Market resilience amid global shifts: Insights from Jurrien Timmer - January 12, 2026
Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, shared his insights on market resilience amid geopolitical tensions, technological shifts, and changing economic fundamentals, highlighting how investors can make informed decisions and manage risk effectively in today’s complex financial landscape.
Here are some of the key points from his commentary.
Market resilience beyond headlines
Despite geopolitical shocks such as the incursion in Venezuela and ongoing international tensions, global markets have remained calm and resilient. The S&P 500 experienced only a minor dip and quickly stabilized as investors focused on earnings and interest rate trends rather than headline risks. With approximately 67% of global stocks trading above their 50-day moving average and 71% above their 200-day moving average, there is a broad-based uptrend extending beyond U.S. equities. This signals strong investor confidence in the fundamental health of companies worldwide amid uncertainty.
Broadening market participation and the AI revolution
Market leadership is evolving beyond mega-cap growth stocks, particularly the MAG7 hyperscalers driving the AI revolution. The equal-weighted S&P 500 index has accelerated faster than the market-cap-weighted index, indicating healthier market breadth and a rotation toward a wider array of stocks gaining momentum. The AI revolution is expected to drive productivity gains and economic expansion, potentially enabling markets to grow beyond current debt limitations. However, concentration risks remain a concern, and the sustainability of this broadening depends on continued innovation and adoption across sectors.
Global equity and commodity strength
Emerging markets and commodities are playing a significant role in portfolio performance. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index recently surpassed its 2021 highs, fueled by faster earnings growth outside the U.S.17% year over year compared to 13% in the U.S. Commodities such as copper, nickel, and silver are experiencing rising prices, reflecting structural supply constraints and growing demand driven by geopolitical fragmentation and the strategic importance of these resources. This trend offers opportunities to diversify and capitalize on secular growth and resource scarcity.
Commodities as strategic diversifiers
Commodities are increasingly recognized as essential portfolio diversifiers due to their low correlation with stocks and bonds. While commodities can be volatile, they provide inflation protection and are demand-driven in today’s fragmented global economy. The current environment suggests a potential new secular bull market in commodities, supported by geopolitical risks and structural supply limitations. Strategic incorporation of commodities can enhance portfolio resilience, especially during inflationary pressures or geopolitical uncertainty.
Earnings outlook and valuation considerations
Robust earnings growth continues to support market stability, with U.S. companies reporting a 13% year-over-year increase and international firms posting even stronger gains. The ongoing earnings season is expected to confirm this strength, although analysts project a moderation in growth from 14% to around 9% over the next five years, a still healthy pace. Despite valuations nearing historical peaks, sustained earnings momentum is critical to justify current market levels. Investors should monitor earnings trends closely, balancing optimism with caution to avoid overexposure in richly valued sectors.
Conclusion: strategic insights for investors
Today’s market backdrop reflects resilience supported by broader participation, innovation, and global growth trends. Commodities and emerging markets continue to add diversification, while steady earnings help anchor valuations. Investors should watch labour markets, inflation, and geopolitical developments for signals on policy and market direction. A balanced approach, mixing growth areas like AI with strategic allocations to commodities and emerging markets, can help manage risk. Staying current on earnings and macro data, and working with advisors to align strategies, can support more informed portfolio decisions in an evolving environment.
