Policy, politics and profitability: Insights from Denise Chisholm and Greg Lowman - December 4, 2025
Denise Chisholm, Director of Quantitative Market Strategy, and Greg Lowman, VP, Digital Advocacy and Policy Communications shared their insights on the evolving market landscape shaped by economic indicators, legislative changes, political shifts, sector-specific trends and trade policy uncertainties as the year draws to a close.
Here are some of the key points from their commentary.
Employment: The pulse beneath the surface
Initial jobless claims remain “benign,” signaling a steady employment environment. Denise pointed to corporate profitability as the true north for anticipating job growth. For those tracking market cycles, she advised a dual focus: keep an eye on both employment data and profitability metrics to gauge the health of the economy.
Legislative shifts: building blocks for market confidence
Legislative moves have set the tone for 2026. The extension of Trump-era tax cuts and the passage of the debt ceiling bill have together lowered the effective corporate tax rate by about seven percentage points. Denise and Greg underscored the historical significance of these reforms, noting their role in supporting durable earnings growth and GDP expansion. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” isn’t just political theater, it’s a foundational piece for equity markets as the new year approaches.
Healthcare: defensive moves and policy puzzles
Healthcare emerged as a sector in transition. Denise described a landscape where stocks are cheap and under-earning. Yet, the sector’s role has shifted: once a growth engine, healthcare now plays defense, typically outperforming when markets falter.
Navigating tariff turbulence
Trade policy remains a significant source of market uncertainty. The administration has multiple options to impose tariffs, including a potential 15% tariff under Section 301, but faces political and legal constraints. New sanctions introduced through the National Defense Authorization Act add complexity to international trade relations. These uncertainties can impact global supply chains, corporate earnings and sector valuations.
Conclusion: Staying agile in a shifting landscape
The financial markets in late 2025 are shaped by steady economic indicators, supportive legislative frameworks, shifting political tides and sector-specific nuances. Corporate profitability and tax reforms provide a positive foundation for equity markets, while regulatory delays, political uncertainties and trade policy complexities require careful attention.
