which mature in

 

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quite a few years hence.

 

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That's saying that markets are a little bit concerned about inflation,

 

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a little bit concerned about growth.

 

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Gold, as you say, is hitting new highs.

 

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That's typically a sign of slight anxiety amongst

 

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investors. They're slightly nervous about

 

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all the uncertainty that there is in the world.

 

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We know there's lots of uncertainty in the word but at the same time

 

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stock markets are really riding high.

 

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I mean, they are very, very strong all around the world.

 

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You sort of think, well, they can't all be true at the time

 

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so I wonder how this is going to resolve itself.

 

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For the time being it is how it is.

 

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Investors in the stock market are pretty confident.

 

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Investors in the other markets seem a bit more nervous, if you like.

 

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Now, we're not one to make predictions but where do you think things could go

 

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in the next few months? It is an interesting story to look at the different

 

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angles to it.

 

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Well, it feels to me, if you look at the stock market it feels to me like

 

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momentum is on the side of the markets at the moment.

 

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There are three main drivers of where the market is at the moment.

 

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Company earnings, company earnings are pretty strong at the moment.

 

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We had second quarter earnings season, was actually a bit better than

 

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expected. Quite soon, within the next few weeks, we'll have the third quarter

 

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earnings season. Expectations are that earnings will grow at

 

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about 7% year-on-year.

 

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Now, what tends to happen during a result season is that

 

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the expected growth rate actually rises because results come in a bit

 

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stronger than anticipated and that pushes up the

 

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growth rate. It's entirely plausible that we'll get another quarter of maybe

 

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10% earnings growth.

 

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That's pretty strong.

 

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That's enabling the second key factor for markets, valuations,

 

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to push higher. Valuations are pretty strong

 

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but they're not really stretched.

 

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It's not like some of the market booms that we've had in the past where

 

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valuations have really got very, very high to a worrying level.

 

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They are justified by earnings at the moment.

 

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The third element is what's happening with interest rates.

 

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I think interest rates are going to come down for the rest of this year.

 

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I think that, while it feels to me like this bull market has been going

 

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on for quite a long time, and that may be cause for a

 

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bit of concern, a bit of caution with investors, at

 

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the moment it feels like momentum is pretty strong in markets.

 

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Is there a certain region of the world where maybe that momentum is the

 

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strongest? You mentioned Japan as an example off the top as someone who's

 

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recovered quite strong from those April lows.

 

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Is Japan a success story or is there maybe another part of the word that's

 

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really strong right now?

 

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It is pretty much across the board but Japan has been strong.

 

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The Chinese stock market has actually been very strong under the summer.

 

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One of the drivers of that has actually being ...

 

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one of drivers of the U.S. stock market was the AI story, the technology

 

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story. That has actually been picked up in China

 

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and really throughout the year we've seen a lot of interest in

 

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Chinese innovation in technology and, in particular, with

 

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regard to AI.

 

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That is starting to look quite interesting.

 

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I think from an investor's perspective it's a

 

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good time to be investing because the growth is really across the

 

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board and it's possible to have a nicely diversified

 

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portfolio while still seeing gains, really, in many different markets

 

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at the same time.

 

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That's interesting. Now, just to follow up on that I wanted to link this back

 

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to something we talked about in July.

 

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In that show you were talking about the case for U.S.

 

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versus the case for Europe.

 

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Are those still the two regions that we're sort of looking at in either or or

 

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is it really expanding to those other parts of the world?

 

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I think the story is really broadening out.

 

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I mean, back in the early part of the year Europe was really the strongest

 

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market outside the U.S.

 

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I think the main reason for that was that Europe for a very long time had been

 

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very out of favour and I there was an element of recovery.

 

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I think some of the people that I talk to in the markets now they're saying,

 

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well, actually a lot of that good news in Europe has

 

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now been priced in.

 

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I think investors are looking further afield for their diversification

 

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and that's why Asia, and, in particular, emerging markets in Asia,

 

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are really looking quite interesting.

 

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One of the benefits of a

 

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falling U.S. dollar, and the U.S.

 

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dollar has fallen by about 10% so far this year against other currencies, is

 

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that tends to spill over into good performance by emerging

 

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markets. Emerging markets often have debts denominated

 

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in the dollar so if the dollar falls the value of their debts is also

 

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diminished, and that's a good thing.

 

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Also, a falling dollar tends to help commodity prices.

 

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Commodities tend to be a big part

 

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of the overall earnings mix in emerging markets.

 

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I think emerging markets also look quite interesting at the moment.

 

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Is there a certain country, region or maybe sector within emerging markets

 

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that's standing out to you right now?

 

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I mentioned China and that does seem to be the most interesting

 

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place at the moment, particularly the technology side.

 

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The consumer is still a bit weak in China,

 

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actually, but the technology side is really doing well.

 

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The other big emerging market is India.

 

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India is one of the more

 

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highly valued, unusually for an Asian market.

 

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It's almost as highly valued as the U.S.

 

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market. I think of those Asian markets

 

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China is the more interesting.

 

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Tom, do you pay much attention to the frontier markets, the emerging markets

 

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of the emerging markets, at all?

 

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Well, I mean, I keep an eye on them.

 

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It's quite a changeable situation.

 

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Go back a couple of years and people were talking very positively about

 

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Indonesia, for example.

 

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There's a lot more anxiety about Indonesia now.

 

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There's some sort of political discord in the country and that's spilling

 

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over into the markets. Other markets which have done very well recently

 

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within that sort of slightly more frontier

 

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area, Korea and Taiwan have done very

 

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well. That's really a technology related story.

 

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I think there's a lot of spillover from this whole AI story which has, of

 

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course, been a major driver of developed markets but it's now spilling

 

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over into emerging markets as well.

 

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Interesting. I love getting your perspectives on England, Europe, other parts

 

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of the world, what are you seeing and, perhaps, liking about Canada right now?

 

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Is anything standing out to you?

 

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Canada, I think, is facing up to this changing

 

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relationship with the U.S., as the rest of the world is,

 

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frankly. I think the interesting thing for Canada is how it develops those

 

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links with countries like the UK.

 

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There's a

 

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lot of potential there which has maybe been forced on Canada but I think it

 

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creates some opportunities.

 

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Yeah, and it probably doesn't hurt that our Prime Minister was with

 

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the Bank of England at one point as well.

 

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Absolutely. It's a very close connection.

 

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Maybe just to follow up on that, can you think of anything from his term there

 

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that maybe would aid in this relationship that's building between the

 

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two countries right now?

 

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Well, I think the Prime

 

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Minister did a fantastic job when he was over here at

 

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the Bank of England. I think that he's held in very

 

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high regard for the way in which he managed,

 

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really, a global crisis.

 

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It was a particularly severe crisis here in the UK, just as it was in other

 

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countries.

 

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He did a very good job of managing that really very difficult

 

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time in a very effective, calm way.

 

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That's great. Now, Tom, as we look to wrap up today I was just curious, what is

 

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your outlook for the rest of the year? What are some of the big stories, themes

 

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that you're paying attention to as we move into Q4?

 

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I think the interesting thing is this balance between

 

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the very positive AI related

 

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technology growth story because clearly there is a lot of growth in the

 

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economy. It's being fueled also by

 

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lower interest rates and still continuing

 

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fiscal spending. I think there is strong growth story and it's the question

 

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of how investors balance that

 

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with the high valuations that we're seeing, the fact that the bull

 

16:50.075 --> 16:54.346

market has been running now for quite a long time and

 

16:54.346 --> 16:58.384

that the scale of the recovery from, certainly, over the last three years,

 

16:58.384 --> 17:02.521

the scale at the recovery from the lows that we saw back in 2022 has

 

17:02.521 --> 17:04.656

really been very substantial.

 

17:04.656 --> 17:08.861

I just think it's going to be an interesting

 

17:08.861 --> 17:12.798

... I think the rest of this year is going to be an interesting dynamic

 

17:12.798 --> 17:15.768

between those two competing forces.

 

17:15.768 --> 17:18.704

There's good news, there's also things to be concerned about.

 

17:18.704 --> 17:23.142

No one quite knows how it will pan out but for the moment, as I say,

 

17:23.142 --> 17:27.079

the force is with investors, the momentum is strong and I

 

17:27.079 --> 17:31.083

think while the music is playing you have

 

17:31.083 --> 17:32.851

to get up and dance.

 

17:32.851 --> 17:35.921

That's good. We appreciate your perspectives, Tom.

 

17:35.921 --> 17:38.891

I'm very curious to see what happens next myself.

 

17:38.891 --> 17:44.463

Now, if a Canadian wants to hear from you more where can they do that?

 

17:44.463 --> 17:48.467

I write and I broadcast here in the

 

17:48.467 --> 17:52.504

UK on Fidelity's UK

 

17:52.504 --> 17:56.809

website, fidelity.co.uk, lots of my material

 

17:56.809 --> 18:01.346

there. Also on LinkedIn, if you search for me under

 

18:01.346 --> 18:04.316

Tom Stevenson and Fidelity you'll find me on LinkedIn.

 

18:04.316 --> 18:08.253

All of my content at the Daily Telegraph where I write a

 

18:08.253 --> 18:12.291

weekly column, I post that on LinkedIn so that's probably the best way

 

18:12.291 --> 18:16.095

of accessing that content from me.

 

18:16.095 --> 18:20.365

That's great. Thank you, Tom. I know you'll also be joining Fidelity

 

18:20.365 --> 18:22.634

Canada's Fidelity Connects show in a few weeks.

 

18:22.634 --> 18:26.171

For investors on The Upside here we try to be a little bit lighter in our

 

18:26.171 --> 18:29.641

topics and you'll be going a bit deeper with Pamela Ritchie in a week.

 

18:29.641 --> 18:31.443

We look forward to seeing you on there.

 

18:31.443 --> 18:35.581

That show will also be available as a video podcast for anyone who wants it.

 

18:35.581 --> 18:39.518

Tom, final words. Thank you for joining us today, any final message that you'd

 

18:39.518 --> 18:43.021

like to leave with Canadians today?

 

18:43.021 --> 18:46.024

I think the final message I'd make is stick with it.

 

18:46.024 --> 18:49.995

This is a really interesting time to be investing in

 

18:49.995 --> 18:53.532

the markets and good luck with your investments.

 

18:53.532 --> 18:57.302

Thanks so much, Tom. You have a fantastic rest of your day and we'll catch up

 

18:57.302 --> 18:59.872

with you again shortly. Thank you.

 

18:59.872 --> 19:00.973

Thank you, Kyle.

 

19:00.973 --> 19:03.175

And thank you all for watching today.

 

19:03.175 --> 19:06.678

The Upside webcasts stream daily so please keep an eye on your inbox to not

 

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If you haven't done so already sign up for the Upside newsletter to not miss

 

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out. In addition to the live shows new video podcasts are released daily,

 

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19:23.462 --> 19:26.932

Thanks for watching today and I hope you'll join us again on the Upside.

 

19:26.932 --> 19:27.966

I'm Kyle Cheropita.

 

19:44.683 --> 19:49.121

Thanks for listening to, or watching, Fidelity Canada's The Upside podcast.

 

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20:18.116 --> 20:21.420

The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the participants

 

20:21.420 --> 20:25.757

and do not necessarily reflect those of Fidelity Investments Canada ULC or

 

20:25.757 --> 20:29.795

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We'll see you next time.

 

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Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time.