Inside the AI shift reshaping markets and productivity: Insights from Mark Schmehl - March 24, 2026

A steady view amid market volatility

Despite recent market volatility linked to geopolitical developments, Mark emphasized that his view on the AI opportunity has remained unchanged. He explained that the pace of AI investment and adoption continues regardless of short‑term disruptions, and that recent market moves related to global events have not altered how he is thinking about the AI trade.

Public markets and the visibility gap in AI growth

A recurring theme in the discussion was the disconnect between private and public markets when it comes to understanding AI growth. Mark explained that while some investors believe the AI cycle may be nearing a peak, the ongoing acceleration he is observing in private markets tells a very different story. According to Mark, limited transparency around private companies’ operating results has made it difficult for public markets to fully appreciate the scale and speed of adoption. He suggested that when private companies go public it could help close this gap by making it easier for investors to see how fast demand for AI is growing and why companies need to keep investing in AI infrastructure.

Productivity gains as AI adoption accelerates

AI is already changing day‑to‑day work, particularly in knowledge‑based roles. He described how AI tools are increasingly embedded in workflows, especially in areas such as coding, data analysis and office productivity, allowing individuals and teams to focus on higher‑value tasks rather than repetitive work. He also outlined a familiar pattern of adoption across organizations. Initial scepticism is often followed by concern about job displacement, before giving way to rapid acceptance as users begin to see tangible productivity benefits. Over time, Mark suggested, companies tend to shift their focus from efficiency gains toward growth as AI enables them to do more with existing resources.

From a broader economic perspective, Mark believes these productivity gains could support faster growth by easing long‑standing labour constraints, particularly in office‑based and analytical work.

Where AI is and is not transforming industries

While AI adoption is widespread, Mark emphasized that its impact is uneven across sectors. He noted that industries such as healthcare and consumer goods are already using AI to accelerate research, streamline development processes and shorten time to market for new products. At the same time, many physical, asset‑heavy industries such as transportation, logistics and resource‑based sectors are less directly affected by AI‑driven efficiency gains. In these areas, physical constraints remain largely unchanged, which may cause them to become bottlenecks in a faster‑moving, AI‑enabled economy. This contrast, he suggested, underscores the importance of understanding where AI can meaningfully improve productivity and where traditional limitations continue to shape outcomes.

Debunking overcapacity concerns in AI infrastructure

Mark also addressed concerns about whether the build‑out of AI infrastructure could eventually lead to overcapacity. He argued that comparisons to past technology cycles are imperfect, noting that demand for AI computing resources continues to expand as new use cases emerge. Ongoing improvements in engineering efficiency, including better performance per unit of energy, are an important part of how the industry manages rising compute needs. In his view, energy remains a challenge to be solved, but one that continues to benefit from technological progress rather than acting as a hard constraint on growth.

Navigating volatility with a long‑term perspective

Mark offered his guidance for navigating periods of market volatility. Drawing on experience, he emphasized the importance of responding thoughtfully rather than emotionally, focusing on long‑term objectives and minimizing mistakes during uncertain periods.

Conclusion: Positioning for an AI-driven future